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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: one [WIN] a day, let's all help each other and get [PAID]
darkmandave
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#201
Posted: 5/8/2013 1:49:21 AM
Brother man I think the spurs roll down gs tomorrow they have so much heart after golden state let that game slip way I think spurs go banannas.
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#202
Posted: 5/8/2013 5:59:25 AM
Hopefully you're all using the early games as homework to wager later in the series as the trends play out, treat it like a job and good
things will happen for you. Patience and discipline always prevail.
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darkmandave
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#203
Posted: 5/8/2013 7:07:06 PM
I like your patience so your letting these last two games play out then you will play your pick.
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#204
Posted: 5/8/2013 7:16:14 PM
patience is a vitrue

be cool and don't force anything. 

if youre strong, you will wait. if you are weak, you will force it.


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#205
Posted: 5/8/2013 7:21:14 PM
I think your sports gambling no. 3  is good as it must relate to money management.  Lots of caps feel your strong play should be bet more but even strong plays lose.
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tom-jerry
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#206
Posted: 5/8/2013 7:37:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tony2toes:

A good read for some of you out there:


10 COMMANDMENTS OF SPORTS BETTING

So you want to become a full-fledged member of the billion-dollar-a-year sports gambling industry, only you think you have what it takes to beat the masses? You’re think you're the next Jimmy the Greek?

There are ways to help “even the odds” in your favor.

The truth is there is only one proven way to win consistently (although having lady-luck on your side is also a major plus). You MUST know the sport you are betting on, and you have to pick out the games where the oddsmakers erred in setting the odds.

There’s no magic formula, no computer simulating system, there’s no “insider” secrets. But there are ways to increase your chances so you win more than you lose.

I like to call these the 10 Commandments of Sports Gambling.

1. Do not bet on sports if it affects your health. If you are a hard loser, if you have high blood pressure, a bad ticker, or just can’t let those bad beats go, then this isn’t the game for you because losing is inevitable. Betting on sports is like the stock market ... you’re going to win sometimes, and you WILL lose sometimes. The goal is consistency and longevity. Think marathon; not sprint!

2. If you pass the first commandment, and you really want to win money, then you must approach sports gambling as a job. It cannot be a hobby, and you cannot go about your business half-assed. Each spread (or game) is a business deal that you’ll either do, or you’ll pass on. A knowledgeable businessman should research each deal on it's merits, then decide. Going into a business deal without knowing anything about the teams, terms or circumstances usually results in bad business. Which means you go outta business real quick.

3. Bet the same amount of money on every game you bet. This one will cause a few arguments amongst some bettors, but it’s a common mistake among social or weekend betters. Even if you really like that one game, but only kind of like two other games, bet all three the same. When you put $500 on one, but only $100 on the others you’re only setting yourself up to fall hard. Sure the $500 game might cash in, but how many times has the $500 missed, dropping you into a hole you never recover from. There is no 5-star, 3-star, 1-star ... there is no “system” ... anyone that tells you these things is not a successful gambler unless they have extremely deep pockets to eat a 5- star loss every now and then.

4. Stay away from parlays, teasers, props and other exotic bets like first half/second half bets and the first 5 innings bets unless you are willing to just hand over cash. They are all a bookie’s (or sportsbooks) wet dream. Sure you get paid 10-to-1 if you hit a 4-teamer, but the chances of it happening, consistently, are about the same as your odds of sleeping with Heidi Klum. Instead of one bet on four teams, put your money on the four teams separately. That way when 3-out-of-4 win, you walk away a winner instead of cussing “that damn fourth team!” There’s a reason sportsbooks offer these bets and it’s not because they like to pay you 10-times your bet when they lose. It’s because they ALL put more money in their own pockets. The lure of fast money is too enticing for some people to not realize they’re walking into a trap.

5. Know when to walk away and don’t chase! This is obviously the biggest problem for most gamblers. How many times have you lost on a noon NFL game, dropped into a hole, then made it worse by betting a couple of afternoon games to try and make it up only to take it deeper without lube. Likewise, you win a noon game, then try and double it by betting an afternoon game only to lose and break even. DON’T FALL INTO THIS TRAP. Pick the games you’re going to bet on ahead of time, bet them, then walk away. Don’t compound your problems by trying to double it or win it back by betting on a game you didn’t want to bet on in the first place. Don’t chase by betting on the second half because you already lost the original bet in the first half. This is the hardest rule to follow sometimes because it goes against every gambling fiber in your body. But if you want to win, win consistently, you have to follow it.

6. The walk away rule also applies before the games as well. If you look at the point spreads in the morning and nothing appeals to you, don’t bet. Let’s face it, oddsmakers are good at what they do. Sometimes too good. You must remember that you’re looking for an oddsmaker’s mistakes, but if you have a hard time finding a game you like, take a day off and start fresh tomorrow.

7. Don’t bet on games if the odds have changed too much for your taste. If you like a game that has a spread of 3, only to get to your bookie and find out the odds changed to 4 1/2 ... stay away. It’s no longer the bet you thought it was, and therefore it’s no longer worth betting on. Different betters will give you a different level of variance, but I recommend using a point to point-and-half guideline. But you can determine your own comfort level about how far you’ll let the line move before it becomes a bad bet.

8. This one is called the “Bull Durham” rule after a line in the movie. “Don’t mess with a streak.” If you’re winning, don’t brag aloud to everyone, gloat or do anything to piss off the Betting Gods. Likewise, when you’re losing, don’t cry in your beer or piss and moan. Be like the athletes you’re betting on and try and stay on an even keel. When you win, act like you’ve been there before. When you lose, be mad but determined to do better next time.

9. Since you’re treating this like a job, do what every self-respecting human does whenever possible and take a vacation from betting. Take a week off every now and then to recharge the batteries. If you’re winning, this may go against the previous commandment, but pick and choose the best times of the year to step aside and take a break.

10. The last commandment pisses a lot of bettors off and takes some of the fun out of sports gambling for most, but it’s something you MUST DO to win constantly. DO NOT BET on your favorite team. If you’re honestly going to try and make money, you have to remain unbiased in every way. When you bet on your team, a large percentage of the time your judgment is clouded. Sit back and enjoy their games while looking at the scroll for other scores. If you must, betting on an over/under with said favorite team is a much smarter bet anyway, and easier on the heart and mind.

Following all of these rules will increase your chances at beating the house. If you are an “action junkie” and can’t stay away from parlays and teasers and all of the other traps discussed in this piece, then you will have a hard time following these rules and will find yourself reloading your bankroll more often then you cash out.

The bottom line is that you have to be smart about the plays you make. Be smart, do your homework and have fun and remember that you will not become a millionaire in one night betting on sports. Those are the exact kind of egomaniacs that sportsbooks are hoping to attract.


thx
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darkmandave
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#207
Posted: 5/8/2013 11:20:49 PM
Glad I layed off spurs only playing when Tony the Tiger pulls the trigger thank you for teaching us discipline.
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#208
Posted: 5/9/2013 1:12:53 AM
hey tony,

what if you were to pick for friday's game? what will you pick?

i know u dont do game 1-4 but just in case..
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#209
Posted: 5/11/2013 9:57:17 PM
Looking forward to the picks 
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MRxKrazz
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#210
Posted: 5/12/2013 1:56:17 AM
bump
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sdiamond7
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#211
Posted: 5/12/2013 9:16:56 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tony2toes:

Hopefully you're all using the early games as homework to wager later in the series as the trends play out, treat it like a job and good
things will happen for you. Patience and discipline always prevail.
 
Tony, you got the right idea here. I for one critique every play I make. You probably seen it on Stay with Certain Teams that makes you $$$.
All of know here, this game is a roller coaster ride - key is money management. In my last 22 (11-11) started hot 11-4 lost my last 7 and all is documented here. Still over 58% and was almost 60% in the NCAA. 
Key is to constantly learn something which some cappers replied to me with things I missed. Example: Liked LA and critique was centered on Blake playing good ball - capper chimed in and gave me heads up that he was a late scratch and done for the series. Definite slant in my original opinion - No Blake, No play.
GL to you from a big NYY fan and even bigger AP #46 fan.

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sdiamond7
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#212
Posted: 5/12/2013 9:26:52 AM
Tony, also stated in my Lessons and Comments topic: Gotta understand your wins and understand you're losses. You can cash but was on the wrong side and lost but was right just unlucky. 

One of many examples: Have GS large in the series - David Lee their best player goes down and Andre Miller plays the game of his life. GS could be 3-0 going into today. Just gotta work harder to cap your plays. 
Anybody can post options, it's important to note why and show your notes - I do in every play I post. Stay with Certain Teams that Make You $

Had a few add items I completely overlooked and made note of it. Bottom line who you like and why. Best of Luck to all.

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#213
Posted: 5/12/2013 12:00:11 PM
Appreciate all the wisdom you're providing the covers community with your thoughtful insight. It really helps, and having the right discipline will help to steer the thread in the right direction. Looking forward to completing this years playoffs with a huge profit.

I believe GS takes game 4 at home in Oracle, they've shown time and time again that they're considerable contenders, and understand that this is pretty much a must-win game for them. The pressure was on the Spurs to take back home court advantage, and they've accomplished that feat. I understand that they won't stop at that, but I believe the cinderella story Warriors will have a great opener to try and seal the game.

Tough pick, but if I'd have to play it I'd take GS +2. But of course, if Tony has taught us anything, it's to stay disciplined and be patient, so I'm a no play here.

Although I understand your philosophy to avoid parlays and exotics bets, what I must say is that Half bets, Quarter bets, and player props aren't necessarily bad bets or unfavorable in a bettors odds. I believe that these bets actually allow a bettor to creatively analyze parts of the game which can actually be accurate more often than not. This is one of the reasons why the juice on the lines are usually much higher. Just like you mentioned, the odds makers job is to generate a line that creates a 50-50 split of funds based off of perception. While this can be achieved to as much accuracy as possible, the effort it takes to try and even out every single line, such as player props or quarter bets, can be overwhelming even for Vegas. 

Here's an example of what I mean, I believe the Spurs take the 4th quarter here. The line at 4th Quarter Spurs -.5 is a winner. Pretty simple explanation, the Warriors are a rookie team playing against the most veteran team in the league. There has already been great evidence of this in games 1-3. The young Warriors have already shown time and time again that they've blown leads late in the game, while this is one of the Spurs strong points. Also, in a majority of the games the Warriors have won, they were from games where they had huge 3rd quarters and usually, a nice lead into the 4th, where the other team starts to slowly creep back and you see the young Warriors start to struggle finding the right shot and taking it with confidence, while also making critical mistakes. This matchup IMHO is the perfect scenario for a Spurs 4th Quarter bet, especially with this line.

Spurs -.5  4th Quarter!

Just giving my 2 cents, hope this post isn't a nuisance.
Best of luck to your choices and once again, looking forward to working with you and this community to get some winners and make a huge profit this playoffs! 
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#214
Posted: 5/12/2013 7:54:00 PM
7.5 underdogs on the warriors, Klay T had a off shooting day, Steph was limited on playing time and that early game foul trouble put GS in a hole. With Bogut emerging defensively, its hard to say no. The Spurs are a veteran team , which is their biggest strength and weakness. 

Just some analysis after 4 games of no bets

Nico
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darkmandave
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#215
Posted: 5/13/2013 1:08:37 PM
Tony are u still here
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#216
Posted: 5/13/2013 4:14:32 PM
pick for today bro
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MRxKrazz
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#217
Posted: 5/14/2013 2:33:06 AM
bump
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#218
Posted: 5/14/2013 9:16:25 AM
hi tony 

where are your picks for gsw sas?

also can you post your picks early for chi vs mia and mem vs oks?

tyvm
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MRxKrazz
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#219
Posted: 5/14/2013 6:39:14 PM
LOL keep checking back people. Free money never come easy guys.

Bump
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#220
Posted: 5/14/2013 6:46:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by darkmandave:

Tony are u still here


Yes, always around. As of now I don't have a strong play for the GS/SA Game 5 ..... will likely play Game 6 based on tonight's result.

As you have been seeing, these early games have been relatively
mundane in terms of pace, situations and outcome. Anything can
and has happened other than Miami taking care of business as
they're expected to.

Everyone should start posting their insight/thoughts on the
upcoming games 5-6-7 so we can all come to an agreement
and get paid.
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#221
Posted: 5/14/2013 6:56:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by miczz15:

hi tony 

where are your picks for gsw sas?

also can you post your picks early for chi vs mia and mem vs oks?

tyvm


If you're in dire need of insight and/or help making your pick you
can reach me anytime on Skype my ID is tony.covers

I'm wagering $1K-2K on the picks that I make and don't want to
just post picks for the sake of posting for you guys. I take it very
seriously and stick to my game plan, and want everyone else to
benefit from it too.

I could post picks on each and every game for some of you who
are wagering $50-$200 a game yet it's not my style. The amount
wagered may not be the main point yet winning is and picking
your spots (seeing something and acting accordingly) is.

I don't play to get action, I play based on trends and facts that
can be used to our advantage, as a team. When you see it it's
there and you go with it. Try not to ever force the action.
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MRxKrazz
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#222
Posted: 5/14/2013 6:58:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tony2toes:



If you're in dire need of insight and/or help making your pick you
can reach me anytime on Skype my ID is tony.covers

I'm wagering $1K-2K on the picks that I make and don't want to
just post picks for the sake of posting for you guys. I take it very
seriously and stick to my game plan, and want everyone else to
benefit from it too.

I could post picks on each and every game for some of you who
are wagering $50-$200 a game yet it's not my style. The amount
wagered may not be the main point yet winning is and picking
your spots (seeing something and acting accordingly) is.

I don't play to get action, I play based on trends and facts that
can be used to our advantage, as a team. When you see it it's
there and you go with it. Try not to ever force the action.
well said!
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MRxKrazz
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#223
Posted: 5/14/2013 7:02:55 PM
Just my 2 cents,

I think OKC come out and win one at home before lossing game #6 to Mem.

Agreed with you on the Sas Gs game.

Mia will win but 14.5 is WOW yet I can not lay 14.5 in anygame.

knicks @ pacers will provide some good wager tips for game 5 for us
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#224
Posted: 5/14/2013 7:14:20 PM
pacers -5 with all the knick injuries
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MRxKrazz
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#225
Posted: 5/14/2013 7:28:49 PM
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