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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: NBA Playoff Elimination Game Totals: 2011
BetCrimes1984 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
BetCrimes1984
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#1
Posted: 4/25/2011 12:27:08 AM
Playoff basketball brings the the table sudden-death basketball, which is a scenario perfect for the manifestation of Under results - tight players executing deliberate plays isn't the ground upon which liberal scoring is made.

*An elimination game is when at least 1 team faces an end to their post season should they lose the game concerned straight-up.

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All results based on opening lines.

Since keeping records starting with the 03-04 post season, the stats I've accumulated for all Elimination games total results are as follows:


Overall

All Elimination Games: U/O 78-49-3

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 29-28-2
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 49-21-1


1st Round of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 39-27-1

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 20-15-1
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 19-12


2nd Round & onwards of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 39-22-2

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 9-13-1
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 30-9-1

Clearly the prime spots to take Unders are in a game 6 or 7 taking place during the 2nd round or beyond (a .225 losing %),
when both teams have a series win under their belts and are both winners of at least 2 games in the current series.

The one team to prove the exception (whose results I haven't incl. in the above figures) is - no suprise - Phoenix....

Phoenix Suns

Elimination games they win SU: O/U 8-2
Elimination games they lose SU: O/U 2-4

For Phoenix it doesnt matter the nature of the game (4, 5, 6 or 7) they're playing in, or the Round they're playing it in, in relation to the final total result: it's down to their SU performance.

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#2
Posted: 4/25/2011 12:27:59 AM

Results in so far...

CHC @ IND - Game 4: Under
MIA @ PHI - Game 4: Under
BOS @ NYK - Game 4: Under

 

Games coming up...

OKA @ DEN - Game 4:
IND @ CHC - Game 5:
PHI @ MIA - Game 5:
ATL @ ORL - Game 5:

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#3
Posted: 4/25/2011 12:28:33 AM
Thanks!
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#4
Posted: 4/27/2011 10:42:19 AM

CHC @ IND - Game 4: Under
MIA @ PHI - Game 4: Under
BOS @ NYK - Game 4: Under
OKA @ DEN - Game 4: Under
ATL @ ORL - Game 5: Under
IND @ CHC - Game 5: Over

PHI @ MIA - Game 5:
MEM @ SAS - Game 5:
DEN @ OKA - Game 5:

 

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#5
Posted: 4/27/2011 12:21:00 PM
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#6
Posted: 4/27/2011 12:34:27 PM
Betcrimes,

Thank you very much for sharing this.  It is people like you and stats like you have just posted that keep me coming back to covers.

Thank you for your effort and more importantly, sharing your findings.



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#7
Posted: 4/27/2011 1:53:41 PM
GOOD STUFF 
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#8
Posted: 4/27/2011 3:00:48 PM

Thank you

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#9
Posted: 4/27/2011 3:34:34 PM
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#10
Posted: 4/27/2011 3:50:08 PM
Damn good info.  

Thanks for keeping track and posting.
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#11
Posted: 5/12/2011 6:41:38 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by BetCrimes1984:

2nd Round & onwards of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 39-22-2

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 9-13-1
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 30-9-1

Clearly the prime spots to take Unders are in a game 6 or 7 taking place during the 2nd round or beyond (a .225 losing %),
when both teams have a series win under their belts and are both winners of at least 2 games in the current series.

I know the Miami game went over yesterday.  But today I will try the Under Atlanta

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#12
Posted: 5/12/2011 6:45:11 PM
BC1984 
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#13
Posted: 5/12/2011 7:41:22 PM
lets go under 179!
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#14
Posted: 5/12/2011 10:39:55 PM

Guys another Rnd 2 game 6 goes Under

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Posted: 5/12/2011 10:57:50 PM
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#16
Posted: 5/13/2011 3:34:40 AM
UNDER on the OKC@MEM game. R2 G6 and elimination!
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#17
Posted: 5/13/2011 3:37:31 AM

I was waiting for someone to bump this
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#18
Posted: 5/13/2011 9:30:38 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by CallMeBruce:

UNDER on the OKC@MEM game. R2 G6 and elimination!

my concerns for taking the Under in the above mentioned game...

Memphis has had its 2 lowest regulation scoring efforts (86 & 72 pts) in these playoffs (11 games) through its last 3 games (w/the odd score out of the 3 - 91 pts - being its 4th= lowest total). These stat facts reflect on the following -

- MEM has not been held to less than 91 regulation pts in 3 straight games these playoffs.
- MEM has not been held to less than 99 regulation pts over 4 straight games this entire season.
- MEM this season off being held to 86 regulation pts or less averaged 101.5 pts in its next game, only once totaling less than 97 pts.

Everything, to me, says off such a pathetic offensive outing that Mypiss bounces back offensively here. Of course there's nothing that says they can't score 100 and win by 6+ pts and that would still equal an Under, but at this point for me OKC has all the energy, so I don't really expect their effort to be lacking, therefore I'd expect them to match Mypiss' scoring/making the game competitive ATS.

In short, Mypiss scoring 72 in the last game for me ruins this elimination Under spot.

 

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#19
Posted: 5/13/2011 12:35:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by canadiantruth:


I was waiting for someone to bump this

 

When I was watching the low scoring 1st quarter Miami/Boston game a couple days I thought to myself.  Damn it!!!!  It's an elimination game and I was supposed to take the under.  Luckily I forgot to, and the game went over after that low scoring 1st quarter. 

I didn't forget yesterday tho!! 

 

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#20
Posted: 5/13/2011 12:38:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BetCrimes1984:

my concerns for taking the Under in the above mentioned game...

Memphis has had its 2 lowest regulation scoring efforts (86 & 72 pts) in these playoffs (11 games) through its last 3 games (w/the odd score out of the 3 - 91 pts - being its 4th= lowest total). These stat facts reflect on the following -

- MEM has not been held to less than 91 regulation pts in 3 straight games these playoffs.
- MEM has not been held to less than 99 regulation pts over 4 straight games this entire season.
- MEM this season off being held to 86 regulation pts or less averaged 101.5 pts in its next game, only once totaling less than 97 pts.

Everything, to me, says off such a pathetic offensive outing that Mypiss bounces back offensively here. Of course there's nothing that says they can't score 100 and win by 6+ pts and that would still equal an Under, but at this point for me OKC has all the energy, so I don't really expect their effort to be lacking, therefore I'd expect them to match Mypiss' scoring/making the game competitive ATS.

In short, Mypiss scoring 72 in the last game for me ruins this elimination Under spot.

 

Thank you for this post.  Todays under will be avoided.  Usually when 2 strong trends clash and I still the the game, too often am I on the wrong side. 

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#21
Posted: 5/25/2011 4:18:58 PM

Elimination game tonight

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#22
Posted: 5/10/2012 5:58:29 AM
2nd round is around the corner
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#23
Posted: 5/10/2012 6:40:55 AM
Great thread OP, I will be looking for spots to follow your angle in the next round. May even start with chi/phi UNDER tonight.

Thanks for taking the time to do research, this post is a jewel among junk.
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#24
Posted: 5/11/2012 2:22:06 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MrBogey:

Great thread OP, I will be looking for spots to follow your angle in the next round. May even start with chi/phi UNDER tonight.

Thanks for taking the time to do research, this post is a jewel among junk.


thanks again OP
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#25
Posted: 5/11/2012 6:15:46 AM
You're welcome, Mr Bogey, but there is a new thread for 2012 (with updated stats), this is the 2011 version.
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