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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Thunder vs Spurs game 3 UNDER 206.5 and why
fever
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fever
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#1
Posted: 5/31/2012 5:24:20 PM

Spurs v Thunder under 206.5 – Game 3

Yup…everyone and their brother who I’m talking to today seems to think that the over is the easy play tonight off that 231 point output the other night (that also contained a boatload of free throws that contributed to the over getting killed) is going to repeat itself.

I haven't had a chance to peruse this board yet though so I don't know who the majority of the covers people are picking...I'm just telling you what I was hearing at the local watering hole this afternoon.  It doesn't matter.  I've hit the under and here's why.

Game two was a great spot to play the over and I think the books have given us a good number to play the under with here, especially off such a high scoring game.

As I noted in my game 1 write up, the Spurs have a tendency to take their foot off the throttle after high scoring games with the under going 6-1-1 in their last 7 games after scoring 100 or more points.  But also consider the fact that the Spurs scored 120 points their last game.  Game 3  road teams off 120 or more point performances are 6-1 “under” if the total is 208 or less in game 3 since 1996.

Also, keep in mind,  that in the last two seasons, the Spurs are a  8-1 “under” IN THE PLAYOFFS when the total is 193 or more. Furthermore, the Spurs are 11-1 “under” the last 5 seasons whenever they came off a SU or ATS home win in the playoffs.

Remember that both teams limited opponents to 96 ppg over the course of the season.  They can and should be able to hold each other to less than 100 each tonight, especially if the Thunder are serious about getting back into this series. You aren’t going to do it without tightening up on the defensive end.

Last game saw 3 OKC players score more than 25 points… they accounted for more than half of the teams output.  That feat hasn’t been accomplished since the Clyde Drexler days in Houston .. Yes, it is really THAT rare.

Talk about rarities … look at Parker’s output last game .. 34 points! He hasn’t done that in 5 seasons!

Forget for a moment the last game. I am making the argument that it was an anomaly, not the norm.

As I mentioned in the game 1 analysis, the Spurs have tightened up defensively these playoffs. Before the start of this series, they hadn’t allowed more than 92 points in 7 of the 8 games.
Consider that for both teams (using 206.5 or even 206 or for same of argument using game 1's total of 204)

Oklahoma

  • 4 of the 5 games vs. the Lakers would have gone under this total
  • 4 of the 4 games v Dallas would have gone under this total
  • The under is 1-1 in this series so far using tonight’s total.

Spurs

  • all 4 games vs. Clippers would have gone under this total
  • all 4 games vs. Jazz would have gone under this total
  • Again, 1-1 is the tally for this series so far.

So, in retrospect because we saw lower posted totals, it would appear as though the over has been cashing the ticket for these two teams in the playoffs.  

That’s why the Thunder went 7-2 "over" in their 9 playoff games before this series. Hwoever, It would have gone 8-1 "under" with a 204 total. Using a 206.5 total, the under would have gone 9-2 up to this point.

The Spurs went 7-3 "under" so far in the playoffs despite scoring 100 or more points 8 times.

That's a combined 15-4 "under" tendency we are dealing with using tonight’s 206.5 total.

Since 2000, all 3rd round game 3’s went 14-1 “under” when the home team was favored and the total was more than 182 points.

The Thunder need to win this game to get back into the series.  Already, being 0-2 they have put themselves in a pickle.  As games 1 and 2 showed, they aren’t going to beat the Spurs by trying to outshoot them.  The Spurs know too that they must slow them down playing away from home and will look to be a little more patient with the ball…I don’t expect 3 players for one team to score more than 25 points again in the same game.  I also don’t think that Parker will have another career game on the road in game 3 with the Thunder needing to win so badly.

Consider that teams coming home down 0-2 in the playoffs are 7-0 “under” the last 3 years with a posted total of 192 or more points. 

This is a product of teams knowing that they must defend better if they are going to get back into the series.

Feel free to agree or disagree….this is just my opinion and I’m sticking to it.

Cheers friends.

3 dimes on under 206.5

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#2
Posted: 5/31/2012 5:28:58 PM
and the only prescription. is more cowbell baby.
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#3
Posted: 5/31/2012 5:35:35 PM
You got a good read on the series so far .I'm on the low too . good luck
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#4
Posted: 5/31/2012 5:37:02 PM
Epic first and second post.

This line definally looks huge even after Game 1's total and my first instincts were under but these under plays just seems so sketchy because all the refs do are call fouls.

NBA has been almost unbearable to watch seeing foul after foul called that it's killing any opportunity at an under...But the public can't keep winning picking the over there has to be a "real" game one of these series.
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#5
Posted: 5/31/2012 6:07:05 PM
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#6
Posted: 5/31/2012 6:22:09 PM
Im on under 103 first half , nice write up , GL
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fever
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#7
Posted: 5/31/2012 6:27:06 PM

Thanks for the kind words. Now let's see some old time, walk up the court and manage the shot clock hoops tonight.

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#8
Posted: 5/31/2012 6:29:02 PM
Do u like the under 1h?
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#9
Posted: 5/31/2012 6:30:00 PM
Great write up, and my money is going on the under, because everything you say makes perfect sense. Doesn't mean it can't go over, but I prefer my money to have a reason behind the pick and you my friend have a boatload of reasons. Thanks for taking the time to share this info, and BOL.
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#10
Posted: 5/31/2012 8:06:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by fever:

Thanks for the kind words. Now let's see some old time, walk up the court and manage the shot clock hoops tonight.


That might be a stretch with these two teams..but anything less chaotic than Game 2 would be nice. The Spurs play with great energy at home, on the road they can be quite different. I don't care that they beat Utah & LAC on the road. Those teams would have a good shot of being swept by OKC as well.  

I like this play because I only have to look back as far as game 1.

Under was the correct play from tip off.

Good luck tonight sir
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#11
Posted: 5/31/2012 8:30:18 PM
Good write up but I think part about the series totals could have been left out because those were different teams & different situations.
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#12
Posted: 5/31/2012 11:13:52 PM
Great job! Your insight is much appreciated!
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#13
Posted: 5/31/2012 11:22:27 PM
good stuff fever !
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fever
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#14
Posted: 5/31/2012 11:38:05 PM
Man I love it when it cashes with 22 points to spare....no nail biting like that game 1 4th quarter. Thanks folks and congrats to those that rode along.
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#15
Posted: 6/1/2012 12:35:53 AM
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#16
Posted: 6/1/2012 2:29:31 AM
Great call Fever!!  I was originally on the UNDER but your post completely validated my play. I read your post about 5 times over today and after watching OKC interviews, everyone mentioned DEFENCE and I loved the 3 point inflation on the total after Game 2....perfect setup for the UNDER.

Keep up the great work :)
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#17
Posted: 6/1/2012 9:20:53 AM
where did u find all that greta information?

good job
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#18
Posted: 6/1/2012 10:01:18 AM
I'm thinking under in game 4 as well total posted is currently 204.
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#19
Posted: 6/1/2012 11:36:51 AM
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fever
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#20
Posted: 6/1/2012 1:15:53 PM
dastovski365 .... Hard work and a log of ATS database. I only keep playoff records. I rarely bet the regular season anymore....you never get a consistent effort......that changes come playoff time when eveything counts.

I bet a lot of $ on games....as a result, nvest a considerable amount of time looking at my plays. I added another dime before gametime....

Thanks for the kind words everyone. I wish they were all this easy. Lol. But they aren't.
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#21
Posted: 6/1/2012 1:23:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by fever:

dastovski365 .... Hard work and a log of ATS database. I only keep playoff records. I rarely bet the regular season anymore....you never get a consistent effort......that changes come playoff time when eveything counts.

I bet a lot of $ on games....as a result, nvest a considerable amount of time looking at my plays. I added another dime before gametime....

Thanks for the kind words everyone. I wish they were all this easy. Lol. But they aren't.
any plays today
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#22
Posted: 6/1/2012 2:18:55 PM
good call, nice  to see  your hard work paid off
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