Posted: 8/10/2012 10:20:39 AM
Good Free pick I received yesterday from a pro.
(I got permission from the author to share this)
Hello Fellow bettors.
This is my first write up of the season and I couldn’t be more excited! I don’t place very many bets on the NFL preseason. It’s very different from regular season obviously. Last years performance and rankings aren’t good indicators of how teams will typically perform. But that doesn’t mean we can’t find some value!
Here we go!:
Cleveland @ Detroit:
The Pick: OVER 36
With preseason head coaches and OC’s are the best factor to evaluate. It is usually the coaches philosophy that drives how hard a team pushes and for how long. In 12 pre season games as coach of the Lions, Schwartz has a 10-2 record, averaging 23.4 ppg, and almost 29 ppg over the last 7 games, which went 5-2 OVER. Schwartz’ lions have only been held under 17 pts just three times of the 12 outings.
Pat Shurmur only has 4 preseason games as head coach of the Browns but in his first two games last preseason he scored 27pts and 28pts, averaging 21ppg total. The Browns were 3-1 OVER last preseason.
The Lions are eager to make all those points they racked up last year mean something this year and I think the first team offense will come out with a little fire. This will be Brandon Weeden’s first opportunity to show his stuff and he is well known as a risk taker. Also, Richardson is out with knee injury but his backup Montario Hardesty is reported to have claimed that he is as good as Richardson and will take this opportunity and “run with it.” This one should have a lot of offense. Play the OVER.