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Author: [Streak Survivor] Topic: Serious Streak Survivor Strategies
CZECH_RAZOR
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#8401
Posted: 5/4/2012 12:40:27 AM
LA wins 4-2  Hit for $600 on my parlay whew hew up $550 for the day.

Nice
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#8402
Posted: 5/4/2012 12:44:18 AM
Hey edward you're throwing down some good info there.

I never really thought about it but you're right, there's probably a much higher concentration of public money vs sharp money in the post season, hence the confused line moves.  

Also like your reasoning on totals.  The total line moves have always seemed more solid, and honestly the reason I think I did better on sides in reg season was because I tended to only take dog line moves, when public was all over the favorite, and these tended to be sharp.  you really didn't see too many busters taking a dog in the regular season, at least until the end of the season, so there weren't many favorite sharp plays to begin with.

Post season has definitely been a lot more swingy.
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#8403
Posted: 5/4/2012 12:48:06 AM
The reason I wanted to share the system with everyone was not to look cool, it was to have good discussions like this with guys like you so i could learn more.  

I see a lot of potential with the system moving forward, and already can't wait for next season.  I don't do baseball and only bet hockey for action, really, but neither of those sports fit my system very well because they don't have spreads. 

I think things will be alright even in the playoffs though.  i went 2-2 today, but honestly the only pick that qualified for me tonight was that dallas under play.

Dallas total went form 196 down to 194, and when I checked the consensus everyone was riding the over.  That right there should tell us something, and then the total went DOWN another 1/2 pt to 193.5, instead of up late as might be expected as public bet the over.  This was definitely a sharp play.  
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#8404
Posted: 5/4/2012 12:50:56 AM
So true system plays are 8/6 for the week, with 4 in a row coming in.  My personal picks went 1-2 today, and for the week are in the toilet, don't even want to say the number out loud lol but anyone can go thru here and see them all.  
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#8405
Posted: 5/4/2012 12:54:31 AM
So true system plays are 8/6 for the week, with 4 in a row coming in.  My personal picks went 1-2 today, and for the week are in the toilet, don't even want to say the number out loud lol but anyone can go thru here and see them all.  

One last thing about the Dallas second half pick.  Earlier i commented that this was a system play, but i never really explained my second half system to you guys.  It's correlated to the other one.

In order for a play to be a system play second half, it has to be based on a play that was a sharp play pre-game.  Also, the game has to be tracking OTHER way first half, against the sharp play, providing an increased amount of value on the sharp play second half.

So for example, say Dallas really was the sharp play according to the system (-3), and they are down 9 points at the half.  This would make Dallas -4 second half the sharp play, as now you're getting the original sharp play at +5 instead of -3.

The problem with this pick tonight (or at least calling it sharp) was that Dallas -3 really wasn't a sharp play tonight, at least according to the system. 

1) the line move was not solid, it went back down 1/2 a point to disqualify it
2) the public was not all over okc, it was like 50/50
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#8406
Posted: 5/4/2012 12:58:27 AM
This is probably TMI lol but oh well we'll get it right.  I know I've been all over the place but for anyone that's read all the posts last few days you can see for yourself. 

We've established on a nightly basis what games qualified and which ones didn't, and why.  I've been trying to be honest with myself first and foremost, and you guys also, to get an accurate feel for what it's producing.

Furthermore, the system was behind at first, and was 4-6 the other day.  Then there was a 1-0 night, then 2-0 last night, then 1-0 tonight.  My personal picks have been crap lately (besides hockey) but system is on W4 tonight and 8/6 for the week
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#8407
Posted: 5/4/2012 1:01:00 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:

So true system plays are 8/6 for the week, with 4 in a row coming in.  My personal picks went 1-2 today, and for the week are in the toilet, don't even want to say the number out loud lol but anyone can go thru here and see them all.  

correct me if I'm wrong anyone, but i believe baseball to be less public than other sports. which means usually more sharps to make a line move. i don't think joe blow will walk in on a baseball game and throw 10 large down.

With that being said Czech, baseball DOES not need a spread to read a line move. with baseball you get juice(value).

if a team starts out favored at -185 and by game time it done dropped down to -150 then it means more money on the dog. That line pretty much represents baseballs version of spread movement. ya dig
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#8408
Posted: 5/4/2012 2:02:03 AM
Yeah i follow you man and I agree.  smoothd asked me about a baseball game a couple days ago and i commented on it.

I think line moves in baseball can definitely be sharp, especially on a dog, as these tend to be sharp plays.  

the only thing i don't like about baseball and hockey though is that if you take a dog that goes from +150 to +140, they still have to win.  Now i understand the relationship between how often they have to win, etc, and these moves and plays can provide great value…but is anyone taking these plays on Streak Survivor?

My point is that even if they are good value they are still less than 50/50 to hit.  This doesn't mean garbage from a profitability stand point, and i understand that.  I just like sports with spreads because i prefer to bet -110 lines for the most part.  I never buy points and i don't usually take money lines, except for when the line is close to a pk.  

When I gamble that's different.  I took a 2-teamer tonight with a puck line on it and actually hit, lol, but it was also the first parlay I've hit all week.  
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#8409
Posted: 5/4/2012 2:50:27 AM
Hey guys tomorrow is going to be an interesting day in the NBA, we had the blowout teams today but tomorrow we have a couple 1-1 matchups like Bos/Atl and Chi/Phi, and then the Lakers at Denver. 

This should be a fun night for the system, I just have to be patient and not start calling garbage sharp prematurely.  Let's see how things go tomorrow night cuz i think I'm gonna fire hard and try and run something up.  
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#8410
Posted: 5/4/2012 2:55:42 AM
You know I thought of something, 5Dimes does open parlays and I think these are a good idea, but i don't think open teasers exist anywhere.  If they did i would rape those using sharp plays.  

If anyone knows of a place that has open teasers let me know.
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#8411
Posted: 5/4/2012 2:57:55 AM
I said the other day that I liked Denver in game 3, and had them around this line myself before I saw it just now.  This is def premature but i personally like denver already, the public is all over Lakers and line has already moved 1/2 a point on Denver.  Denver is winning tomorrow night.
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#8412
Posted: 5/4/2012 3:01:00 AM
Also guys i forgot from the other night but the favorite line moves when public was on dog are like 3-1 or 4-0 this week since i've been posting, and this is what Denver is going to be tomorrow.  I'm gonna be betting them whether they're sharp or not and we can determine that tomorrow, but think before you fire away on the Lakers.
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#8413
Posted: 5/4/2012 8:06:39 AM
Wish I had held off on that last pick I made knocking me out, I was for sure gonna take the Heat last night at -4.5pts, but I got greedy and figured, well if I can get a win tonight with the Giants & then hit with the Heat the next day I'll only be 2 away from the 1K, well that plan blew up in my face, I knew the Heat would cover last night.
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#8414
Posted: 5/4/2012 2:20:12 PM
Wow what a week it's been so far. We lost Junior Seau, the whole Sarah Phillips mess and now Mo goes down most likely for the year and maybe his career. This is very sad to Yankee fans and baseball fans in general. Will we ever see another closer this good in our lifetimes? I seriously doubt it. The greatest closer that ever played the game bar none and I mean none. I'm proud to say that I have seen Mo pitch on many occasions in person. There is no question that he played a huge part in the 5 rings we have won since 1995 when that class of Yankees came up, Jeter, Posada, Williams, Rivera and Pettite. What a great group of athletes and men. Mo is a man of faith and I pray that he finds comfort in his friends, family and the Lord at this low point of his career. 
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#8415
Posted: 5/4/2012 2:23:56 PM
News on another front. Just heard that Adam from the Beastie Boys has passed away. Wow what a week this has been. May is not normally an intense month but this is one month of May that won't be soon forgotten and it's only May 4th. What's next. You know they say they go in 3's and I find that to be true. I guess we will have to wait for the other shoe to drop now. Adam Yauch (Beastie Boys) RIP my man. God be with you. 
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#8416
Posted: 5/4/2012 2:38:37 PM
On a lighter note I have received a couple of PM's about my Avatar. All I can say is  you guys know how we do it! (.)(.)
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#8417
Posted: 5/4/2012 2:53:19 PM
I've been looking at the lines and consensus for the day. B's are coming in on Atl and Lakers, and have pushed both lines down 1/2 a point. Doesn't tell us anything. 

Look at the Bulls game though, Public is pretty divided but more are on Phi (55%) and the over (53%).  However, Line has moved to Bulls +1 -105 and the total has dropped From 179.5 to 178.

So the indicators are pointing towards the under, and also kinda on the Bulls. The line move on the Bulls is nothing special, however it has moved to that key number of 1. 

I've mentioned in recent posts why I like to go against -1 teams, Vegas is gonna catch a lot of buster money on phi tonight and I personally like the Bulls ml. 

No system plays yet but gonna keep track of this line today. 
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#8418
Posted: 5/4/2012 3:51:43 PM
Hey guys I pay pretty good attention to NBA line moves every day and sometimes there are good ones and sometimes I reach a little.  

That OKC under last night was an example of a good one.  Went down 2.5 pts in spite of public being on over.  The move was progressive and never went back up.  If we could contain ourselves to these only we would be over 75%
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#8419
Posted: 5/4/2012 6:04:26 PM
Alright it's a little early but I'm going out tonight so already bet and here's my plays:

1) Boston -7.5 
2) Chi +1 (I took them ml though EV)
3) Chi under 178
4) Boston under 173.5

Only one that qualifies as a system play so far is the Chicago under.  If this line goes up before game time then it doesn't qualify but I'm assuming it won't and so that one will go on the 8/6 record later.  
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#8420
Posted: 5/4/2012 6:07:30 PM
I should note though that they are all fade-B picks and there have been indicators on each one.  I like them all but only Chicago under qualifies so far, strictly under the system rules.  This is the only one with good line movement, Chicago is too close to a pk to qualify and Boston and the under are just personal fade-B picks, without line movement to qualify.
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#8421
Posted: 5/4/2012 6:55:49 PM
SHARP PLAY BULLS UNDER

It just dropped to 177.5 and is the official sharp play of the night
Posted using a mobile device.
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#8422
Posted: 5/4/2012 7:05:15 PM
1. Arizona-1.5  +155
Arizona - (L) W MILEY at
New York Mets - (R) D GEE
2. Tampa Bay-1.5  +110
Oakland - (R) T ROSS at
Tampa Bay - (L) D PRICE
3. Toronto +115
Toronto - (R) H ALVAREZ at
Los Angeles Angels - (R) E SANTANA
ACTION
4. (5-Inning) Under3.5  EVEN
Chicago White Sox (5-Inning) - (R) J PEAVY at
Detroit (5-Inning) - (L) D SMYLY
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#8423
Posted: 5/4/2012 7:05:37 PM
4-Team Parlays1@ $220.00
Potential Win:$4,845.82
Total Bet:$220.00
Total Potential Win:$4,845.82
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#8424
Posted: 5/4/2012 7:34:08 PM

MLB Texas -140

          D-backs -115

Celtics U174.5

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#8425
Posted: 5/4/2012 7:37:58 PM
Dammit,Angels under last nite money.
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