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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: 7:35 EST - Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
si1ly
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#1
Posted: 5/1/2012 5:54:51 PM
'10-11 NBA:  90-67  (57.3%)  +19.90u
'10-11 NBA-P:  30-16  (65.2%)  +18.25u
'10-11 NCAAB:  8-1  (88.9%)  +7.90u
'10-11 NHL-P:  11-4  (73.3%)  +7.00u
'10-11 MLB:  97-66  (59.8%)  +31.61u
'10-11 MLB-P:  9-3  (75.0%)  +9.22u
'11-12 NCAAF:  16-21  (43.2%)  -7.40u
'11-12 NCAAF-P:  9-6  (60.0%)  +1.65u
'11-12 NFL:  42-35-1  (54.5%)  +5.05u
'11-12 NFL-P:  5-5  (50.0%)  -0.40u
'11-12 NCAAB:  9-3  (75.0%)  +5.70u
'11-12 NCAAB-P:  5-3  (62.5%)  +1.60u
'11-12 NBA:  77-80 (49.0%)  -13.28u

'11-12 NBA-P:  1-3 (25.0%)  -2.35u


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#2
Posted: 5/1/2012 5:55:12 PM
7:35 EST - Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks Under 173.5 (-110)

7:35 EST - Atlanta Hawks -4 (-110)

I know the Hawks ATS wager is a little on the square side, but remember my model predicted them to win their home games by an average margin of victory of 6.59 points.  I really should have been on them in the first game, but I played light cards for the first set to see how these coaches would play the series.  Well now we know that the Hawks are significantly more athletic than the Celtics.  Watching KG in particular and you really got a sense of how old this team feels at this point in the season.  He flat out didn't participate in some of the offensive sets as he was more willing to hang back on the defensive end and watch his team throw up long range jumpers.  Not a good sign when your 4/5 player isn't even inside the perimeter to crash the boards - no wonder the Celtics rank last in offensive rebounding.  Now with Rondo out for this game I really have to back the Hawks at this ridiculously short line no matter how square it is.  I've run the numbers in my playoff series breakdown thread but I'll re-post them here so you can see exactly how Rondo's absence will affect the Celtics both offensively and defensively:

When Rondo is off the court the Celtics power ranking drops 4.71 points.  The projected spread for Atlanta home games is thus adjusted from ATL -6.59 to ATL -11.30.

Rondo has a bigger impact on the total.  Here are the Celtics projected Points For (PF) and Points Against (PA) when Rondo is ON versus OFF the court:

PF:  96.91  >>>  89.44  (Net: -7.47)
PA:  93.68  >>>  90.92  (Net:  -2.76)

The projected total of 172.46 should therefor be adjusted down 10.23 points to 162.23.

Projected line and total for game 2 (without Rondo):

Atlanta Hawks:  -11.30     /     Total:  162.23

And there you have it.  My model projects the Hawks to win by 11 points with a total score of 162.  I don't need to repeat myself why I like the under so much in this series.  If you want a refresher, just read my write-up in my playoff breakdown sheet linked in the following post.  It's pretty simple really, at the current Vegas line of ATL -4 and 173.5, I don't think Vegas has corrected the spread or total as much as they should have.  There's value in both markets and that's why I'm playing both the side and total in this game.
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#3
Posted: 5/1/2012 5:55:40 PM
#4 Boston Celtics vs #5 Atlanta Hawks.pdf
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#4
Posted: 5/1/2012 6:00:35 PM
Quality work as always, si1ly
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#5
Posted: 5/1/2012 6:05:22 PM
nice work si.  On ATL and the under with ya. 
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#6
Posted: 5/1/2012 6:06:45 PM

Line should be 15! Thinks this stinks for the bettors. The books clean up in these spots.

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#7
Posted: 5/1/2012 6:11:27 PM
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#8
Posted: 5/1/2012 6:14:04 PM
Boston ML or Boston +5, however you like it.
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#9
Posted: 5/1/2012 6:18:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mikechad33:

Line should be 15! Thinks this stinks for the bettors. The books clean up in these spots.


The fishiest line is in the Laker game later tonight.  Lakers dominate and the spread doesn't move an inch until today?  Well it's moving today because the public is pounding the Lakers.  Why didn't the spread move early?  Because sharp money will be coming in on Denver and they're waiting for the books to adjust the spread to 5 or 5.5.  Denver will cover and the books will clean up on public money.  This spread stinks more than the Atlanta one.  Remember, Atlanta was heavy underdogs in the series and the first game was ATL -1.  They moved that line 3.5 points for this game to account for both Rondo's absence and the Hawks first game victory.  What did you expect the books to do in this situation, move the spread to Atlanta -7?  A little fishy maybe, but the adjustment falls within a reasonable tolerance and I'm not deterred.
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#10
Posted: 5/1/2012 6:20:39 PM
Nice
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#11
Posted: 5/1/2012 7:23:08 PM
I've got a full card tonight, let's get this first game started out on the right foot.

Good luck everyone.  
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#12
Posted: 5/1/2012 7:30:04 PM
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#13
Posted: 5/1/2012 7:30:37 PM
I liked Lakers too, but I don't think i'd say dominated. Other than the first qtr it was pretty close
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#14
Posted: 5/1/2012 7:32:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CCMKD:

I liked Lakers too, but I don't think i'd say dominated. Other than the first qtr it was pretty close

No, I completely agree with you.  I should have made this clearer.  The public perception is that the Lakers dominated.  The reality is that the game was closer than we think and more a case of one team under performing and the other over performing.  The unchanged line and total tells me that Vegas still thinks Denver can cover in a high scoring game.  I agree with Vegas in this assessment.
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#15
Posted: 5/1/2012 7:47:53 PM
Oh jeez, nice dunk attempt.  What a criminal.
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#16
Posted: 5/1/2012 7:49:18 PM
Celtics win.  Hawks lose.  Next game
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#17
Posted: 5/1/2012 8:03:23 PM
I'm on Atlanta as well. I also had to add the Atlanta exact series 4-2 at +6560 to roll with the Atlanta wins the series.

I know they would have to close the series on the road, but can always hedge this around game 4-5.


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#18
Posted: 5/1/2012 8:44:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by eyemtlaw:

I'm on Atlanta as well. I also had to add the Atlanta exact series 4-2 at +6560 to roll with the Atlanta wins the series.

I know they would have to close the series on the road, but can always hedge this around game 4-5.



That must be a typo.  65-1 odds on Atlanta in 6 when they were 1.75-1 to win the series?  That can't be right.
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#19
Posted: 5/1/2012 8:45:26 PM
Good pace so far.  Another relatively high scoring first but then the defenses took over in the second.  If the second half is played similarly to yesterday we'll see the scoring continue to decline as these teams settle even more into playoff style half court sets.
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#20
Posted: 5/1/2012 8:47:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


That must be a typo.  65-1 odds on Atlanta in 6 when they were 1.75-1 to win the series?  That can't be right.


Your probably right and i will probably see an adjustment or cancel.
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#21
Posted: 5/1/2012 8:55:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by eyemtlaw:



Your probably right and i will probably see an adjustment or cancel.

Cross your fingers man.  I've got Atlanta in the series so it goes without saying I think they can get it done.  I even like them in 6-7 games.  Check your books policy on "obviously wrong lines".  Or if you're worried about them canceling the bet altogether, notify your book of the mistake and ask them to give you an accurate line.  In a perfect world they win in 6 and your book doesn't bother to check the error.  65-1 on a series bet is insane value!
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#22
Posted: 5/1/2012 9:07:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


The fishiest line is in the Laker game later tonight.  Lakers dominate and the spread doesn't move an inch until today?  Well it's moving today because the public is pounding the Lakers.  Why didn't the spread move early?  Because sharp money will be coming in on Denver and they're waiting for the books to adjust the spread to 5 or 5.5.  Denver will cover and the books will clean up on public money.  This spread stinks more than the Atlanta one.  Remember, Atlanta was heavy underdogs in the series and the first game was ATL -1.  They moved that line 3.5 points for this game to account for both Rondo's absence and the Hawks first game victory.  What did you expect the books to do in this situation, move the spread to Atlanta -7?  A little fishy maybe, but the adjustment falls within a reasonable tolerance and I'm not deterred.

i think sharp money was placed in denver first(hence the line moving from -5 to -4.5 yesterday) and then went back to -5 now rising up to -5.5. maybe some big money manipulation perhaps?
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#23
Posted: 5/1/2012 10:16:19 PM
7:35 EST - Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks Under 173.5 (-110)  
7:35 EST - Atlanta Hawks -4 (-110)  

The under continues to be a gold mine in this series, but the Celtics showed some serious heart in the fourth quarter to take over the game and steal home court for the series.  Gutsy performance by the Truth in particular.


'11-12 NBA-P:  2-4 (33.3%)  -2.45u
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#24
Posted: 5/1/2012 10:23:11 PM
Regardless...1-1 and great input...thanks for your time and efforts!

Look forward to more...
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#25
Posted: 5/1/2012 10:29:15 PM
phenomenally in-depth and informative writeups as usually, my good man
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