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Author:	[NBA Betting] Topic: NBA - Relative Point Spread Rankings (04/12)
si1ly	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 12061 Location: Florida	#1 Posted: 4/12/2012 2:52:14 PM These are the updated relative point spread rankings as of March 20th, 2012. I've included in this thread separate power rankings for home and away. We're deep enough into the season that teams have played a statistically relevant amount of games both at home and away. This model works the same as before except the power rankings are derived using only home splits and only away splits respectively. This means you no longer need to adjust for home court advantage: just take the differential between the home team's PSR and the away team's PSR and you have your true line (less adjustment for intangibles). These numbers are the result of a complex formula that gives different weights to the metrics that most accurately predict the outcome of a basketball game (the big 4 are eFG%, TOR, ORR, FTR among other things). While I'm not willing to divulge the specific formula I've come up with I am willing to explain a little about how it works. This formula effectively converts each of the aforementioned stat categories into a separate value that represents the number of points that a team is better or worse than their competitor (specific to each stat). I do this by using the differential between the offensive and defensive rates for each of these stat categories. I then apply a relative weight to each of these differentials depending on how significant an influence that stat has on determining the winner. This also normalizes the numbers so they can be compared from one team to another. eFG% is the most important - it has about 45% relative weight in my model. ORR and TOR each have about 18% weight and FTR about 7%. There are a few other metrics that I look at, but don't have more than 5% weight. Add up all the individual stat point spread adjustments and you get your total point spread ranking for a team.
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si1ly	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 12061 Location: Florida	#2 Posted: 4/12/2012 2:52:26 PM HOME POWER RANKINGS 01. Chicago Bulls +5.6 02. Oklahoma City Thunder +5.5 03. Miami Heat +5.4 04. Los Angeles Lakers +4.6 05. Houston Rockets +4.2 06. Boston Celtics +3.7 07. Los Angeles Clippers +3.4 08. Atlanta Hawks +3.2 09. San Antonio Spurs +3.2 10. Memphis Grizzlies +3.0 11. New York Knicks +2.6 12. Indiana Pacers +2.5 13. Orlando Magic +2.5 14. Philadelphia 76ers +2.4 15. Denver Nuggets +2.4 16. Dallas Mavericks +2.1 17. Phoenix Suns +1.7 18. Utah Jazz +1.6 19. Portland Trailblazers +0.9 20. Sacramento Kings +0.5 21. Milwaukee Bucks +0.3 22. Golden State Warriors -0.5 23. New Orleans Hornets -0.5 24. Minnesota Timberwolves -0.9 25. Detroit Pistons -1.0 26. Cleveland Cavaliers -1.5 27. New Jersey Nets -1.8 28. Toronto Raptors -2.0 29. Washington Wizards -2.7 30. Charlotte Bobcats -4.6
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si1ly	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 12061 Location: Florida	#3 Posted: 4/12/2012 2:52:35 PM AWAY POWER RANKINGS 01. Chicago Bulls +4.5 02. Oklahoma City Thunder +2.9 03. Denver Nuggets +1.7 04. Miami Heat +1.3 05. Atlanta Hawks +0.6 06. Minnesota Timberwolves +0.5 07. Orlando Magic +0.5 08. Indiana Pacers -0.3 09. Los Angeles Lakers -0.4 10. Milwaukee Bucks -0.6 11. Philadelphia 76ers -0.8 12. San Antonio Spurs -0.8 13. Los Angeles Clippers -0.9 14. Boston Celtics -1.0 15. Cleveland Cavaliers -1.5 16. New York Knicks -1.6 17. Golden State Warriors -1.6 18. Phoenix Suns -1.8 19. Dallas Mavericks -2.2 20. Memphis Grizzlies -2.2 21. New Orleans Hornets -3.0 22. New Jersey Nets -3.3 23. Houston Rockets -3.3 24. Utah Jazz -3.7 25. Portland Trailblazers -4.0 26. Toronto Raptors -4.3 27. Detroit Pistons -4.4 28. Washington Wizards -4.7 29. Sacramento Kings -5.7 30. Charlotte Bobcats -6.3
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si1ly	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 12061 Location: Florida	#4 Posted: 4/12/2012 2:54:58 PM Thanks to Prophet777 and PitchBlack2011 for updating the home/away four factors splits that I use in this formula. Saved me a great deal of time.
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PitchBlack2011	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: BetOnline.ag \|
Rookie Joined: Nov 2011 Posts: 898 Location: West Virginia	#5 Posted: 4/12/2012 2:58:17 PM Actually Prophet deserves all the credit this time...I will do it next time we feel there needs to be an update... Thanks to si1ly and Prophet777...
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rentongfb	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Apr 2006 Posts: 26 Location: North Carolina	#6 Posted: 4/12/2012 3:02:43 PM thanks for sharing
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LaDaddy	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Hall of Fame Joined: Feb 2007 Posts: 22045 Location: Massachusetts	#7 Posted: 4/12/2012 3:03:03 PM Chicago is the only team in the NBA to have an undefeated record (19-0) when scoring at least 100 points.
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si1ly	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 12061 Location: Florida	#8 Posted: 4/12/2012 3:05:54 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by LaDaddy: Chicago is the only team in the NBA to have an undefeated record (19-0) when scoring at least 100 points. cool stat! They're crazy good on the road. Looking at their advanced stats and you can hardly see a difference in how they perform offensively and defensively away from Chicago. And to make this even more impressive, they've missed D.Rose for almost a third of the season. They're a great team all the way around.
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