#1 Posted: 4/12/2012 6:43:18 PM '10-11 NBA: 90-67 (57.3%) +19.90u '10-11 NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u '10-11 NCAAB: 8-1 (88.9%) +7.90u '10-11 NHL-P: 11-4 (73.3%) +7.00u '10-11 MLB: 97-66 (59.8%) +31.61u '10-11 MLB-P: 9-3 (75.0%) +9.22u '11-12 NCAAF: 16-21 (43.2%) -7.40u '11-12 NCAAF-P: 9-6 (60.0%) +1.65u '11-12 NFL: 42-35-1 (54.5%) +5.05u '11-12 NFL-P: 5-5 (50.0%) -0.40u '11-12 NCAAB: 9-3 (75.0%) +5.70u '11-12 NCAAB-P: 5-3 (62.5%) +1.60u
'11-12 NBA: 64-70-1 (47.8%) -14.28u
7:05 EST - Charlotte Bobcats +5.5 (-110)
Charlotte is getting no love from the oddsmakers with this line. They're catching 5.5 points at home against a Detroit team that is 6-24 straight up on the road. There's no need to over-analyze this game because quite frankly you won't find many statistical reasons to back the Bobcats. Charlotte has been a "blind fade" team all season and despite Vegas' best efforts to inflate their opponent's spreads they're still 21-35 (37.5%) ATS. This line is a prime example of how much value Vegas is willing to give up to get Charlotte back closer to a .500 ATS team. Even still, the public is content to continue blindly fading this team. Not me, this is the kind of value that I look for. This is a pick'em game. Detroit squeaks by with a one possession win: 95-93.
DET@CHA.pdf
8:35 EST - San Antonio Spurs -5.5 (-110)
San Antonio has owned Memphis this season. They're 3-0 with an average margin of victory of 8 points per game. Tonight they'll be going for the season sweep as well as to avoid their first three game losing streak of the season. The key stat to look at in this match-up is turnover rate. Memphis' biggest strength is in their ability to turn their opponents over. Bad news for the Grizzlies, the Spurs rank #1 in ball security. The Spurs on the other hand should take more trips to the free throw line and make a higher percentage of shots. Even though they're on a back to back, none of the starters played more than 27 minutes and the Spurs legitimately go 10 deep. The Spurs match-up well against the Grizzlies and they should be able to take this game comfortably. 102-93 SAS
MEM@SAS.pdf |