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Author:	[MLB Betting] Topic: 7/17 - MLB Breakdown Sheets
buffalo11	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Mirage \|
Captain Joined: Mar 2011 Posts: 8490 Location: New York	#51 Posted: 7/17/2012 1:04:29 PM good picks last night keep it up
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js4u	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 618 Location:	#52 Posted: 7/17/2012 1:10:51 PM No seet on Balty and Minn?
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js4u	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 618 Location:	#53 Posted: 7/17/2012 1:12:09 PM sheet
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thecrippler	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Jun 2012 Posts: 514 Location:	#54 Posted: 7/17/2012 1:28:25 PM The Angels present the same scenario as Cleveland yesterday with the wrong team being favored. Thoughts? Love the Angels today
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thecrippler	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Jun 2012 Posts: 514 Location:	#55 Posted: 7/17/2012 1:32:18 PM You have the Angels at 52.3 - 47.7 and Vegas has Detroit -120 Game 967-968: LA Angels at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Richards) 16.790; Detroit (Turner) 15.270 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9 1/2 Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 10 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+100); Under Been following him since the 90's They have been doing this as a generational process in the family since the 1920's
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gasman33	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Sep 2006 Posts: 1636 Location:	#56 Posted: 7/17/2012 1:45:00 PM hey si1ly, what are the "key numbers" you really focus in on from your sheets? rmb5w looked and found an interesting stat that might be looked into, but what really determines your pulling the trigger? How has your projected run total held up this year... would it be up on $$$ so far? thanks...
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si1ly	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 12061 Location: Florida	#57 Posted: 7/17/2012 3:35:57 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by gasman33: hey si1ly, what are the "key numbers" you really focus in on from your sheets? rmb5w looked and found an interesting stat that might be looked into, but what really determines your pulling the trigger? How has your projected run total held up this year... would it be up on $$$ so far? thanks... Honestly, there are no "key numbers" on those sheets. They're all relevant in their own way and they all contribute to the bigger picture of the game at hand. The funny thing is, you can look at the data on these sheets as the key numbers that I've picked out from the seemingly limitless pool of baseball data. And even then, I don't think the sheets are 100% sufficient.
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si1ly	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 12061 Location: Florida	#58 Posted: 7/17/2012 3:38:57 PM To answer your question about the totals, I haven't tracked a blind record but I seem to do well when my model projects a 2 run differential between the Vegas line. My model also naturally favors the under because hitting anomalies are much harder to predict. You'll notice the range is usually within 5 and 11 runs with the majority falling between 7 and 9. Obviously baseball features games that range from 1 run to 30 runs.. my model isn't able to predict significant statistical anomalies.
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Louis_IV	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Hall of Fame Joined: Feb 2007 Posts: 27472 Location: Ohio	#59 Posted: 7/17/2012 3:39:37 PM
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Gizzmo808	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Jan 2012 Posts: 108 Location: Arizona	#60 Posted: 7/17/2012 4:05:16 PM
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thecrippler	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Jun 2012 Posts: 514 Location:	#61 Posted: 7/17/2012 4:14:44 PM The Angels present the same scenario as Cleveland yesterday with the wrong team being favored. Thoughts? Love the Angels today
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si1ly	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 12061 Location: Florida	#62 Posted: 7/17/2012 4:19:51 PM @Crippler The line is off by 9 cents or 2.4% winning probability. That's certainly within the margin of error of my model. Not to mention, Jacob Turner has a limited number of innings so his data isn't relative anyways. I would ignore the projections on this game altogether.. but even if you don't the Vegas line looks to be reasonably accurate. I don't see a good reason to be on either side.
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MakeitRain84	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Feb 2011 Posts: 701 Location: California	#63 Posted: 7/17/2012 4:20:40 PM i kind of like the rangers tonight over the athletics. I know the A's have been playing way better baseball and are playing better then the rangers, but rangers historically have played really well against the A's. Sometimes teams just have other teams numbers and thats all you need. I think Josh Hamilton has a field day off colon. Rangers + O7.5 please!
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js4u	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 618 Location:	#64 Posted: 7/17/2012 4:23:57 PM BOL tonight. I am on the Yanks tonight risking 3k to win 2,550 on the RL.
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thecrippler	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Jun 2012 Posts: 514 Location:	#65 Posted: 7/17/2012 4:27:50 PM Any game you would recommend parleying with the Yankees ML I am leaning Atlanta. Any thoughts or suggestions?
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NSNS	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 10 Location:	#66 Posted: 7/17/2012 4:57:01 PM Thanx Silly! I love reading your picks and the reasons behind them. Your generosity is greatly appriciated and is def not taken for granted. GL!!!
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cardifkill	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Veteran Joined: Jun 2012 Posts: 2419 Location: California	#67 Posted: 7/17/2012 5:49:14 PM
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keepitstrict	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports \|
All-Star Joined: Nov 2009 Posts: 11113 Location: Ontario	#68 Posted: 7/17/2012 6:32:32 PM
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