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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: The over/under is 189.5 for Raptors/Wizards?
sicknesscity
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#1
Posted: 4/1/2012 1:16:18 AM
Okay, I'm not a big fan of totals but the Wizards will be without Nene and Booker.  That definitely hurts them up front for second-chance points.  Secondly, the Wizards have gone under the set total for the last 10 games in a row.  Are people just seeing that it's the Wizards and they automatically assume they'll give up a ton of points?
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sicknesscity
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#2
Posted: 4/1/2012 1:26:33 AM
I should add the total went up to 189.5 from 188.  I just don't understand the movement when the Wizards are consistently going under the total lately.
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#3
Posted: 4/1/2012 1:39:21 AM
I have no idea what's going on.  I bet under 188,5 and thought I was getting a bargain. 
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#4
Posted: 4/1/2012 1:42:44 AM
The idea could be that Wash has a letdown after the upset win, but I've been riding the Wizards' under train and have been worried that the close losses would discourage them and result in less defensive effort.  With a positive result for a change, the Wizards' commitment to defense may be even greater this time out.
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sicknesscity
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#5
Posted: 4/1/2012 9:00:28 AM
Now it's up to 190.  If anyone is taking the over, what's the angle you're using to support the over being a strong bet?
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#6
Posted: 4/1/2012 9:08:59 AM
I think people are looking at the last few games from Toronto.  Totals are all over 200.  Toronto seems to be pushing the pace, and can't really stop anyone.  Just a guess though...
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#7
Posted: 4/1/2012 9:29:29 AM
Also, are you sure Nene is out? He's listed as questionable...I went back and looked at the box scores of the two teams...I actually think this line is about right.  Toronto has given up tons of outside, and inside shots, no defense, and an up pace tempo this last week...Bargnani is back and seems to be back to putting up big points...I'm going to lay off it...in my opinion the line is about right.

GL Though!
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#8
Posted: 4/1/2012 9:40:39 AM
Look ahead for Washington.... They must be resting there big men against a team they think they can handle....   Washington plays Monday Wednesday Thursday Friday,,, Toronto plays Tuesday Wednesday Friday,,,,   Both teams had day off yesterday
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sicknesscity
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#9
Posted: 4/1/2012 9:43:25 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

Also, are you sure Nene is out? He's listed as questionable...I went back and looked at the box scores of the two teams...I actually think this line is about right.  Toronto has given up tons of outside, and inside shots, no defense, and an up pace tempo this last week...Bargnani is back and seems to be back to putting up big points...I'm going to lay off it...in my opinion the line is about right.

GL Though!


It's not a guarantee but I'll be surprised if he plays.  Also, I saw the same thing you mentioned about Toronto's games, but those were against Chicago, Miami, Denver and Orlando.  I don't think Washington is the same caliber as those teams.  It'd be nice if a couple of the regulars who play totals could provide some insight on this game.
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#10
Posted: 4/1/2012 10:13:57 AM

Here's someone who likes the over:

http://sportschatplace.com/nba/john/2012/april/1/toronto/washington/

 

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sicknesscity
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#11
Posted: 4/1/2012 10:51:57 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mws:

Here's someone who likes the over:

http://sportschatplace.com/nba/john/2012/april/1/toronto/washington/

 



Interesting.  The total is now at 191.  I don't have any empirical evidence to back it up, but I feel like that the public loses a fair amount of the time when they push a total hard in one direction.  The oddsmakers do a good job with crunching the numbers and I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being a 99-90 win for the Raptors.
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sicknesscity
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#12
Posted: 4/1/2012 11:47:23 AM
I guess I'll take it at 191.5 unless it'll go up another half point or full point.  I just don't see where the scoring will come from for the Wizards today but maybe I'm wrong.
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#13
Posted: 4/1/2012 12:00:11 PM
take the Raptors ! its a safer bet !!!!!!!!!

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#14
Posted: 4/1/2012 1:41:09 PM
Now at 192 -101 at 5Dimes.
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#15
Posted: 4/1/2012 7:06:14 PM
First half has seen a very slow pace and only 5 free throws, with just 88 points despite the teams combining to shoot over 50%.
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#16
Posted: 4/1/2012 7:10:58 PM
correction:  6 free throws
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sicknesscity
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#17
Posted: 4/1/2012 8:58:05 PM
Wow, mws, I'm sorry you lost your wager.  This did illustrate the theory I posted in this thread about the public pushing the total too high or too low, although it's just one prediction and I said 99-90.  I got home from my friend's house a few minutes ago and did this when I saw the score...
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