| Author: |
[NBA Betting] Topic: Let's talk NBA playoffs and potential series lines/wagers |
|
ShadowWarrior |
RSI   View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Captain
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 6344
Location: Hawaii |
#26 Posted: 4/24/2012 1:51:46 PM
|
|
quote |
|
kaponofor3 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Legend
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 33910
Location: California |
#27 Posted: 4/24/2012 1:59:29 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by thorpe: Kenyon Martin has 90 playoff games under his belt and Mo Williams and Reggie Evans have around 30 games each.
Tony Allen is the only guy on Memphis with any real playoff experience before last year. happy as hurt for the playoffs, but most of the team got in 13 games.
So I'd probably give the edge in playoff experience to the Clips.
I stand corrected on K-Mart and Mo Williams. Reggie Evans, man who did he get playoff experience with? I must be blanking on his.
|
|
quote |
|
P4P |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Captain
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 8811
Location: British
Columbia |
#28 Posted: 4/24/2012 2:33:57 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by WinsNow999: Chicago (-850) / Philly (+780) Miami (-650) / New York (+580)Indiana (-340) / Orlando (+275)Boston (-300) / Atlanta (+240)
EAST CONFERENCE
My picks to 2ND ROUND are:
CHICAGO
MIAMI
ORLANDO
ATLANTA
San Antonio (-700) / Utah OR Phoenix (+620) Oklahoma City (-550) / Dallas (+425)Los Angeles Lakers (-650) / Denver (+500)Los Angeles Clippers (-210) / Memphis (+180)
WEST CONFERENCE !
My Picks teams will go on to 2ND ROUND=
UTAH or Phoenix
OK. City
LA LAKERS
MEMPHIS
Don't have any issue with your 2 upset predictions in the East, but I have a very hard time seeing Utah/Phoenix knock off the Spurs. This San Antonio team not only looks great lately, but have been building towards these playoffs all season. It's going to take a much more elite team than what the Jazz or Suns are putting on the floor to knock them off (if anyone does at all...I like them to win it all personally). |
|
quote |
|
Mad_Skillz123 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports | |
All-Star
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 12849
Location: |
#29 Posted: 4/24/2012 2:40:32 PM
|
|
quote |
|
thorpe |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Captain
Joined: Sep 2002
Posts: 7163
Location: |
#30 Posted: 4/24/2012 3:40:21 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by kaponofor3:
I stand corrected on K-Mart and Mo Williams. Reggie Evans, man who did he get playoff experience with? I must be blanking on his.
11 games as a starter with Seattle in 05. First round exits with Denver and Philly (twice) off the bench 06 thru 09. |
|
quote |
|
|
|
kaponofor3 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Legend
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 33910
Location: California |
#31 Posted: 4/26/2012 11:28:06 AM
|
|
quote |
|
nbafan88 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker | |
Hall of Fame
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 26298
Location: New Jersey |
#32 Posted: 4/26/2012 12:00:42 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by thorpe: Kenyon Martin has 90 playoff games under his belt and Mo Williams and Reggie Evans have around 30 games each.
Tony Allen is the only guy on Memphis with any real playoff experience before last year. happy as hurt for the playoffs, but most of the team got in 13 games.
So I'd probably give the edge in playoff experience to the Clips.
Memphis is a better overall team than the clippers imo
Better execution, better teamwork, better coaching,, better home court
|
|
quote |
|
nbafan88 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker | |
Hall of Fame
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 26298
Location: New Jersey |
#33 Posted: 4/26/2012 12:01:39 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by DickyR: Will tell you this if Miami plays NY the line won't be -650 it will closer to -900. Miami won the season series 3-0.
|
|
quote |
|
Mike C. |
RSI  |
All-Star
Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 13025
Location: Virginia |
#34 Posted: 4/26/2012 12:08:58 PM
Chicago -2000 vs Philly
Miami -1200 vs NY
Indy -700 vs Orlando
Boston -140 vs Atlanta
SA -4000 vs Utah
OKC -600 vs Dallas
Lakers -400 vs Denver
Memphis -120 vs Clippers
|
|
quote |
|
Riceboi |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes | |
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 4460
Location: |
#35 Posted: 4/26/2012 12:25:07 PM
|
|
quote |
|
kaponofor3 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Legend
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 33910
Location: California |
#36 Posted: 4/26/2012 12:29:13 PM
What is Utah's clear strength? It's gotta be the four big bodies of Jefferson, Milsap, Favors, and Kanter. I understand that Manu was injured in last year's series, but this type of scenario has been biting at me for the last couple of days. Can San Antonio match the inside presence of Utah?
|
|
quote |
|
nbafan88 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker | |
Hall of Fame
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 26298
Location: New Jersey |
#37 Posted: 4/26/2012 12:57:05 PM
the execution/coach discrepancy is beyond ridiculous
|
|
quote |
|
RodWoman |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BetJamaica.com | |
Rookie
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 509
Location: Illinois |
#38 Posted: 4/26/2012 12:57:30 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by kaponofor3:
Assuming that the standings stay as they are, we are looking at the following first round match-ups:
Chicago v. Philly
Miami v. New York
Indiana v. Orlando
Boston v. Atlanta
San Antonio v. Utah OR Phoenix
Oklahoma City v. Dallas
Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver
Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis
Let's talk hypothetical series lines -- here's what I would put them at:
Chicago (-850) / Philly (+780)
Miami (-650) / New York (+580)
Indiana (-340) / Orlando (+275)
Boston (-300) / Atlanta (+240)
San Antonio (-700) / Utah OR Phoenix (+620)
Oklahoma City (-550) / Dallas (+425)
Los Angeles Lakers (-650) / Denver (+500)
Los Angeles Clippers (-210) / Memphis (+180)
How far off are my prices? Given the prices I am guessing above, who do you like? I think I would try to put a ton of money on Memphis if they are plus juice or even something like -150 or better. Do I have the favorites too high?
Miami and bulls will be 20-1 |
|
quote |
|
RodWoman |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BetJamaica.com | |
Rookie
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 509
Location: Illinois |
#39 Posted: 4/26/2012 1:03:13 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by kaponofor3:
Assuming that the standings stay as they are, we are looking at the following first round match-ups:
Chicago v. Philly
Miami v. New York
Indiana v. Orlando
Boston v. Atlanta
San Antonio v. Utah OR Phoenix
Oklahoma City v. Dallas
Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver
Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis
Let's talk hypothetical series lines -- here's what I would put them at:
Chicago (-850) / Philly (+780)
Miami (-650) / New York (+580)
Indiana (-340) / Orlando (+275)
Boston (-300) / Atlanta (+240)
San Antonio (-700) / Utah OR Phoenix (+620)
Oklahoma City (-550) / Dallas (+425)
Los Angeles Lakers (-650) / Denver (+500)
Los Angeles Clippers (-210) / Memphis (+180)
How far off are my prices? Given the prices I am guessing above, who do you like? I think I would try to put a ton of money on Memphis if they are plus juice or even something like -150 or better. Do I have the favorites too high?
might as well be 50-1. What's the diff. Philly and Knicks have no chance. |
|
quote |
|
P4P |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Captain
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 8811
Location: British
Columbia |
#40 Posted: 4/26/2012 1:17:44 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by kaponofor3:
OK this is probably heresy here, but am I the only one who could see Utah giving San Antonio some problems? I mean let's think back to last year with Memphis being a matchup nightmare for SAS. Why was that? Cause Memphis had BEASTS underneath and owned the paint.
What is Utah's clear strength? It's gotta be the four big bodies of Jefferson, Milsap, Favors, and Kanter. I understand that Manu was injured in last year's series, but this type of scenario has been biting at me for the last couple of days. Can San Antonio match the inside presence of Utah?
Just don't see it. Utah's got 4 guys under 21 years old or something like that. Youngest team in the playoffs by a mile. The old men will teach them a few things 
Sure, Jefferson and Milsap will have big games...Favors and Kanter are horrible.
Certainly no value betting on the Spurs to win the series at whatever steep price they'll be, but I think you're just flushing money down the toilet if you take Utah. |
|
quote |
|
kaponofor3 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Legend
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 33910
Location: California |
#41 Posted: 4/26/2012 1:19:53 PM
I dunno, just thinking out loud here.
|
|
quote |
|
P4P |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Captain
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 8811
Location: British
Columbia |
#42 Posted: 4/26/2012 1:28:53 PM May as well wait until they're down 0-2 then for the maximum odds.
Maybe the crowd (and some home-cooked officiating) let's them win game 3. |
|
quote |
|
P4P |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Captain
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 8811
Location: British
Columbia |
#43 Posted: 4/26/2012 1:30:26 PM |
|
quote |
|
thorpe |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Captain
Joined: Sep 2002
Posts: 7163
Location: |
#44 Posted: 4/27/2012 2:49:55 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by thorpe:
Chicago (-850) / Philly (+780) Miami (-650) / New York (+580)Indiana (-340) / Orlando (+275)Boston (-300) / Atlanta (+240)
I'd make Chicago more like -1000 to -1200. Miami is an interesting one, a lot of NYers are going to bet their team, but the books would be delighted if Miami lost with all the futures money on the. I'd make Miami around -480 i think. Indiana is a hot team and no one is looking to bet Orlando. Indy -600 IMO. I wouldn't make Boston as big a favorite - Boston -240
San Antonio (-700) / Utah OR Phoenix (+620) Oklahoma City (-550) / Dallas (+425)Los Angeles Lakers (-650) / Denver (+500)Los Angeles Clippers (-210) / Memphis (+180)
San Antonio has to be around -1100 with all their depth, home court and losing LY as a 1 seed. OKC I'd put at -420. Dallas has a chance if Marion can slow down KD. Lakers have a lot of backers, Your line could be accurate, but I'd take Denver if I could get +500. Clippers/Memphis IMO will be more like Clips -140. That should be a great series.
5dimes lines are out
Chi -1350, even higher than I thought. Miami -900, you were closer, but higher than we thought Pacers -900, even higher than we thought Celtics -200, as I thought, not quite as big a favorite
OKC -500, in between where we thought Spurs -2150 - much bigger favorite than we thought Lakers -240 - much smaller favorite than we thought Grizz -210 - we both assumed Clips would be favorite |
|
quote |
|
DickyR |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2011
Posts: 2748
Location: |
#45 Posted: 4/27/2012 3:19:05 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by DickyR: Will tell you this if Miami plays NY the line won't be -650 it will closer to -900. Miami won the season series 3-0.
I know what i am talking about -900 at 5dimes as i predicted. Nbafan88  |
|
quote |