Thursday Night - NBA

Forum: NBA Betting
Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Thursday Night - NBA
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 4/12/2012 6:43:18 PM
'10-11 NBA:  90-67  (57.3%)  +19.90u
'10-11 NBA-P:  30-16  (65.2%)  +18.25u
'10-11 NCAAB:  8-1  (88.9%)  +7.90u
'10-11 NHL-P:  11-4  (73.3%)  +7.00u
'10-11 MLB:  97-66  (59.8%)  +31.61u
'10-11 MLB-P:  9-3  (75.0%)  +9.22u
'11-12 NCAAF:  16-21  (43.2%)  -7.40u
'11-12 NCAAF-P:  9-6  (60.0%)  +1.65u
'11-12 NFL:  42-35-1  (54.5%)  +5.05u
'11-12 NFL-P:  5-5  (50.0%)  -0.40u
'11-12 NCAAB:  9-3  (75.0%)  +5.70u
'11-12 NCAAB-P:  5-3  (62.5%)  +1.60u

'11-12 NBA:  64-70-1 (47.8%)  -14.28u


7:05 EST - Charlotte Bobcats +5.5 (-110)

Charlotte is getting no love from the oddsmakers with this line.  They're catching 5.5 points at home against a Detroit team that is 6-24 straight up on the road.  There's no need to over-analyze this game because quite frankly you won't find many statistical reasons to back the Bobcats.  Charlotte has been a "blind fade" team all season and despite Vegas' best efforts to inflate their opponent's spreads they're still 21-35 (37.5%) ATS.  This line is a prime example of how much value Vegas is willing to give up to get Charlotte back closer to a .500 ATS team.  Even still, the public is content to continue blindly fading this team.  Not me, this is the kind of value that I look for.  This is a pick'em game.  Detroit squeaks by with a one possession win:  95-93.

DET@CHA.pdf


8:35 EST - San Antonio Spurs -5.5 (-110)

San Antonio has owned Memphis this season.  They're 3-0 with an average margin of victory of 8 points per game.  Tonight they'll be going for the season sweep as well as to avoid their first three game losing streak of the season.  The key stat to look at in this match-up is turnover rate.  Memphis' biggest strength is in their ability to turn their opponents over.  Bad news for the Grizzlies, the Spurs rank #1 in ball security.  The Spurs on the other hand should take more trips to the free throw line and make a higher percentage of shots.  Even though they're on a back to back, none of the starters played more than 27 minutes and the Spurs legitimately go 10 deep.  The Spurs match-up well against the Grizzlies and they should be able to take this game comfortably.  102-93 SAS

MEM@SAS.pdf
MIKECOUU78 PM MIKECOUU78
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Posted: 4/12/2012 6:43:31 PM
LaDaddy PM LaDaddy
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Posted: 4/12/2012 6:44:55 PM
digging it...bit not playing it,gL
LaDaddy PM LaDaddy
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Posted: 4/12/2012 6:45:06 PM
but****
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 4/12/2012 6:52:01 PM
I will be watching the HEAT @ BULLS game closely.  I know my model projects the Bulls to win by several possessions.. but this line just doesn't make sense.  Setting Chicago at less than -3.5 suggests that the Heat are a better team.  Certainly this isn't true, they're 16-11 on the road and they're 3 games back of the Bulls in the Eastern conference.  So why is this line so short?  I've got a hunch that Vegas is tipping their hand with this line and the Heat are the right play.  I'm not willing to sell 5 points of value to back them though so I'll wait and see how the game is going at halftime.  If the Heat are playing with 100% effort, I'll be riding them to the ticket window in the second half.
VietBlonde PM VietBlonde
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Posted: 4/12/2012 6:52:32 PM

Hi si1ly!!!

Thanks for the win yesterday and I am on board with you today also.  Let's make  tonight!!!

When do you think you will start posting NHL playoff?

si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 4/12/2012 6:54:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by VietBlonde:

Hi si1ly!!!

Thanks for the win yesterday and I am on board with you today also.  Let's make  tonight!!!

When do you think you will start posting NHL playoff?


I like to wait and see who has the hot goalie before I start wagering on the games.  I'll be watching closely for the right spots.  I LOVE playoff hockey.
dduukkee PM dduukkee
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Posted: 4/12/2012 7:00:21 PM
gl on both
VietBlonde PM VietBlonde
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Posted: 4/12/2012 7:02:57 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by si1ly]

I like to wait and see who has the hot goalie before I start wagering on the games.  I'll be watching closely for the right spots.  I LOVE playoff hockey.
 
Hi si1ly,
 
I will be checking daily for your NHL playoff. Thanks again!!!
 
DaBao PM DaBao
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Posted: 4/12/2012 7:09:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:

I will be watching the HEAT @ BULLS game closely.  I know my model projects the Bulls to win by several possessions.. but this line just doesn't make sense.  Setting Chicago at less than -3.5 suggests that the Heat are a better team.  Certainly this isn't true, they're 16-11 on the road and they're 3 games back of the Bulls in the Eastern conference.  So why is this line so short?  I've got a hunch that Vegas is tipping their hand with this line and the Heat are the right play.  I'm not willing to sell 5 points of value to back them though so I'll wait and see how the game is going at halftime.  If the Heat are playing with 100% effort, I'll be riding them to the ticket window in the second half.


Why would Vegas help the Heats as 60% of the public are on them? Doesn't make sense to me.
phat03 PM phat03
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Posted: 4/12/2012 7:26:25 PM
8:35 EST - San Antonio Spurs -5.5 (-110)
Laroja PM Laroja
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Posted: 4/12/2012 7:28:36 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by si1ly:

I will be watching the HEAT @ BULLS game closely.  I know my model projects the Bulls to win by several possessions.. but this line just doesn't make sense.  Setting Chicago at less than -3.5 suggests that the Heat are a better team.  Certainly this isn't true, they're 16-11 on the road and they're 3 games back of the Bulls in the Eastern conference.  So why is this line so short?  I've got a hunch that Vegas is tipping their hand with this line and the Heat are the right play.  I'm not willing to sell 5 points of value to back them though so I'll wait and see how the game is going at halftime.  If the Heat are playing with 100% effort, I'll be riding them to the ticket window in the second half.

Agreed, kinda the first thing I thought. Great analysis on the other games.

Reach PM Reach
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Posted: 4/12/2012 7:37:26 PM
Appreciate all the work u put in this forum. The thing that scares me in siding with the spurs is zach randolph. His return and the grizzlies beating the heat and okc on the road is not a coincidence. Plus the grizzlies beat the spurs last years playoffs as an 8 seed with randolph. Good luck silly!
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si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 4/12/2012 11:31:44 PM
7:05 EST - Charlotte Bobcats +5.5 (-110)  
8:35 EST - San Antonio Spurs -5.5 (-110)  

I'm a stats guy and Charlotte has no statistical triggers to back them on.. but I just can't get past the fact that if you blindly faded them this year you'd be winning 2 out of every 3 bets. Vegas HATES when this happens. They're giving away free points to help them cover and it doesn't seem to help at all. I guess they are just THAT bad.  The Spurs game went by the numbers.  10 point win on a game my model projected them to win by 9.


'11-12 NBA:  65-71-1 (47.8%)  -14.38u
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