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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Help Using Excel to find how many MLB series have 1 game won by the DOG
BuckeyeKaptn send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 3/27/2014 9:02:42 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by oilcountry99:


This is great info, only problem is that it doesn't import into excel.  At least I can't seem to get it to work.

Thanks again for posting the link!
yeah, I know.
What I am doing for 2013 is for each home series, going through and marking all the plays..A,B,C and whether they won or not..then putting the ML amount, plus any loss from A and/or B games.  I am at the start of August right now.  No filters, every 3 or 4 game series, 3g chase.  Currently standing at -65.72 units down. UGH!  It was down in May, rose up in June and then July blew the whole thing to the tune of -85 units (actually last series of June).  
When I'm done, I'll post to Google cloud to see if anyone has some filters that might work.  I'll put the spreadsheet up too, so anyone can download it and mess with it.
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#27
Posted: 3/27/2014 6:47:26 PM
Here's the results when betting the team that was the underdog in the first game of the series until they win.
Game 1
http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=series+game%3D1+and+D&submit=S+D+Q+L+%21

Game 2
http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=series+game%3D2+and+p%3ALD&submit=S+D+Q+L+%21

Game 3
http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=series+game%3D3+and+pp%3ALD+and+p%3AL&submit=S+D+Q+L+%21

Game 4
http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=series+game%3D4+and+ppp%3ALD+and+p%3AL+and+pp%3AL&submit=S+D+Q+L+%21
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#28
Posted: 3/27/2014 10:27:35 PM
Burchar...could you explain the results at least for Game 1?  I am a real newbie with sportsdatabase.  What am I looking for...etc?
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#29
Posted: 3/27/2014 10:35:48 PM
Okay...my results for 2013.
Game A won 37%
Game B won 43%
Game C won 45%....of the time.
The system as a chase was 81%...563-136.

Game A lost 92.32 units (wagered by itself)
Game B won 7.38 units (wagered by itself)
Game C won 9.11 units (wagered by itself)
(This means just playing the A bets you lost 92.32u,...playing only B bets if the A game lost and playing only the C bets if the A and B games lost.)
The system as a chase lost 41.12 units.

This is no filters, playing every series.
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#30
Posted: 3/27/2014 11:04:33 PM
Here's a link to my work.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1l6rKvyr-VciT6kcZMClorGQvZdLfQ462dQy5fnvUNLo/edit?usp=sharing
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#31
Posted: 3/28/2014 6:54:36 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by burchar:

Here's the results when betting the team that was the underdog in the first game of the series until they win.
Game 1
http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=series+game%3D1+and+D&submit=S+D+Q+L+%21

Game 2
http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=series+game%3D2+and+p%3ALD&submit=S+D+Q+L+%21

Game 3
http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=series+game%3D3+and+pp%3ALD+and+p%3AL&submit=S+D+Q+L+%21

Game 4
http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=series+game%3D4+and+ppp%3ALD+and+p%3AL+and+pp%3AL&submit=S+D+Q+L+%21
thanks for posting the sportsdatabase.com/mlb/ links, good stuff, appreciate your effort.time saving for many
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#32
Posted: 3/28/2014 8:59:46 AM
I'm looking to labby B and C games.  I'm gonna start this season doing it too, while I do my backtest on it.
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#33
Posted: 3/28/2014 9:30:38 AM
These were my numbers for 2013...notice the amount of DOG wins on the RRL 65%  average adds on these are probably around +200, not exactly sure.  I believe the RRL should be attached to the DOG ML plays in some way to increase profits, again not exactly sure the best way to do this.  I would want to capture profit on all DOG wins but cash extra when that RRL hits.

Total (2/3/4) Series 1580
Total Dog Wins         1284
% 1G WON BY DOG 81.3%
Total (2/3/4) Series 1580
Total Dog RRL Wins 1027
% 1G DOG RRL Wins  65%
Total (2/3/4) Series 1580
Total A Game Wins 700  44.3%
Total B Game Wins 389  24.6%
Total C Game Wins 178  11.3%
Total D Game Wins 17  1.1%

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#34
Posted: 3/28/2014 9:32:06 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by burchar:

Here's the results when betting the team that was the underdog in the first game of the series until they win.
Game 1
http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=series+game%3D1+and+D&submit=S+D+Q+L+%21

Game 2
http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=series+game%3D2+and+p%3ALD&submit=S+D+Q+L+%21

Game 3
http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=series+game%3D3+and+pp%3ALD+and+p%3AL&submit=S+D+Q+L+%21

Game 4
http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=series+game%3D4+and+ppp%3ALD+and+p%3AL+and+pp%3AL&submit=S+D+Q+L+%21

This is good info but not the nature of the thread.  We are looking to bet the DOG at all times in a series whether it be Team A or Team B, not chase the Dog from the opening game.
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#35
Posted: 3/28/2014 9:49:14 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Burchar...could you explain the results at least for Game 1?  I am a real newbie with sportsdatabase.  What am I looking for...etc?


Game 1
http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=series+game%3D1+and+D&submit=S+D+Q+L+%21

SU: 3268-4358 (-0.64, 42.9%) - wins 3268, losses 4358, winning percentage of 42.9%, the -0.64, I believe is the Z-score

avg line: 135.1 / -147.9 - average odds for the qualifying team are +135.1, average odds for opponent are -147.9, SDB defines an underdog as odds of -104 or better

on / against: -$5,642 / -$33,781 - profit or loss betting the qualifying team is a loss of 56.42 units, profit or loss betting on the opponent is a loss of 337.81 units

Hope that helps.
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#36
Posted: 3/28/2014 10:01:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by oilcountry99:


This is good info but not the nature of the thread.  We are looking to bet the DOG at all times in a series whether it be Team A or Team B, not chase the Dog from the opening game.


Is this more of what you're looking for:

Game 2
http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=series+game%3D2+and+D+and+%28p%3ALD+or+p%3AWF%29&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

Game 3
http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=series+game%3D3+and+D+and+%28p%3ALD+or+p%3AWF%29+and+%28pp%3ALD+or+pp%3AWF%29&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

Game 4
http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=series+game%3D4+and+D+and+%28p%3ALD+or+p%3AWF%29+and+%28pp%3ALD+or+pp%3AWF%29+and+%28ppp%3ALD+or+ppp%3AWF%29&submit=S+D+Q+L+!
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#37
Posted: 3/28/2014 1:30:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by oilcountry99:

These were my numbers for 2013...notice the amount of DOG wins on the RRL 65%  average adds on these are probably around +200, not exactly sure.  I believe the RRL should be attached to the DOG ML plays in some way to increase profits, again not exactly sure the best way to do this.  I would want to capture profit on all DOG wins but cash extra when that RRL hits.

Total (2/3/4) Series 1580
Total Dog Wins         1284
% 1G WON BY DOG 81.3%
Total (2/3/4) Series 1580
Total Dog RRL Wins 1027
% 1G DOG RRL Wins  65%
Total (2/3/4) Series 1580
Total A Game Wins 700  44.3%
Total B Game Wins 389  24.6%
Total C Game Wins 178  11.3%
Total D Game Wins 17  1.1%

these are some really good # & % appreciate your sharing technique; thanks

 

 

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#38
Posted: 3/28/2014 1:35:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by oilcountry99:


This is good info but not the nature of the thread.  We are looking to bet the DOG at all times in a series whether it be Team A or Team B, not chase the Dog from the opening game.
understandably so, however you could still utilize the stats to your advantage, simply eliminate the chase factor, and let the stats speak alone
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#39
Posted: 3/28/2014 2:38:35 PM
Staf,

Thanks for posting, this SQDL looks to be a powerful tool.  I need to play around with it on my own to get an understanding of what I'm looking at.

Your examples will be helpful in learning.  Do they offer RRL(reverse  run line) stats?

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#40
Posted: 3/28/2014 4:24:15 PM
great info guys!!!  just to be be clear, for example if we have the cubs vs braves in a 3 game series.  the cubs were dogs for games A and C, the braves game B. your bets would be:

A---cubs
B---braves
C---cubs

is this correct?
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#41
Posted: 3/28/2014 4:28:51 PM
anyone ever look into a series dog winning a game?  i was messing around with that last year for a bit.  couldn't really get a grasp on what to look at to determine whether or not they would get swept or not.  i had some success looking at the starting pitchers OPB.
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#42
Posted: 3/28/2014 4:32:49 PM
bbreit,
You are correct in post #40
Posted using a mobile device.
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#43
Posted: 3/28/2014 4:34:53 PM
Staf,
Are we able to run your queries from post #36 to check if the Dog won by 2+ runs?
Posted using a mobile device.
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#44
Posted: 3/28/2014 4:35:09 PM
thanks oilcountry.....and thanks for your effort.
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#45
Posted: 4/1/2014 1:14:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by oilcountry99:

Staf,
Are we able to run your queries from post #36 to check if the Dog won by 2+ runs?

I don't believe there's a way to do it directly, but there might be a way to do 2 queries and take the difference.
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#46
Posted: 4/1/2014 1:36:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by staf:


I don't believe there's a way to do it directly, but there might be a way to do 2 queries and take the difference.

By adding "and margin>1" to each of the queries I get the number of 2+ wins, but don't know the profits for RRL

Game 1
2350-5289 - 30.76%

Game 2
1200-2972 - 29.76%

Game 3
641-1591 - 28.71%

Game 4
82-192 - 29.92%

Overall RRL
4273-10044 - 29.84%
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#47
Posted: 4/1/2014 1:45:32 PM
Thanks staf, appreciate your input
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#48
Posted: 6/8/2014 9:40:23 PM
Oilcountry... how exactly would you play this? Thanks for the stats.
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#49
Posted: 6/9/2014 12:25:46 PM
Baath887

Good Question.  Sorry I don't have an answer for you.  I haven't persued this avenue further.

Best of luck
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#50
Posted: 6/10/2014 12:43:21 PM
Thanks. I actually just thought of something. We should look at games that were tied after 6, 7, 8, or 9 innings, and look at the % of teams that won those games (Road teams, favs, dogs, etc?)

I think there would be value here in live betting. When games are tied late in the game, you can live bet the dog (or sometimes road team) for as much as +175 to +300. I think this is great value. However I would not know how to compile the stats required to determine if we could produce a profitable system out of this... can anyone help?

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