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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB 2010 Labouchere Totals Chase
neilsy25 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
neilsy25
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Posted: 4/23/2010 11:32:24 AM

After another sh*t night, I have have been thinking a lot about ways to modify this ..It definetely has potential .. I just think with so many lines running for so many teams. over such  a long season .. and games almost every night.. the units required will become to much... . One idea that i am kicking around which i think would require less units is setting up a line for each team with 4 units  i.e

1 1 1 1

and once they clear it they are done for the season ..all 30 teams clearing = 120 units ..so far this year about half the teams would be done already...  I am debating restarting my lines and doing it this way.. I don't want to give up on this ..however I already see the lines escalating out of control .. so i need to tweak this a bit ..after all ..winning 100 units in a system that you need only 50 units to run ..is better than winning 1000 units in a system that requires 1000 units to run !

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SUPEREAGLE43
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SUPEREAGLE43
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Posted: 4/23/2010 11:43:22 AM
What if you did the lines by division?  Would that make a difference?  Ex. East, Central, and West.  You would need much less bankroll.
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bombCanada send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 4/23/2010 1:13:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SUPEREAGLE43:

The odds on totals are never even close to even unless Im missing something.

Right now, for ex, LOS / WAS is over -103 under +100.  Close enough to even for me.. i've put my over in for -101 and will probably get it within the hour.
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Posted: 4/23/2010 1:23:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by neilsy25:

After another sh*t night, I have have been thinking a lot about ways to modify this ..It definetely has potential .. I just think with so many lines running for so many teams. over such  a long season .. and games almost every night.. the units required will become to much... . One idea that i am kicking around which i think would require less units is setting up a line for each team with 4 units  i.e

1 1 1 1

and once they clear it they are done for the season ..all 30 teams clearing = 120 units ..so far this year about half the teams would be done already...  I am debating restarting my lines and doing it this way.. I don't want to give up on this ..however I already see the lines escalating out of control .. so i need to tweak this a bit ..after all ..winning 100 units in a system that you need only 50 units to run ..is better than winning 1000 units in a system that requires 1000 units to run !


I can see it either way.  Letting teams clear themselves out for the season means you stop playing the teams which trend the best.  OTOH it does accomplish your desire to reduce units to run the system.  

What if you developed some way to measure the trendiness of each team and used that to create plays on trendy teams more often and trendless teams less often?  Let me think about that...
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bombCanada send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 4/23/2010 1:24:50 PM
Only 5 plays tonight... lots of games are no bet because one team is trending over, and one is under, and most of my lines are at 1-1 right now.
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SUPEREAGLE43
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SUPEREAGLE43
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Posted: 4/23/2010 1:36:40 PM
Bomb, I never said there were NOT ANY games close to even odds.  But you want to throw 1 out there like that?  For every 1 that is close, the are 3 more that are not close.  So that means that you would need to account for juice on MOST plays.  Besides, even if you catch -103 odds and lose, why would you want to leave ANY juice on the table.  Doesnt make much sense to me.
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neilsy25 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
neilsy25
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Posted: 4/23/2010 1:47:43 PM

Well after last nights blood bath ,.I think i am down maybe 12-13 units..but with that awesome Senators win in triple OT ..i didn't mind !!. i am cutting my losses .and restarting 4 units/team..looking to make 120 units total ..with each unit being $10 ..so my line for each team is gonna start  at  

10 10 10 10  ..this don't work there always college football !...lol .

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wayne11 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 4/26/2010 11:29:23 AM
I was intrigued by the premis of this theory at the beginning of the season so I too tested all teams for 2007 and came up with about 180 net units.  I did add a couple of stop gaps such as max 25 unit loss, done with that team and/or if it hit 8 on the labby bet, done, getting too expensive.  In some cases if I would have hung in there it would have recovered for a profit, but on another, if I played it out it was going to be a 260 unit loss, that is how bad a team can take you.

While going through the data I was noticing another  trend, what if I play the opposite of this system, ie after two overs play for an under, or if two unders play for the  over.  Again, I did this for every team and put some stop gaps in very similar to the above.  And wouldn't you know 186 net units.

Well now what, which system to  play?  Why not both, they are independent of each other anyway, and one sort  provides insurance for the other.  If both were played would be up 360 units, minus juice of about 15%, if I remember correctly.



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Posted: 4/26/2010 11:42:06 AM
So, I started to play this system on April 14th.  I had to painfully watch the Dodger and KC over runs from afar since those runs started after I started betting.  Since the 14th, the Opposite System breakeven, including juice.  The original system (following the trend) proposed here started well, but has faded lately.

With playing both systems it can get pricey pretty quick over 80 units already and it is early.  I like the insurance part of it, but I hate giving all that juice away, when at  times I will be betting with a guaranteed loss of juice just to make sure I do not miss the run. 

I know you only did 2009 Neilsy which is why I took on 2007 for more data.  What was your net for 2009 just out of curiosity?  It took so long to 2007 I really don't have the time to do 2009.

Thanks for the concept in the first place.
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neilsy25 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 4/26/2010 12:30:22 PM

Hey Wayne...it depends on what you call a unit..when i tested it for each team i had a line of

1-1

every time that cleard i counted it as winning 2 units ..Based on this it was up almost 1000 units.. most teams picked up between 30-50 units ..as is though..it just seems to take to many units to run this ..

anyway.. i am off on vacation for 2 weeks ! ..not sure about the internet access in the condo in Florida..so good luck !

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