Let's talk NBA playoffs and potential series lines/wagers

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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Let's talk NBA playoffs and potential series lines/wagers
ShadowWarrior PM ShadowWarrior
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Posted: 4/24/2012 1:51:46 PM
Grizz has been tested last year in play-offs so I can see why the love there.  Miami I think should roll so the price I think will be high.  The other series seem right on the numbers in price and games.  Is hedging possible?  Dallas was the stunner last year, see anything like that?  I don't see upsets in the first round,  Orlando is weak, the 4s vs 5s should be the closest for upsets, the other match-ups I don't see too much chances for upsets.  SA, LAL, OKC, should all advance. Lakers will be ready after their disgraceful exit last year.  SA won't be surprised again!  OKC wants revenge!  Boston vs Atl. will be a tussle.
kaponofor3 PM kaponofor3
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Posted: 4/24/2012 1:59:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thorpe:

Kenyon Martin has 90 playoff games under his belt and Mo Williams and Reggie Evans have  around 30 games each.

Tony Allen is the only guy on Memphis with any real playoff experience before last year.  happy as hurt for the playoffs, but most of the team got in 13 games.

So I'd probably give the edge in playoff experience to the Clips.


I stand corrected on K-Mart and Mo Williams. Reggie Evans, man who did he get playoff experience with? I must be blanking on his.
P4P PM P4P
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Posted: 4/24/2012 2:33:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WinsNow999:

Chicago (-850) / Philly (+780)  
Miami (-650) / New York (+580)
Indiana (-340) / Orlando (+275)
Boston (-300) / Atlanta (+240)
EAST CONFERENCE

My picks to 2ND ROUND are:

CHICAGO
MIAMI
ORLANDO
ATLANTA
San Antonio (-700) / Utah OR Phoenix (+620) 
Oklahoma City (-550) / Dallas (+425)
Los Angeles Lakers (-650) / Denver (+500)
Los Angeles Clippers (-210) / Memphis (+180)

WEST CONFERENCE !

My Picks teams will go on to 2ND ROUND=

UTAH or Phoenix
OK. City
LA LAKERS
MEMPHIS



Don't have any issue with your 2 upset predictions in the East, but I have a very hard time seeing Utah/Phoenix knock off the Spurs. This San Antonio team not only looks great lately, but have been building towards these playoffs all season. It's going to take a much more elite team than what the Jazz or Suns are putting on the floor to knock them off (if anyone does at all...I like them to win it all personally).

Mad_Skillz123 PM Mad_Skillz123
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Posted: 4/24/2012 2:40:32 PM
Memphis can play with LAC. The line should be around -130 LAC just because of the HC advantage, but imo Memphis rolls.



thorpe PM thorpe
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Posted: 4/24/2012 3:40:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kaponofor3:



I stand corrected on K-Mart and Mo Williams. Reggie Evans, man who did he get playoff experience with? I must be blanking on his.

11 games as a starter with Seattle in 05.  First round exits with Denver and  Philly (twice) off the bench 06 thru 09.  
kaponofor3 PM kaponofor3
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Posted: 4/26/2012 11:28:06 AM
Anyone see any lines out yet for the series wagers?
nbafan88 PM nbafan88
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Posted: 4/26/2012 12:00:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thorpe:

Kenyon Martin has 90 playoff games under his belt and Mo Williams and Reggie Evans have  around 30 games each.

Tony Allen is the only guy on Memphis with any real playoff experience before last year.  happy as hurt for the playoffs, but most of the team got in 13 games.

So I'd probably give the edge in playoff experience to the Clips.


Memphis is a better overall team than the clippers imo

Better execution, better teamwork, better coaching,, better home court
nbafan88 PM nbafan88
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Posted: 4/26/2012 12:01:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DickyR:

Will tell you this if Miami plays NY the line won't be -650 it will closer to -900.
Miami won the season series 3-0. 



Mike C. PM Mike C.
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Posted: 4/26/2012 12:08:58 PM
My guesses:
Chicago -2000 vs Philly
Miami -1200 vs NY
Indy -700 vs Orlando
Boston -140 vs Atlanta

SA -4000 vs Utah
OKC -600 vs Dallas
Lakers -400 vs Denver
Memphis -120 vs Clippers


Riceboi PM Riceboi
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Posted: 4/26/2012 12:25:07 PM
I think Spurs should be like -1000+ no matter who they play, just a beastly team that is all in. Could be Duncan's last year, they will win for him.
kaponofor3 PM kaponofor3
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Posted: 4/26/2012 12:29:13 PM
OK this is probably heresy here, but am I the only one who could see Utah giving San Antonio some problems? I mean let's think back to last year with Memphis being a matchup nightmare for SAS. Why was that? Cause Memphis had BEASTS underneath and owned the paint.

What is Utah's clear strength? It's gotta be the four big bodies of Jefferson, Milsap, Favors, and Kanter. I understand that Manu was injured in last year's series, but this type of scenario has been biting at me for the last couple of days. Can San Antonio match the inside presence of Utah?
nbafan88 PM nbafan88
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Posted: 4/26/2012 12:57:05 PM
utah will be lucky to win one game vs san antonio

the execution/coach discrepancy is beyond ridiculous
RodWoman PM RodWoman
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Posted: 4/26/2012 12:57:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

Assuming that the standings stay as they are, we are looking at the following first round match-ups:

Chicago v. Philly
Miami v. New York
Indiana v. Orlando
Boston v. Atlanta

San Antonio v. Utah OR Phoenix
Oklahoma City v. Dallas
Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver
Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis


Let's talk hypothetical series lines -- here's what I would put them at:

Chicago (-850) / Philly (+780)
Miami (-650) / New York (+580)
Indiana (-340) / Orlando (+275)
Boston (-300) / Atlanta (+240)

San Antonio (-700) / Utah OR Phoenix (+620)
Oklahoma City (-550) / Dallas (+425)
Los Angeles Lakers (-650) / Denver (+500)
Los Angeles Clippers (-210) / Memphis (+180)

How far off are my prices? Given the prices I am guessing above, who do you like? I think I would try to put a ton of money on Memphis if they are plus juice or even something like -150 or better. Do I have the favorites too high?
  Miami and bulls will be 20-1
RodWoman PM RodWoman
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Posted: 4/26/2012 1:03:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

Assuming that the standings stay as they are, we are looking at the following first round match-ups:

Chicago v. Philly
Miami v. New York
Indiana v. Orlando
Boston v. Atlanta

San Antonio v. Utah OR Phoenix
Oklahoma City v. Dallas
Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver
Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis


Let's talk hypothetical series lines -- here's what I would put them at:

Chicago (-850) / Philly (+780)
Miami (-650) / New York (+580)
Indiana (-340) / Orlando (+275)
Boston (-300) / Atlanta (+240)

San Antonio (-700) / Utah OR Phoenix (+620)
Oklahoma City (-550) / Dallas (+425)
Los Angeles Lakers (-650) / Denver (+500)
Los Angeles Clippers (-210) / Memphis (+180)

How far off are my prices? Given the prices I am guessing above, who do you like? I think I would try to put a ton of money on Memphis if they are plus juice or even something like -150 or better. Do I have the favorites too high?
  might as well be 50-1. What's the diff. Philly and Knicks have no chance.
P4P PM P4P
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Posted: 4/26/2012 1:17:44 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

OK this is probably heresy here, but am I the only one who could see Utah giving San Antonio some problems? I mean let's think back to last year with Memphis being a matchup nightmare for SAS. Why was that? Cause Memphis had BEASTS underneath and owned the paint.

What is Utah's clear strength? It's gotta be the four big bodies of Jefferson, Milsap, Favors, and Kanter. I understand that Manu was injured in last year's series, but this type of scenario has been biting at me for the last couple of days. Can San Antonio match the inside presence of Utah?

Just don't see it. Utah's got 4 guys under 21 years old or something like that. Youngest team in the playoffs by a mile. The old men will teach them a few things

Sure, Jefferson and Milsap will have big games...Favors and Kanter are horrible.

Certainly no value betting on the Spurs to win the series at whatever steep price they'll be, but I think you're just flushing money down the toilet if you take Utah.

kaponofor3 PM kaponofor3
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Posted: 4/26/2012 1:19:53 PM
I'm not suggesting taking Utah in legitimate hopes they do another 1/8 upset, just wondering what the price would be that would make it worth taking Utah in hopes that they win one of the first two games and possibly hedging out at a later date.

I dunno, just thinking out loud here.
P4P PM P4P
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Posted: 4/26/2012 1:28:53 PM

May as well wait until they're down 0-2 then for the maximum odds.

Maybe the crowd (and some home-cooked officiating) let's them win game 3.

P4P PM P4P
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Posted: 4/26/2012 1:30:26 PM
(If you can't tell I'm pretty high on the Spurs...so possibly a little biased.)
thorpe PM thorpe
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Posted: 4/27/2012 2:49:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thorpe:

 

Chicago (-850) / Philly (+780)  
Miami (-650) / New York (+580)
Indiana (-340) / Orlando (+275)
Boston (-300) / Atlanta (+240)


I'd make Chicago more like -1000 to -1200.  Miami is an interesting one, a lot of NYers are going to bet their team, but the books would be delighted if Miami lost with all the futures money on the.  I'd make Miami around -480 i think.  Indiana is a hot team and no one is looking to bet Orlando.  Indy -600 IMO.  I wouldn't make Boston as big a favorite - Boston -240


San Antonio (-700) / Utah OR Phoenix (+620) 
Oklahoma City (-550) / Dallas (+425)
Los Angeles Lakers (-650) / Denver (+500)
Los Angeles Clippers (-210) / Memphis (+180)

San Antonio has to be around -1100 with all their depth, home court and losing LY as a 1 seed.  OKC I'd put at -420.  Dallas has a chance if Marion can slow down KD.  Lakers have a lot of backers,  Your line could be accurate, but I'd take Denver if I could get +500.  Clippers/Memphis IMO will be more like Clips -140.  That should be a great series.


5dimes lines are out

Chi -1350, even higher than I thought.
Miami -900, you were closer, but higher than we thought
Pacers -900, even higher than we thought
Celtics -200, as I thought, not quite as big a favorite

OKC -500, in between where we thought
Spurs -2150 - much bigger favorite than we thought
Lakers -240 - much smaller favorite than we thought
Grizz -210 - we both assumed Clips would be favorite
DickyR PM DickyR
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Posted: 4/27/2012 3:19:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DickyR:

Will tell you this if Miami plays NY the line won't be -650 it will closer to -900.
Miami won the season series 3-0. 

I know what i am talking about -900 at 5dimes as i predicted.
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