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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Tuesday Night - NBA
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 2/21/2012 6:41:30 PM
'10-11 NBA:  90-67  (57.3%)  +19.90u
'10-11 NBA-P:  30-16  (65.2%)  +18.25u
'10-11 NCAAB:  8-1  (88.9%)  +7.90u
'10-11 NHL-P:  11-4  (73.3%)  +7.00u
'10-11 MLB:  97-66  (59.8%)  +31.61u
'10-11 MLB-P:  9-3  (75.0%)  +9.22u
'11-12 NCAAF:  16-21  (43.2%)  -7.40u
'11-12 NCAAF-P:  9-6  (60.0%)  +1.65u
'11-12 NFL:  42-35-1  (54.5%)  +5.05u
'11-12 NFL-P:  5-5  (50.0%)  -0.40u
'11-12 NCAAB:  7-2  (77.8%)  +4.80u

'11-12 NBA:  46-43-1 (52.0%)  +0.58u


1h - Miami Heat -7.5 (-110)

This game is really quite simple.  Sacramento is last in the league at defending the rim allowing opponents to shoot a staggering 68.9% at this zone.  They also allow opponents to take 27 shots per game there which translates into giving up an average of 48.3 points in the paint per game (also last in the NBA).  That's not good when playing a Heat team that lives in the paint.  The Heat generate 33% of their offense from the field with close range shots or dunks which is top 10 in the league. This translates to an average of 42.4 points in the paint per game (pretty impressive considering they play in the defensive heavy East).  This average goes up a little at home and it's safe to say that you can expect the Heat to get 50 or more PIP tonight against Sacramento.  The reason why I'm going with the first half spread instead of the full game is two-fold.  Number one, Miami prefers to start games fast as they average the highest first half total in the NBA at 54.2 points (in their last three games they're averaging 58!).  Sacramento on the other hand is at the opposite end of the spectrum averaging 45.4.  So right off the bat you have some value with this line at -7.5 since their season average differential is closer -9.  The second reason is Miami is in a sandwich game between a big revenge win against Orlando and a marquee match-up against the Knicks.  Regardless of how fast they start, they might be liable to rest their starters and relax in the second half especially if they've already built a big lead like I expect.  This thinking is in line with Miami's second half metrics (they only average 47.9 points in the second half - more than 6 less than their first half total).  At -14, a backdoor cover is very possible.  I expect Miami to have their way with Sacramento in the first half especially in the paint and on the glass.  Look for a handful of SC Top 10 dunks by James and Wade to come in the opening 24 minutes before they relax in the second half.  First half score prediction:  Miami 58 Sacramento 44.  More write-ups coming...
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#2
Posted: 2/21/2012 6:44:42 PM
 GL bro
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#3
Posted: 2/21/2012 6:49:13 PM
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#4
Posted: 2/21/2012 7:26:23 PM
8:05 EST - Philadelphia 76ers @ Memphis Grizzlies Under 181 (-110)

The public has been pounding the over all day (62% of tickets on the over) because the perception is Memphis is a high scoring team at home.  This is actually true if you look at the numbers (Memphis averages 98 points at home and only 88 points on the road).  However, Philadelphia is not your average NBA team.  Memphis actually struggles against the NBA's elite, especially teams with exceptional defenses.  Memphis is 3-6 SU when playing an opponent in the top 10 in defensive eFG% and they're 3-9 when playing an opponent in the top 10 in point differential (Philadelphia fits into both of those categories).  With that in mind, Philadelphia isn't a very strong rebounding team or very good at defending the rim (bottom 10 in both categories and with Hawes out they're even worse).  Memphis generates 31% of their offense from the field at or close to the rim which has given Philadelphia trouble this season (Miami comes to mind here).  Ultimately however, Memphis is playing their 6th game in 8 days and in an obvious fatigue situation it's easier to settle for jump shots instead of moving the ball into the paint.  Philadelphia will be without Brand until after the all star break and that's just another missing piece of a very delicately balanced offense.  They're on a 3-game skid and are only averaging 84 points per game during that span.  Both teams have revenge on their mind.  Rudy happy lost the rest of his season to a hard foul by Philadelphia's Evan Turner.  Also, this is Speights first game against his former team (traded from Philly to Memphis in January).  Philadelphia on the other hand lost both meetings with Memphis last season and will also be looking to go end their three game slide.  With pieces of their offense missing, I expect the 76ers to rely even more on their top ranked defense to get the win.  That also looks to be Memphis' best chance of winning.  The last thing Memphis wants is to get into a running game with a small 76ers team given their current fatigue spot of 6 in 8.  This write-up jumps around to a lot of different angles but I guess that's the point.  All signs seem to indicate in a slow half court basketball game with a lot of missed shots.  As far as the side goes, if Memphis can get up for this game and push the ball inside - they'll win.  If fatigue gets to them, Philadelphia will shut them down.  Either way, I don't expect either team to get to 90 points.  The books feel the same way opening the line at 179 and adjusting it up to 181 because of public money.  This game stays under the original total.
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#5
Posted: 2/21/2012 7:27:12 PM
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#6
Posted: 2/21/2012 7:28:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:

8:05 EST - Philadelphia 76ers @ Memphis Grizzlies Under 181 (-110)

The public has been pounding the over all day (62% of tickets on the over) because the perception is Memphis is a high scoring team at home.  This is actually true if you look at the numbers (Memphis averages 98 points at home and only 88 points on the road).  However, Philadelphia is not your average NBA team.  Memphis actually struggles against the NBA's elite, especially teams with exceptional defenses.  Memphis is 3-6 SU when playing an opponent in the top 10 in defensive eFG% and they're 3-9 when playing an opponent in the top 10 in point differential (Philadelphia fits into both of those categories).  With that in mind, Philadelphia isn't a very strong rebounding team or very good at defending the rim (bottom 10 in both categories and with Hawes out they're even worse).  Memphis generates 31% of their offense from the field at or close to the rim which has given Philadelphia trouble this season (Miami comes to mind here).  Ultimately however, Memphis is playing their 6th game in 8 days and in an obvious fatigue situation it's easier to settle for jump shots instead of moving the ball into the paint.  Philadelphia will be without Brand until after the all star break and that's just another missing piece of a very delicately balanced offense.  They're on a 3-game skid and are only averaging 84 points per game during that span.  Both teams have revenge on their mind.  Rudy happy lost the rest of his season to a hard foul by Philadelphia's Evan Turner.  Also, this is Speights first game against his former team (traded from Philly to Memphis in January).  Philadelphia on the other hand lost both meetings with Memphis last season and will also be looking to go end their three game slide.  With pieces of their offense missing, I expect the 76ers to rely even more on their top ranked defense to get the win.  That also looks to be Memphis' best chance of winning.  The last thing Memphis wants is to get into a running game with a small 76ers team given their current fatigue spot of 6 in 8.  This write-up jumps around to a lot of different angles but I guess that's the point.  All signs seem to indicate in a slow half court basketball game with a lot of missed shots.  As far as the side goes, if Memphis can get up for this game and push the ball inside - they'll win.  If fatigue gets to them, Philadelphia will shut them down.  Either way, I don't expect either team to get to 90 points.  The books feel the same way opening the line at 179 and adjusting it up to 181 because of public money.  This game stays under the original total.
Like both of the plays GL tonight.
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#7
Posted: 2/21/2012 7:28:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:

8:05 EST - Philadelphia 76ers @ Memphis Grizzlies Under 181 (-110)

The public has been pounding the over all day (62% of tickets on the over) because the perception is Memphis is a high scoring team at home.  This is actually true if you look at the numbers (Memphis averages 98 points at home and only 88 points on the road).  However, Philadelphia is not your average NBA team.  Memphis actually struggles against the NBA's elite, especially teams with exceptional defenses.  Memphis is 3-6 SU when playing an opponent in the top 10 in defensive eFG% and they're 3-9 when playing an opponent in the top 10 in point differential (Philadelphia fits into both of those categories).  With that in mind, Philadelphia isn't a very strong rebounding team or very good at defending the rim (bottom 10 in both categories and with Hawes out they're even worse).  Memphis generates 31% of their offense from the field at or close to the rim which has given Philadelphia trouble this season (Miami comes to mind here).  Ultimately however, Memphis is playing their 6th game in 8 days and in an obvious fatigue situation it's easier to settle for jump shots instead of moving the ball into the paint.  Philadelphia will be without Brand until after the all star break and that's just another missing piece of a very delicately balanced offense.  They're on a 3-game skid and are only averaging 84 points per game during that span.  Both teams have revenge on their mind.  Rudy happy lost the rest of his season to a hard foul by Philadelphia's Evan Turner.  Also, this is Speights first game against his former team (traded from Philly to Memphis in January).  Philadelphia on the other hand lost both meetings with Memphis last season and will also be looking to go end their three game slide.  With pieces of their offense missing, I expect the 76ers to rely even more on their top ranked defense to get the win.  That also looks to be Memphis' best chance of winning.  The last thing Memphis wants is to get into a running game with a small 76ers team given their current fatigue spot of 6 in 8.  This write-up jumps around to a lot of different angles but I guess that's the point.  All signs seem to indicate in a slow half court basketball game with a lot of missed shots.  As far as the side goes, if Memphis can get up for this game and push the ball inside - they'll win.  If fatigue gets to them, Philadelphia will shut them down.  Either way, I don't expect either team to get to 90 points.  The books feel the same way opening the line at 179 and adjusting it up to 181 because of public money.  This game stays under the original total.

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#8
Posted: 2/21/2012 7:41:15 PM
Let's go Heat!

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#9
Posted: 2/21/2012 8:11:01 PM
Seriously?  A half court three pointer at the buzzer?  C'mon Miami.. shut em down in the second quarter.




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#10
Posted: 2/21/2012 8:43:21 PM
10:05 EST - Portland Trailblazers -3.5 (-110)

I tried to fade the Spurs last night in Utah and despite the Jazz dominating the boards and points in the paint like I expected, they lost by 4 points.  San Antonio's success was from beyond the arc.  They shot 48% from the three point line hitting 10 three's (2 more than their season average).  They are one of the better 3 point shooting teams in the league (4th highest eFG% from beyond the arc) and generally speaking they're a jump shooting team.  The Spurs generate 71% of their from the field offense with jump shots.  Portland has similar size in the paint as the Jazz and they've been excellent at home as well so I expect a similar result in terms of rebounding and PIP (points in the paint) differential.  So why do I think this game is going to go differently than last night?  Well for starters, San Antonio is playing on a back to back and with their depleted squad (Manu and Splitter both out again) they're really going to feel the fatigue.  It doesn't help that this is their 7th road game in a row and they've played close games in most of them forcing their starters to log more minutes that Pop would like.  Duncan in particular played 77 minutes in his last two games - this is way more than the Spurs would like - his minute should be limited tonight.  But I said all this last night, what about Portland is different than Utah?  Portland is the second best team in the league at defending the 3 point line.  They hold opponents to an impressive eFG% of 46.3% (which translates to an actual percentage of 30.9%).  They're trending in the positive direction holding opponents below 30% in their last 4 games.  They should do well to limit the Spurs tired legs from hitting another double digit total in threes.  These two teams have already played once this season and Portland lost by 16 despite being tied entering the fourth quarter.  They're great on their home court and will definitely be looking to get some revenge against the Spurs tonight.  The books agree as they've set the line at Portland -3.5 and moved it against the public to -4.5 since the open (I still like it at -4.5 for the record).  I understand that Portland is also playing on a back to back but I don't see this affecting this team as much as the Spurs.  Using my home/away point spread rankings the line looks pretty good.  Portland at home has a +3.5 ranking and San Antonio on the road has a -0.6 ranking.  This would mean a true line of Portland -4.1 before adjusting for injuries and intangibles.  After factoring in injuries and fatigue (which tonight should equal another couple points for Portland) I'd say Portland should win this game by 6.  Not a lot of value on the line, but given Portland's tenacious three point defense, I think that will be the difference.
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#11
Posted: 2/21/2012 8:46:36 PM
Lost the first half Miami wager in part because Sacramento hit 5 threes in the first half including 1 at the buzzer to end the first quarter and 2 in the final 1:30 of the second quarter.  Heat put up 57 like I expected, but Sacramento shot better than they should have.
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#12
Posted: 2/21/2012 9:08:54 PM
Portland game off the board.  Word is Duncan and Parker are both OUT.

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#13
Posted: 2/21/2012 9:11:44 PM
Portland back up at -8  
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#14
Posted: 2/21/2012 9:41:36 PM
What you think now .. -8 ??
Im thinking SA
Posted using a mobile device.
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#15
Posted: 2/21/2012 10:03:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by timdogs17:

What you think now .. -8 ??
Im thinking SA

Books are begging for San Antonio action at this number.  Just stay away or wait for a better line at the half.  With Duncan and Parker in I projected a 6 point Trailblazer victory.  Like Portland still, but hard to pay more than -5.5 to back them now.
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#16
Posted: 2/21/2012 10:36:35 PM
Holy sh%$& Portland with 8 threes in the first quarter!  I guess if they're not defending the three ball well tonight, at least they can outscore SAS from behind the line.

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#17
Posted: 2/21/2012 10:51:20 PM
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#18
Posted: 2/21/2012 11:16:22 PM
What a first half for Portland!


  
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#19
Posted: 2/21/2012 11:50:50 PM
Portland has 103 points after 3 QTRS  #WhereAmazingHappens
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#20
Posted: 2/22/2012 12:00:43 AM
1h - Miami Heat -7.5 (-110)  
8:05 EST - Philadelphia 76ers @ Memphis Grizzlies Under 181 (-110)  
10:05 EST - Portland Trailblazers -3.5 (-110)  

Another 2-1 night that I felt could have been 3-0.  Getting a good read on things and I'm anxious to get into the all-star-break in the plus.  I'll have some time to update all my models and stats and really get after it in the second half of the season.  That's where the most money can be made.  Cheers to all my well-wishers!


'11-12 NBA:  48-44-1 (52.6%)  +1.48u
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#21
Posted: 2/22/2012 12:13:08 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:

1h - Miami Heat -7.5 (-110)  
8:05 EST - Philadelphia 76ers @ Memphis Grizzlies Under 181 (-110)  
10:05 EST - Portland Trailblazers -3.5 (-110)  

Another 2-1 night that I felt could have been 3-0.  Getting a good read on things and I'm anxious to get into the all-star-break in the plus.  I'll have some time to update all my models and stats and really get after it in the second half of the season.  That's where the most money can be made.  Cheers to all my well-wishers!


'11-12 NBA:  48-44-1 (52.6%)  +1.48u

Keep it up! All the hard work will pay off. Thanks for sharing and educating the covers community!
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