Posted: 6/24/2012 1:17:43 PM
Originally Posted by switchwalk
: its actually switchwalk
and fwiw; i dont think this was a case of fake line movement.Molina was scratched and suddenly the line moved across every major book.
the catcher is easily the most underrated and one of the toughest position in sports; nobody notices you until you darn up. Who is catching for a pitcher on a particular day can be huge, often times they are the ones who choose which pitch comes next in a situation, and of course familiarity between a pitcher and a catcher can instil confidence in a hurler.
The movement towards the royals may have been from sharp money coming in based off how Wainwright has performed with a catcher other than molina. that being said, i dont know what those numbers are, and i may be wrong about the reasoning; my bet was in long before lineups were announced.
That is just what i saw in that movement.....It very well could have been fake steam, you never really know. dont forget, sometimes the public wins and the sharps lose ...and not every game has a "sharp" side; if you spend all your time looking for the sharp side, you will probably just end up getting burned
IMO, a lot of people were aware that Wainwright was struggling, thus the early movement towards KC. But having even bigger movement closer to game-time tells me that some important player like Molina is out, but the average person outside Missouri would not know this.
Thus, looking deeper into why there was a late move is crucial to my handicapping. It is a small, but important piece of the handicapping puzzle. However, from experience and getting burned many times, relying SOLELY on movement for making wagers is a great way to go broke, as it is lazy handicapping.