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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: It's PlayoFf Time........ And The Most Undervalued Team Is........................
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#51
Posted: 1/24/2013 10:04:33 PM
The numbers say Niners but he's probably on Balt 
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#52
Posted: 1/25/2013 8:01:31 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by theclaw:

It all began in 1997 when Denver came-out of the wild card round and went to the SB.

Since then, 15 years later the trend continues with 10 teams from the wild card round - non bye teams - making the SB.

In each of those seasons a team from the wild card round improved their game considerably in the playoffs and this looks erriely similar to the Ravens as Flacco is the highest rated QB in the playoffs.

Seems to be the prevailing trend these days with teams from the wild card round, I know one thing, I won't bet against.this trend and will likely pass on this game.

 

 

Those 10 teams from the wild card round in the SB................................10-0 ATS and 7-3 SU.

Can't go against this trend.....................................................

Because of this trend I've done some additional research and found that playoff only power ratings works well..............................

Based on playoffs only my power ratings line would be Ravens -3.

Ravens are definately playing better throughout the playoffs and look very similar to past teams from the wild card round.

Last season playoffs only had the Gaints favored over Pats, 2 years ago, Packers over Pitt.

More later.........................................................

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#53
Posted: 1/26/2013 12:31:10 AM

Playoff Numbers

  • Baltimore +3.233 / +5 TO
  • San Fran +30.75 / +2 TO

I really would not read to much into the system above as it has been proven to not be that accurate in the past. I have ran several numbers and definately have some questions.

The sample size is small....I guess you would have to ask yourself who played the stronger teams in the playoffs?

Either way Baltimore is on fire right now, but have they really played any competition? NE and Indy's D is proven to be bad. Everyone also said Denver, NE and Indy played a very weak schedule....

Did Atlanta and Green Bay play a weak schedule? We all know that SF played a much tougher schedule during the season, but I tend to lean on the idea of the playoffs are a new season.

I am definately concerned with the kicking game of SF and moderately concerned about the young QB, Kap. Even though Kap has had several games to implode this year, but he has proven himself everytime.... NO, NE, GB, ATL.....he could have easily buckled in everyone of these games. NO away, NE away, GB pick 6, and ATL down big......each time he did not falter. Another concern is SF vs great defenses, they struggled with Seattle and St. Louis.

I am leaning SF, I just think overall they are a better football TEAM with a very good defense. Just a few thoughts.....

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#54
Posted: 1/26/2013 11:31:54 AM

Free agency which began in 1993, there's evidence that it  seems to have weaken the better teams.

Just 2 short years later in 1995  and the higher seeds could no longer cover the spread in the SB.

4 years later is when teams from the wild card round began their assult on the SB, as I posted above.

In the 17 SB's since 1995 just 2 higher seeded teams have covered the spread, and one of those was 2004 no.1 seed Eagles who happen to be a 7 pt dog to the no.2 seeded Pats.

That leaves just 1 higher seeded team (the 98 Broncos covering as a no.1 seed against no.2 seeded Falcons)  to cover the line as a favorite since 1995, wow................................................

I'm on to some other playoffs only research involving the teams from the wild card round, it's early, but it's impressive thus far, and the early indication is................................it's all Ravens on SB sunday......................................

The info called the Gaints out-right win over the 2007 16-0 Pats juggernuat.

More on that later............................................

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#55
Posted: 1/26/2013 11:48:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by theclaw:

49ers -4 over Falcons --- 4.4 units to win 4 units 

I'd side with the under coming in at least one of the two games  but may not take any action here.

Good Luck Gents and enjoy the great games today....................................

This game shows the importance of getting the best available line, 3.5 was available at the time I got this but not available to me, as a number of books did close on 3.5.

I did take the 9ers in the NFL contest on the site and got 3.5 to pick-up the win.

Mypower ratings were 5-2 ATS in all games coming into championship sunday, I suppose best case they would be 6-2, worst case 5-2, as the Pats/Ravens game fell right on my line.

All-in-all pretty decent showing for my power ratings.

Largest value mismatches each week went either 1-1-1 or 2-1 depending on how one got the 49ers spread. It won  again as I suggested it would with the largest play being on Seattle +3 over Falcons.

RGIII's injury will haunt me forever, I was quite sure they would cover against Seahawks as my ratings most undervalued team of 2012, to see him limping around the field the way he did leaves a hallow feeling on the year for me.

One of the championship games did go under as I suspected.

NFL Playoffs to Date --- 2-2-1 ATS --- Won 4.4 units

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#56
Posted: 1/26/2013 12:11:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by theclaw:

 

Basically, you need to figure-out how much each  "key stat battle"  contributes to the final score.

Key stat battles are those stats which have a high correlation to winning games, the larger a team wins these battles the more often and the larger margin they will win the game.

To do this reguires digging into many boxscores and playing around with it to determine the value of each key stat battle.

If I was a computer guru I could easily do 5000 or 10,000 boxscores, but since I'm not, a calculator and alot of work is reguired.

Because of the success I've had with this method I'm now working on a different version of this.

Example, QB Passer rating has about a 80% correlation to winning.

By breaking-down many boxscores I've determined that QBPR contributes about .24 pts to the final score for each point a team outplays it's opponent.

So a team winning this battle 100-90 or by 10 pts, that 10 pt win in the QBPR contributes 2.4 pts to the final margin of the game.

Add-up all the battles and you have about what the final score should have been based on those battles.

Using this new version, Green Bay should of beat Vikes by 16.91 pts, they won by 14 therefore they gain 2.91 pts of value, which isn't much, the final score was indicative of how much Packers out-played the VIKES.

My orginal method had it GB by 15.56.

Houston pretty much out-played the Bengals by a larger amount than GB out-played Vikes.

Texans won the key stat battles by 17.21 pts, gaining  a whopping 11.02 pts of value.

My orginal method had it 17.02.

This bodes well for the Texans next week as teams out-playing the final score by such huge amounts do well the next week.

This info gives me a huge advantage over the masses that think Houston did not play that well and gives good value on backing the Texans this week...........................................................................

 

My new version did lose the Texans next game VS Pats but did do well overall in the playoffs.

I just develop this during the season and tried it the first time this playoffs, and it did quite well.

Largest value mismatches going 2-1 ATS

Power ratings with a 6 pt diff to the line  1-0 ATS.

Overvalued/undervalued teams off their most recent games as the Texans example was 2-1 ATS. Losing with the Texans but winning twice with the Ravens.

Ravens beat Colts by 26.34 pts or 11.34 more than the final score according to the method which gives the Ravens 11.34 pts of value and backs the Ravens the next game.

Ravens beat Broncos by 16.6 pts or 13.6 pts more than the final score, again Ravens recieve huge value pts and backs Ravens against the Pats.

In other words, this tells us the Ravens play on the field is far better than the look.

Based on this method in the playoffs only ..........................................

Ravens +19.96, - 49ers +11.16

Line on the SB - Ravens -8.8

As of now I've research 2 other years involving unlikely teams from the wild card round.

2007 Pats 11.34, Gaints 15.14

SB line Gaints - 3.8

2008  Pitt 14.93, Zona 20.09

SB line Zona -5.16

If not for the flukest pick-six on the last play of the first half very possible Zona wins outright.

More to come........................................................

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#57
Posted: 1/26/2013 4:38:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by theclaw:

Ravens beat Broncos by 16.6 pts or 13.6 pts more than the final score, again Ravens recieve huge value pts and backs Ravens against the Pats. 




oh boy!  be glad i just don't feel like wasting my time on this right now... but this statement is such an enormous load of horseshit it has convinced me never to open one of your threads ever again...

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Posted: 1/26/2013 6:35:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:




oh boy!  be glad i just don't feel like wasting my time on this right now... but this statement is such an enormous load of horseshit it has convinced me never to open one of your threads ever again...

 

Ravens won the ave per pass battle VS Denver by a whopping 3.4 yards per pass.

Ravens won the QB Passer Rating battle by a whopping 27.9 pts

Ravens won the TO battle by 2

Teams winning these battles by such huge amounts will go on to win the game by far and away more than 3 pts.

Denver got 2 return TD's, that is not repeatable and makes the final score look closer than what the Ravens actually out-played Denver on the field.

Return TD's rarely decide games, the QB's play does far more to decide the game and the margin of victory then any return TD's will.

And on this day the Ravens QB completely out-played Denver's by far and away more than 3 pts...............................................

That's the beauty of the method, let's you know what the most important battles that have the highest correlation to winning games  says about each teams play.............................................................

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#59
Posted: 1/26/2013 6:42:52 PM

Just finshed 3 more SB'S..............................................

LAST SEASON 2012........................

My line using playoffs only   Gaints -3.58

2011 Packers -12.9

2007 Colts -.59

Thus far in the past 5 SB's, 4-1 ATS using playoff only stats...............................................

 

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#60
Posted: 1/26/2013 6:51:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by theclaw:

Just finshed 3 more SB'S..............................................

LAST SEASON 2012........................

My line using playoffs only   Gaints -3.58

2011 Packers -12.9

2007 Colts -.59

Thus far in the past 5 SB's, 4-1 ATS using playoff only stats...............................................

 


Well this is really throwing a kink in my lean...I really like buying the hook and playing SF -3. 
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#61
Posted: 1/27/2013 12:03:25 AM

2004 SB......................................

Panthers -20.84 over Pats

1997 SB....................................

Denver -2.62 over Packers

2000 SB........................................

Gaints -11.33 over Ravens

The Panthers played the best of any team throughout the playoffs, completely dominating across the board in the "key stat battles".

Really surprised they didn't win out-right after seeing the success of the playoff only stats.

6-2 ATS using playoff only stats.

In this pass-happy era, the 1 common denominator that 7 of the 8 teams that covered the spread had is................the better QB Passing Rating differential throughout the playoffs.  This also includes Colts who lost on the line but won on this. Only team to have the higher QBPR throughout the playoffs and fail to cover in the SB................................. 2000 Gmen.

The better QBPR in this years playoffs.....................................

Ravens ave a whopping 45.9 diff per game

9ers  a very weak 6.3

It's all Ravens folks................................................................

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#62
Posted: 1/28/2013 9:17:45 PM

Final 2 teams from the  wild card round......................................

2005 season, 2006 SB - Seattle -3.04 over Pitt

Lost this one but actually I'm glad to see the Seahaks favored as Seattle got shafted with bad calls in this game, so much so that the refs apoligized to Seattle fans some years later, stating they made bad calls that determined the out-come of the game.

It wasn't just the bad calls but the big plays that those bad calls wiped-out. Like the pass down to the 2 yard line called back for a bogus holding call.  Some site reviewed the game and found if that was holding Pitt held on 8 plays that were never called.

1999 SEASON, 2000 SB - Rams -8.71 over Titans.

Interesting that this game was the closest to the actual spread giving very little value, and ended a push. One could of easily won with the wild card round team, Titans as the opened +7.5 and stayed there a number of days.

Record for playoff only --- 6-3-1 ATS (65%)

2013 SB - Ravens -8.8 over 49ers, playoffs only "key stat battles"........................................................ 

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#63
Posted: 1/28/2013 9:35:58 PM

Now let's take a look at value mismatches........................................

Value mismatches tell us which teams played better or worse than the final scores in their games.

 And because the final scores play a big role in the public's perception of the teams this gives us an advantage over the public and value with the spread.

Any mismatch over 5 is a play, and by the way this works well in the regular season,.

2012 Gmen +8.58, winner

2011 Packers +6.24, winner

2010  no wild card team

2009 Zona +3.82, no play

2008 Gmen +8.14

2007 Colts +5.27, winner, colts were a fade with power ratings line but a play here.

2006 Pitt  +.63, no play

2005 no wild card team

2004 Panthers +15.17, winner

2003 no wild card team

2002, no wild card team

2001 Gmen +.83, no play

2000 Rams +9.54, push

1999 no wild card team

1998 Denver +12.45, winner

5-0-1 ATS with a 5 pt or better value mismatch

2013 SB - Ravens +8.96 --- 49ers +2.16  = Ravens by 6.8

Ravens are flat-out playing much better than they look by 8.96 pts per game, this gives us value with the spread on the Ravens..................................................................

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#64
Posted: 1/28/2013 10:33:03 PM
Somehow I feel dumber after reading this thread.
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#65
Posted: 1/29/2013 8:38:42 PM

Actually the value mismatches went 6-0-1 ATS, but if we take-out the Colts who were a fade on the line we get............................

Value mismatches 5-0-1 ATS (91.7%) , using playoff only stats...................and

6-2-1 ATS (72.2%), using playoff only power ratings and this counting Seattle as a loss.

Yea, it's all Ravens..................................10-14 pt win....................................................................

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#66
Posted: 1/29/2013 8:56:24 PM

Now that we're in the Super Bowl let's look back at FO DVOA meteric.

According to DVOA 3 teams, Seattle, Denver and the Pats were 3 of the best teams in the DVOA era which I think goes back to 1991.

A couple of years back DVOA also  said the 2010 Pats were one of the best teams since 1991.

That's 4 teams, 4 oppurtunities for the strongest teams of the past 20 years, and not 1 team, not even 1 produced a winning record in the playoffs or made the SB, they could not even make the Super Bowl let-alone win the Super Bowl.

These 4 supposed BEST TEAMS combined  for a 2-4 record in the playoffs with 50% of them one-and-done.

Hey, go ahead and believe in this weak, weak, weak, meteric if you'd like, but it's just SILLY to assume any one of those 4 teams was/is one of the best teams since 1991.

DVOA  actually had the Eagles no.1 in a year they failed to make the playoffs. 

Seattle was 3-5 on the road this season, does that sound like a best team in a 20 year period.

The Pats were out-played in the key effeicency indicator which has a over 70% correlation to winning NFL, ave gain per pass att.

The Pats very weak 11.8 QBPR Diff, certainly is not even SB winner worthy has 80% of all SB winners produce a 13 diff or better and a 13 diff is low end for SB winners.

When one looks back at the best teams of a 20 year period, such as the 85 Bears, 91 Skins or 92 Cowboys, you can take it to the bank that these great teams dominated in one or both of these key stats.

You can look long, you can look far, you won't find any team consider the best team of a 20 year period that produced a losing road record or were out-played by it's opponents in ave gain per pass att.

Dvoa is a weak, weak, weak metric.....................................................

 

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#67
Posted: 2/3/2013 3:29:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by theclaw:

POWER RATINGS............................................................

1. 49ERS - 13.1

2. Seattle - 10.36

3. Broncos - 10.04

4. Redskins - 9.58

5. Pats - 8.58

6. Packers - 7.56

7. Texans - 6.46

8. Falcons - 4.58

9. Ravens - 4.02

10. Bengals - 3.22

11. Vikings - (-1.24)

12. Colts - (-5.96)

Find the difference between opponents and add 3 pts for home Field..................................

Ravens -12.98 over Colts

Packers -11.8 over Vikings

Texans -6.24 over Bengals

Redskins -2.22 over Seahawks

With a 6 pt difference between these and the "closing line", it's important to use the closing line as this factors in the public's perception, then we have a play.

Right now it looks like no plays, Ravens have a 5.98 diff and Skins have a 5.22 diff.

I won't adjust these ratings untill the SB, I've found they work just as well without adjusting, each week we will revisit these Power Ratings and Value Ratings and make plays.

Game-time is getting closer, Good Luck ............................................

 

There's no question the 49ers were a much better, more balanced team in the regular season.

My power rating line would be 49ers -9.08 over the Ravens based on the regular season.

There's a boatload of evidence that free agency and the pass happy era has weaken  the better teams and they no longer can dominate in the postseason like they once did.

From the 10 teams from the wild card round going 10-0 ATS and 7-3 SU in the past 15 SB's,  to the higher seeded favorite covering the spread just 1 time since 1995, just 2 short years after free agency began.

I checked back to 1985 and could not find a single team make the SB let-alone win it that gave-up 24 points or more in back-to back playoff games.

Zona in 2008 did give-up 24 and 25 but not back-to back. They did cover in the SB but as a big dog not a fav.

The 49ers last 5 games they gave-up, 24, 31, 13, 42, 34, ole man history says this doesn't bode well for teams entering the SB with such poor play defensively.

The 49ers also gave-up the largest QBPasser rating to a home losing QB to Matt Ryan in history, speaks volumes where this defense is headed.

The injusy to Smith has hurt this team quite a bit and they no longer can get to the QB.

The Ravens have performed with the same common denominators as the past team from the wild card round have done in the playoffs.

I would not bet against this trend ................................................

Playoffs only power rating line.............................

Ravens -8.8 and Ravens -6.04 in my 2 sets of power ratings.

Ravens also win the value mismatch battle by 6.8 and 4.06 pts.

In other words the Ravens are playing far better than the final scores in their games says.

I could make a strong case for this to be a best bet play on the Ravens but find it difficult to fade the 49ers would are clearly the best team coming into the playoffs but the wild card round teams are to strong a trend to pass-up here in this years SB.

I'll ride the Ravens with a small play.....................................

Ravens +4.5 over the 49ers --- 2.2 units to win 2 units

Good luck gents and enjoy the last game untill next season.........................................

 

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#68
Posted: 2/3/2013 11:37:03 PM
One of the best, great analysis of the post season hope to see you next year  
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#69
Posted: 2/4/2013 9:18:26 PM

The "key stat battles" did it again guys, producing another winning playoff run.....................................

2013 NFL Playoffs --- 3-2-1 ATS, Won  6.4 units.

Well, teams from the wild card round go to 11-0 ATS and a impressive 8-3 SU. I would not bet against this strong trend.

I think I figured-out how to identify these teams before the championship games, it's something I've been working on a few years now and was confident the Ravens would be the team prior to the AFC Championship game, I'll have that and  a few more  new things next season.

Playoffs only power rating goes to 7-2-1 ATS (75%) AND...............

Value mismatch with a diff over 5 goes to 6-0-1 ATS ......................................

In games involving teams from the wild card round............................

Hope to see everyone in the NBA Playoffs, I'll be back with the largest value mismatch of the opening round, a 4-1SU and ATS winner last season.......................................untill then guys.............thanks for coming along for the ride..........................may lady luck be your bride tonight.............................

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#70
Posted: 1/1/2014 4:41:09 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by theclaw:

 

There's no question the 49ers were a much better, more balanced team in the regular season.

My power rating line would be 49ers -9.08 over the Ravens based on the regular season.

There's a boatload of evidence that free agency and the pass happy era has weaken  the better teams and they no longer can dominate in the postseason like they once did.

From the 10 teams from the wild card round going 10-0 ATS and 7-3 SU in the past 15 SB's,  to the higher seeded favorite covering the spread just 1 time since 1995, just 2 short years after free agency began.

I checked back to 1985 and could not find a single team make the SB let-alone win it that gave-up 24 points or more in back-to back playoff games.

Zona in 2008 did give-up 24 and 25 but not back-to back. They did cover in the SB but as a big dog not a fav.

The 49ers last 5 games they gave-up, 24, 31, 13, 42, 34, ole man history says this doesn't bode well for teams entering the SB with such poor play defensively.

The 49ers also gave-up the largest QBPasser rating to a home losing QB to Matt Ryan in history, speaks volumes where this defense is headed.

The injusy to Smith has hurt this team quite a bit and they no longer can get to the QB.

The Ravens have performed with the same common denominators as the past team from the wild card round have done in the playoffs.

I would not bet against this trend ................................................

Playoffs only power rating line.............................

Ravens -8.8 and Ravens -6.04 in my 2 sets of power ratings.

Ravens also win the value mismatch battle by 6.8 and 4.06 pts.

In other words the Ravens are playing far better than the final scores in their games says.

I could make a strong case for this to be a best bet play on the Ravens but find it difficult to fade the 49ers would are clearly the best team coming into the playoffs but the wild card round teams are to strong a trend to pass-up here in this years SB.

I'll ride the Ravens with a small play.....................................

Ravens +4.5 over the 49ers --- 2.2 units to win 2 units

Good luck gents and enjoy the last game untill next season.........................................

 

Looking forward to your breakdown this year....

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#71
Posted: 2/5/2014 11:31:27 PM
2 years in a row.....
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