MLB Underdog Systems - Anyone want to track this for the season?

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB Underdog Systems - Anyone want to track this for the season?
jeffjam PM jeffjam
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quote#851
Posted: 5/13/2015 5:24:58 PM
Degen, any timetable on the spreadsheet update? Thanks.
jenjay23 PM jenjay23
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quote#852
Posted: 5/13/2015 6:36:15 PM
Although i don't play this system, if you like Stoffo's you can try this one. Sagarin's are sometimes not 100% so I would check and if you see a wonky one it may have not imported properly from usatoday's site.
Hope it helps a few play and track this system.  If you do let me know if you profit!
GL

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9UBaNk9s7UjS2FlNUczN3pNNTA/view?usp=sharing

pairadux PM pairadux
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quote#853
Posted: 6/4/2015 6:35:52 PM
I'm trying a system in which I'm going with the Dog, but one of my parameters involves a pitcher whose ERA is regressing to the mean.

It centers around some of the parameters mention previously, but in addition, I look at the pitching match up.  The idea is that if a pitcher's ERA over the last few games is significantly higher or lower than his season ERA, he'll work his way back to it.

However, I don't know how to enter this into the killersports SDQL parameters to test my theory.

I've also been filtering pitchers to find out who matches up better with whip, k/9 and GO/FO ratio.  When I throw these together way to many of my dogs get eliminated from play.  Any thoughts on how to keep the theory but offset it?  Like with last 10 games trends as a counter?

Thoughts?
sports_Network PM sports_Network
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quote#854
Posted: 7/20/2015 7:05:11 AM

DG & Dan

been using the spreadsheet for the entire 2015 season with satisfactory results, btw it didn't hit the wall before the All-Star break as in previous years....later

Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#855
Posted: 7/20/2015 11:08:10 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sports_Network:

DG & Dan

been using the spreadsheet for the entire 2015 season with satisfactory results, btw it didn't hit the wall before the All-Star break as in previous years....later


Where is the updated sheet for 2015?
sports_Network PM sports_Network
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quote#856
Posted: 7/20/2015 11:23:26 AM
I duplicated the 2013 original version (updated) to use for the 2014 season, and again,updated it to use this year 2015 (personalized)
rivermonsterz PM rivermonsterz
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quote#857
Posted: 7/20/2015 7:13:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pairadux:

I'm trying a system in which I'm going with the Dog, but one of my parameters involves a pitcher whose ERA is regressing to the mean.It centers around some of the parameters mention previously, but in addition, I look at the pitching match up.  The idea is that if a pitcher's ERA over the last few games is significantly higher or lower than his season ERA, he'll work his way back to it.However, I don't know how to enter this into the killersports SDQL parameters to test my theory.I've also been filtering pitchers to find out who matches up better with whip, k/9 and GO/FO ratio.  When I throw these together way to many of my dogs get eliminated from play.  Any thoughts on how to keep the theory but offset it?  Like with last 10 games trends as a counter?Thoughts?


The problem I see here is you are using too many of the stats that make a team a favourite in the first place.

The point of this system is to find value dogs. a team playing a great pitcher that is on a good run etc etc is most likely going to be a favourite.

By filtering too heavily on underdog strategy like this eliminates too many plays and creates no value.

Posted using a mobile device.
Pendo PM Pendo
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quote#858
Posted: 9/19/2015 12:18:39 AM
MLB undedogs best time is now, in September.
sports_Network PM sports_Network
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quote#859
Posted: 9/20/2015 11:18:32 AM
MLB dogs bark the loudest in autumn...that's a fact, not an opinion, check Septembers boxscores for enlightment
sports_Network PM sports_Network
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quote#860
Posted: 5/19/2016 6:48:33 AM

 jenjay23...give it a review

many perimeters added on the way to conclusion...what's your assessment? the system has been consistent with getting out of the gate strong, picking up the RL on the way, and gaining momentum until approx 2 weeks before the All Star game break, then it regresses, and eventually hits the wall (for reasons unknown) however, I have found that the system resurfaces with vg results in September (#858/#859) also for reasons that at this time are 'unknown'

Danrules24, do you see reconstructed value? do you see re enforcement of the system for 2016? twin play? what's your feel? take care.....

sports_Network PM sports_Network
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quote#861
Posted: 5/19/2016 6:50:23 AM

 jenjay23...give it a review

many perimeters added on the way to conclusion...what's your assessment? the system has been consistent with getting out of the gate strong, picking up the RL on the way, and gaining momentum until approx 2 weeks before the All Star game break, then it regresses, and eventually hits the wall (for reasons unknown) however, I have found that the system resurfaces with vg results in September (#858/#859) also for reasons that at this time are 'unknown'

Danrules24, do you see reconstructed value? do you see re enforcement of the system for 2016? twin play? what's your feel? take care.....

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