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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL Playoffs
andarmac99 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#226
Posted: 2/2/2012 11:05:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SharpShooter8:

Andy, great post -- the Giants "back 7" is a problem for the Giants.  The Pats started the season in the No Huddle offense and they will end it in No Huddle. They started this trend this year and Brady is dangerous in it.  Short passes and draw plays are the Pats strength - it will continue. No team has an answer for the Pats Tight Ends.  I expect some designed plays for Branch and Ochocinco also -- they are lost in the Gronk, Hernandez, and Welker numbers.  The Pats game plan is to score plenty early and dictate opponents play calling.  With this 55 total .....Vegas is anticipating Brady and to score.  Clearly Belichek needs to address Bradshaw and Victor Cruz.  Ray Rice had a weak first half last week (better success in the 2nd half)....I suspect Bradshaw will meet the same...70 yards or so.  I concur that the Giants have more talent in all 53 players but, I am not going against the Patriots in this one.  I have a stong lean on the UNDER also.  Great to see your posts and insights - all year. - McGee



I agree with most of your thoughts here. The way to take away this D-line is to run the no huddle and I believe that what NE will do. Throw in some runs to keep them off balance and set up play action and it could be a long day for a secondary that I don't think is very good. Saw today where the Giants only got sacks on 2.8% of the plays they played against 2 TE sets and that's what NE does the majority of the time, could be a reason the rush wasn't very good in the Week 9 game.

GL.
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Posted: 2/2/2012 11:11:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kroch:

on it as well Andarmac.  And no one is talking about the Pats o-line which is dominating people. 

Did Suggs even have an impact last week?  Brady had an off game, but didn't seem it was from pressure.  He had time. 

Keep talking about how bad the Gmen can take care of the secondary, but not how the Gmen are a 1-trick pony and BB always takes that weapon away (Cruz).  BB is going to dare the Gmen to run the ball to win the game---which they can't do against the Pats d-line.

btw, glad I stayed awya from the Niners last week---just bet the under large instead. 





Just 1 sack and 4 QB hits allowed on 71 dropbacks in the playoffs against two teams that both finished in the Top 10 in sack percentage.


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Posted: 2/2/2012 11:15:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bigkaptain:

gl but opposite here. its the 3rd time we have seen a team get hot going into playoffs and run the table since 08. i believe the square thinking is that people r going to think that tom and bill and the pats cant be beaten by the same team twice in 1 year. or they cant lose to the giants again in the superbowl or its revenge. thats what im hearing here in vegas from alot of people and these people r usually wrong. going to be a great game but im going with the hotter defense the more complete team and the fact that eli is on a mission and he wants to prove he is on bradys level. wouldnt be surprised at all to see the pats win but im on the giants


I actually do agree with you there. However I think the matchups favor the Pats and the Pats also have the intangibles on their side as far as coaching and the situational aspect.

The fan in me is rooting for the Giants just because I believe that champions should be complete teams and not flashy teams that play with fire defensively like the Pats do.

Gl.
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Posted: 2/2/2012 11:21:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lancer89074:

Nice writeups andarmac99. I enjoyed reading them. I'm leaning now strongly in New England's direction. Though the Patrots were badly outplayed in Pittsburgh, they were still in it to the end. They kept fighting and scratching and who says that character can't be coached?


Another good point. The Pats are so fundamentally sound that they rarely if ever find themselves out of a game. They lost the Buffalo game on a late FG because of 4 turnovers (1 a fluke pick 6). They had 4 turnovers in the Giants loss and still had the lead with 10 seconds to go. Against Pittsburgh they were totally dominated but still found themselves with the ball late down only 6 points.

They are too well-coached, fundamentally sound, and disciplined to ever shoot themselves in the foot or make major mental errors to put themselves out of a game. Most other teams in those 3 losses would have been blown out with 4 turnovers etc, but NE had a chance to win them all.


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#230
Posted: 2/4/2012 5:06:21 AM
What hernandez and welker prop did you take?
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Posted: 2/4/2012 12:30:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cheeersM8:

What hernandez and welker prop did you take?


My total "side bet" is divided up into New England -3 +110 (50%), New England -2.5 -112 (25%) and Tom Brady MVP +130 (25%).


The juice has changed on some of these so I'll just post the actual props:

Wes Welker OVER 6.5 receptions
and OVER 78.5 receiving yards.

Aaron Hernandez OVER 5.5 receptions and OVER 68.5 receiving yards.

My thinking on both of these is that New England will be running the no huddle quite a bit and hitting the short passes and slants. Both these guys are very quick and shifty out of their breaks and I don't think the Giants have anyone who can cover either of them. Hernandez has been used a lot lately and while Welker has been somewhat quiet it is important to remember he has been primarily covered by Champ Bailey and LaDarius Webb in the two playoff games and those guys are studs.


Rob Gronkowski OVER 9.5 yards on his 1st reception.

I think the Pats will try to get Gronk involved very early down the field to prove that he can actually get down the field and be a factor. Kind of a statement bet here, you know the Pats will try to make a statement that Gronk will at least appear to be able to play well. I think they will do this to try and open up the field later on. The ankle will also be at it's best early in the game after he takes the shots before kickoff.


Mario Manningham OVER 3 receptions

Belichick will try to take Cruz or Nicks out of the game. I haven't figured out which one and I don't think anyone knows. But Manningham should see single coverage all game and should get his fair share of looks with the focus on Cruz and Nicks.


Eli Manning OVER 38.5 pass attempts

Since the start of October the Giants have played in 12 games that they did not win by 10 points or more and in 10 of them Eli has gone over this number in attempts. New England has only lost 16 games by more than 10 points in the Belichick and Brady era and none this year so it is unlikely they lose by double digits in this one.


NY Giants Team Total UNDER 27

I explained this one earlier.


New England -7.5 +205

I think NE wins by double digits.


National Anthem OVER 94 seconds

I know this is kind of a crazy bet but I was listening to the radio the other day and they were talking about Clarkson's new record out now and how she is doing a nationwide tour. With all this going on there is no better time to sell yourself in front of what will most likely be the biggest audience in TV history. I know all her other performances have been 93 or 94 seconds but I have a feeling he milks this one and gets people talking a little bit.


That's all for me. GL.
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Posted: 2/4/2012 12:40:42 PM
^^^^^^Should obviously say: she milks this one and gets people talking a little bit.


Did a little digging on the Giants pass rush and how much of an alleged advantage they have over the Pats no name rush. The Giants sack percentage this year is 7.51%. New England is 6.58%. Less than a 1% difference. Which means the Giants get 1 more sack on over 100 more dropbacks, hardly a huge difference.

But the Giants D-line has got healthy and better in the playoffs? Stats say otherwise. The Giants sack percentage in the playoffs is exactly the same as during the regular season. The % of time they hit the QB on a dropback is also exactly the same in the playoffs and regular season.

The Giants sack percentage in the playoffs is 7.5% and their hit percentage is 14%. In the playoffs New England's sack percentage is 11.4% and their hit percentage is 21.4%. Perception vs reality here? The Giants have all the big talkers and sexy players up front, is that making them look better than the Pats group of no-namers?
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#233
Posted: 2/4/2012 12:57:42 PM
How do you propose that Belichick will take both Cruz and Nicks out of the game?  I think Manningham could catch the ball three or more times but to say the Pats will be able to take the Giants top two Wr out of the game is suspect.
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#234
Posted: 2/4/2012 11:37:35 PM
As a Giants fan, I am also afraid of the hurry-up offense. I would be very surprised if the Pats didn't go like Oregon! These guys are not in shape and there will be very little pass rush if the Pats go hurry-up. Not  just no-huddle, but hurry-up. Shhh! Don't tell them!

I think both Os will score 30+. Giants 37-31.

GL
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Posted: 2/5/2012 12:20:11 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Kazual12:

How do you propose that Belichick will take both Cruz and Nicks out of the game?  I think Manningham could catch the ball three or more times but to say the Pats will be able to take the Giants top two Wr out of the game is suspect.


I never said that. I said he will try to take Cruz or Nicks out of the game or at least minimize one of them. Why? Because that is the Belichick way. He has always attacked the opposing teams best playmaker hard and let someone else beat them. Whichever one of these guys he has deemed the most important player he will attack aggressively, that is something he has always done. Just look at the Ravens game where Ray Rice was their most important weapon and he was a non factor. 67 yards on 21 carries and he caught 1 pass after catching 70+ in the regular season. I can't see Belichick going after Manningham but I'd bet my left nut he goes after either Cruz or Nicks, I just don't know which one. It may not be entirely successful but the Pats will most definitely try.

 
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#236
Posted: 2/5/2012 12:32:42 AM
Another game most of the so called smart guys on Pats, most of the not so smart on G-men.  Nots so smart win.
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#237
Posted: 2/5/2012 12:44:39 AM
Pats 
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#238
Posted: 2/5/2012 12:59:26 AM
i got 50 bucks on julian edelman for mvp. like u i think the pats win. he will probably see about 30 snaps on offense and 30 snaps on defense and return punts and the giants have been talking garbage about him the last couple week. Brady will probably be mvp but no one will have a chance to make a better impact than edelman. +10000. go pats.
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Posted: 2/5/2012 1:21:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by swolesbee:

i got 50 bucks on julian edelman for mvp. like u i think the pats win. he will probably see about 30 snaps on offense and 30 snaps on defense and return punts and the giants have been talking garbage about him the last couple week. Brady will probably be mvp but no one will have a chance to make a better impact than edelman. +10000. go pats.


I like where you're going there, I will throw a few bucks on that myself. It's not like the Pats haven't played inexperienced players in big games before. They had Troy Brown back there one year when they won the Super Bowl and in the Super Bowl against Philly they started two rookie corners.
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#240
Posted: 2/5/2012 8:49:58 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by andarmac99:

^^^^^^Should obviously say: she milks this one and gets people talking a little bit.


Did a little digging on the Giants pass rush and how much of an alleged advantage they have over the Pats no name rush. The Giants sack percentage this year is 7.51%. New England is 6.58%. Less than a 1% difference. Which means the Giants get 1 more sack on over 100 more dropbacks, hardly a huge difference.

But the Giants D-line has got healthy and better in the playoffs? Stats say otherwise. The Giants sack percentage in the playoffs is exactly the same as during the regular season. The % of time they hit the QB on a dropback is also exactly the same in the playoffs and regular season.

The Giants sack percentage in the playoffs is 7.5% and their hit percentage is 14%. In the playoffs New England's sack percentage is 11.4% and their hit percentage is 21.4%. Perception vs reality here? The Giants have all the big talkers and sexy players up front, is that making them look better than the Pats group of no-namers?

Just dont tell all the Giant backers.  

They also don't seem to realize that the patriots have a balanced offense. Have probably the best pass protecting line in the nfl. And are pretty good at running this thing called a no huddle which can be used to neutralize a pass rush and limit subs by the defense.  
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#241
Posted: 2/5/2012 9:18:52 AM

thanks for the insights re sack percentages.

just a question to consider:

since the giants played an extra playoff game (3 - includes wild card game), they obviously had more plays than the pats (at two playoff games).  is it not more likely that the giant percentage of sacks/hits would be less over a greater number of plays than the pats percentage over less number of plays?

this, i think, is akin to higher batting averages over 100 at bats, then batting averages falling when having a greater number of bats at 300 or more . . .

just a  thought.

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#242
Posted: 2/5/2012 10:09:28 AM

great stuff! I had this feeling for 2 weeks and you just validated it and justified it-I have done well all postseason playing against the consensus-and I got more intrigued with Belichick's attitude...the Giants definitely feel more pressure and that does matter in this game-we're all human. Pats D doesn't give up major points either the last 8 weeks-just yards-Red Zone is what counts.

I have a chance to win a Playoff Pool for making ahead of the curve bets like Denver vs. Pitt,Giants vs GB, SF vs NO and this game fits right in-way too many people on NYG-thanks for the help!

 

NE-2.5 all day

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#243
Posted: 2/5/2012 10:12:36 AM
One more thing-the BEST point, Giants backers is you beat this team at the very end, barely in a game where they had 4 Turnovers-NE had too many last week-you have to assume they will not turn it over today as they have emphasized and that should get them over the hump...
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#244
Posted: 2/5/2012 12:56:19 PM
ok then i read it wrong but how do you propose he takes them out of the game?  Does he double Cruz?  Does he cover Nicks?  I was wondering how you thought he might do it.  I know you aren't the Pats coach and.  Pick your poison right?  I wasn't disagreeing I just think Bill won't be able to close out either of these wideouts.  I think like I said before Manningham has a good shot at catching 3 or more passes but i could easily see guys like Welker and Cruz catching ten plus passes.  Good luck man.
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#245
Posted: 2/5/2012 4:02:19 PM

What up, Andy?

Last night I was in my local mall parking lot waiting for my stepdaughter and her friends(figured I chill in lot with radio bumping and do last minute research on my phone rather than drive home, hang out a half hour, and then drive back).

Anyway I'm cocking around in my car passing time, I found this thread, started from the beginning, and read the entire thing.  friggin awesome!  Fantastic info from day 1 of the playoffs!  Wish I could have contributed more, but work blocks Covers again, and I've been so busy lately after work and the weekends.  Next year I vow to bring it like past years.  Your threads are KEY to my weekly NFL capping and I want to go back to GIVING as much as I TAKE from them.

Anyway, I'm rolling with the G Men.  I know a lot of people are a bit worried at the line, and there's so much Giant love it is scary, but I thought the line was spot on.  You have to consider early prop bets, so -3 was spot on.  Personally, I think PK was the true line, or even Giants -1 or 2, but Pats -3 is where it should be. 

Hit the Giants for a unit at +3.5 when it opened.  Added another couple units at +3 throughout the last couple weeks.  Someone who is a master of totals(Sharp) leans under so I tailed him with a Giants +10 UNDER 63 teaser.  Also just threw in Giants -10.5 in the alternate line(around +550 or so, I believe). 

I'm not big on props, but did a few.  A few are mine, and a few I'm tailing Sharp as he was on the same page as me.

Rolle over 6 tackles.  Philips over 4.5 tackles.  NE has that short passing attack and I believe the safetys are both gonna heap up tackles. 

Over 3.5 FGs.  Hoping they can hit a few of those early in the game when both teams are a bit conserative and feeling each other out.

Under in receptions and yards for Gronk(5.5 and 77).  In all my years of watching sports, I've never seen anyone come back from that kind of injury so fast(with the exception of Big Ben but he is a different breed and was extremely hobbled).  Taking a shot he gives it a go,  but winds up ineffective. 

First TD scored went with Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and Travis Beckum.

Total KO returns UNDER 6.5.  Love this one(tailing Sharp here).  This is something I never would have thought of, but his writeup made perfect sense(dome, two strong legs, etc). 

If Gronk is a non factor like I think he is gonna be, I think the Giants focus on Hernandez leaving Welker to roam around underneath so OVER 7 receptions and OVER 80.5 yards.

Over 12 yards for Beckum.  He has become a target for Eli the last few games.  I think I quick hit over the middle wins this prop.

Good luck to all and I hope everyone finds a way to finish the season on a strong note!

 

 

 

 

 

 

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#246
Posted: 2/5/2012 4:05:16 PM

Excellent job capping Kelly Clarkson, by the way.

I threw 50 bucks on it to tail you.

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