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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: September Dogs - Starting with $4k
CAP-IT send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#176
Posted: 10/1/2012 5:54:32 PM
herbshack.  You did a crazy job here picking some nice dogs in Sept.  I just looked at your thread today and wish I saw this earlier.  Regardless good luck the rest of the way.
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#177
Posted: 10/1/2012 6:11:07 PM
All of those lines got better. You are definately going against the public! Good luck!
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#178
Posted: 10/1/2012 8:18:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CAP-IT:

herbshack.  You did a crazy job here picking some nice dogs in Sept.  I just looked at your thread today and wish I saw this earlier.  Regardless good luck the rest of the way.

CAP-IT, whether you followed or not, make sure to go back through and read some of the writeups. I like dogs off of a win in September...and the big key thing is this: Never make a late season bet going with your gut. For example, don't bank on a team to beat another team because "they need this win." You can pay sports betting services to give you crap writeups on games and ones that make you feel all warm and fuzzy, but here what all of those services have in common: they always crash in September and wind up hiding their late MLB season records behind whatever good is happening in Football.

Bottom line: The good bet in sports is always the gut twister. Lots of people haven't followed me because they thought the bets looked stupid.
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#179
Posted: 10/1/2012 8:26:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ringoboy:

All of those lines got better. You are definately going against the public! Good luck!

That's the way to do it this time of year. I've studied MLB in depth. Since 2000, the public hasn't ever done worse than 54% on consensus; however, that actually a huge loss of roi. The bulk of this loss comes in the last month of regular season and in the first month. People love to bet on "good" teams in September, but in reality the winners never really seem to make sense.

What is funny is the the BIG chalk that kills everyone right now becomes a winner in April! The lines makers rake HARD with MLB. Each season plays out the same way perfectly for the books, and all they really do is tap on human emotion. Gotta make your picks without thinking too much.
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#180
Posted: 10/1/2012 8:28:57 PM
And ringo, I love giving out these dogs because by the time you guys see my post you're usually getting more value than when I posted.

In general (all sports) bet the dog as close to game time as you can and bet the favorite as early as you can for the best value.
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#181
Posted: 10/1/2012 8:41:04 PM
Herballs,
You're one of few who can intelligently assess the supporting framework of the 'play' underneath the plays on the board; it's quite the pleasure to read your reads on the action and your account thereof.


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#182
Posted: 10/1/2012 11:20:49 PM
Thanks Pendo. I don't mind giving out my plays, but the dark dirty secrets have to stay in the house. I want it to be bread and butter for at least another couple years :)

It doesn't really matter though if I share what I know: the biggest secret in gambling is that you have to intelligently take the play that stinks and makes you feel ill. As human nature will have it, I'll be coattailing the bookies and linesmakers for many many years (and already have been).
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#183
Posted: 10/1/2012 11:28:22 PM
Nice hit tonight with the Phillies.
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#184
Posted: 10/2/2012 12:44:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Absolutxedge22:

Nice hit tonight with the Phillies.

Thanks man. That was the one I liked the best. Should have narrowed it down. :/
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#185
Posted: 10/2/2012 12:54:20 PM
For 10.2.2012:

#928 Oakland Athletics +133 ($153 to win $176.89)
over the Texas Rangers

I like to take good home dogs off of 2 or more wins in their last three facing another good team. These dogs usually hit above 50% in both late regular season and in the playoffs; they actually do well most of the regular season too! Go Oakland!
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#186
Posted: 10/2/2012 1:12:20 PM
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#187
Posted: 10/2/2012 7:22:23 PM
 
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#188
Posted: 10/3/2012 12:19:23 AM
1-3 8th inning. Bring home the cheddar A's.
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#189
Posted: 10/3/2012 12:25:09 AM
Good going so far.  I hope they take the division.  TX should not go and lose another WS, imo.
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#190
Posted: 10/3/2012 1:58:01 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

For 10.2.2012:

#928 Oakland Athletics +133 ($153 to win $176.89) WINNER!
over the Texas Rangers

I like to take good home dogs off of 2 or more wins in their last three facing another good team. These dogs usually hit above 50% in both late regular season and in the playoffs; they actually do well most of the regular season too! Go Oakland!

New Bankroll: +$4,861.73 (+21.54%/Units)
(from $4000)
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#191
Posted: 10/3/2012 1:59:25 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ShadowWarrior:

Good going so far.  I hope they take the division.  TX should not go and lose another WS, imo.

I can already smell it. All season long, Texas has been great off of losses. That was my main worry here, but I did recall them folding last season.

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#192
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:03:11 AM
Herballs, you feel Tex will fold this year / or will fold in the rubber game today which decides the who's champ ??
Is Tex really all that good off of losses...
against Oak...
in last series of the 162 game season especially away....
when the game really counts for something.....
?
?
?
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#193
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:30:29 AM
give me a play for today herb
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#194
Posted: 10/3/2012 1:14:39 PM
For 10.3.2012:

#968 Oakland Athletics -1 +130 ($65 to win $84.50)
over the Texas Rangers

*For tonight I like the following Dogs: SEA, BOS, STL, SFO ; Seattle I like the best. I love betting against Weaver on the road.
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#195
Posted: 10/3/2012 6:34:17 PM
Looks like the A's might have that one for us. Let's take Seattle, my number 1 for the day for the same amount:

#970 Seattle Mariners +184 ($65 to win $119.60)
over the LA Angels

I don't like Jered Weaver and hopefully the Mariners don't either. 
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#196
Posted: 10/3/2012 7:04:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

For 10.3.2012:

#968 Oakland Athletics -1 +130 ($65 to win $84.50) WINNER!
over the Texas Rangers

*For tonight I like the following Dogs: SEA, BOS, STL, SFO ; Seattle I like the best. I love betting against Weaver on the road.

New Bankroll: +$4,946.23 (+23.66%/Units)
(from $4000)

Woof Woof wooooooof! Just kidding. That was a favorite. Nice romping and they WON THE WEST. Woo hoo; just like the movies.
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#197
Posted: 10/3/2012 7:05:51 PM
Weaver allows 2 in the first inning. I know I'm jinxing myself here but: 
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#198
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:36:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

Looks like the A's might have that one for us. Let's take Seattle, my number 1 for the day for the same amount:

#970 Seattle Mariners +184 ($65 to win $119.60) WINNER!
over the LA Angels

I don't like Jered Weaver and hopefully the Mariners don't either. 

New Bankroll: +$5,065.83 (+26.65%/Units)
(from $4000)
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#199
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:43:27 PM
Baltimore looks nice for today.
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#200
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:02:52 PM
For 10.5.2012:

#903 Baltimore Orioles +184 ($68 to win $125.12)
over the Texas Rangers

Is there something I'm missing? Why are the Orioles getting so much juice. I don't care, I'll take it.

Baltimore is 53-41 +25.07 units (+25.6% roi) this season against plus .500 teams. That's 28-22 +18.46 units (+36.9% roi) as road dogs (against +.500 teams)!

Not only that, but Baltimore is 14-3 +13.17 units (+67.8% roi) on 1+ day of rest. I trust Baltimore in the playoffs a whole lot more than I do Texas. I think the public is thinking: "the second time is a charm" and therein lies our value on this one.

Go O's! 
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