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[MLB Betting] Topic: 5 Inning Discussion Thread, Friday 4-20-2012 |
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KeyElement |
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#1 Posted: 4/20/2012 11:00:37 AM
Whenever you are ready,
5 Inning YTD: 9-18-2, -986.90
9 Inning YTD: 4-1, +456.29
Please note below I have switched books for baseball to Best Available
American Book
Cubs +105 (Bailey / Volstad) 9 Innings =
+120 BOL
All plays are a flat 100
units. Lines are current at Best Available Online American Book
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packers1992 |
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#2 Posted: 4/20/2012 11:05:40 AM |
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KeyElement |
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#3 Posted: 4/20/2012 11:08:40 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by packers1992:
key mentioned you in my thread bro. The cubs always piss you off key Yeah, they do, but I get over it and go back to determining probability versus quoted odds. I am a bigger fan of money than ANY MLB team, bar none.
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packers1992 |
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#4 Posted: 4/20/2012 11:17:11 AM  |
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MIKECOUU78 |
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#5 Posted: 4/20/2012 11:20:52 AM
nice hit on the tribes yesterday  |
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KeyElement |
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#6 Posted: 4/20/2012 11:42:07 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by MIKECOUU78: GL today buddy
nice hit on the tribes yesterday Thanx Mike, got a 5 inning suggestion today?
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LaDaddy |
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#7 Posted: 4/20/2012 11:42:56 AM |
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gamer13 |
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#8 Posted: 4/20/2012 12:31:49 PM Key, looks we both hit our bets on the last time at bat. Mariners scored bottom of 5 and Indians won in their last at bat. That is the way it is supposed to work!
2-0 F5 and 1-0 in 9 yesterday, bringing season to:
7-6-2 (F5 innings)
3-0 (9 innings)
10-6-2 (YTD)
Dont really see anything I like today, maybe a couple of totals after umps are announced. Will keep watching this thread for any info. Good luck to everyone today. |
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gamer13 |
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#9 Posted: 4/20/2012 12:45:24 PM |
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gamer13 |
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#10 Posted: 4/20/2012 1:27:14 PM Cardinals ( Lynn / Morton) (-140) F5 innings
In 2 starts this year, Lance Lynn has allowed 2 runs in 12 innings, allowing only 6 hits. Albeit those two games were against the Cubs and Brewers, but I don't see the Pirates being any more of a challenge. He has no previous starts vs the Pirates. In Mortons last 3 starts vs the Cards last year, he allowed 11 runs in 16.2 innings pitched. The Cardinals are hitting RHP at a .282 avg this year, Pirates are batting .198 vs RHP. Looks like Berkman and Jay are questionable tonight, probably why the line is only at (-140). Pitt has scored 1 or fewer F5 inning runs in 9 of their 12 games so far, scoring 2 once and 3 twice, for a total of 12 F5 inning runs in 12 games. The Cardinals have scored 43 in 13 games. |
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KeyElement |
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#11 Posted: 4/20/2012 2:13:29 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by gamer13:
Just curious, why the Cubs in 9 instead of 5? Do you trust their bullpen? Playing both 5 & 9
It is my considered opinion or experience or whatever that bullpen performance is in direct correlation to starter performance. Teams that have 5 inning starters have bad bullpens and teams that have 7 inning starters have good bullpens, check it out. So, if I expect my starter to go 6+ and have a lead the burden on the bullpen is not so great and they will probably perform well. Besides that, whoever the manager will send out there we do not know and cannot control. Coupled with the fact that we do not know what kind of day the reliever will have it all becomes somewhat of a crap shoot. What usually has the greatest effect is (and you can track this or check it out) whichever team has to go to the bullpen first is probably already in trouble and even if it is the superior bullpen, they have a greater burden on them. They must "hold the fort" and hope for an offensive comeback. Sort of neutralizes any perceived superiority. Here is another thing I get in trouble for around here. Closer is easily the most overrated position in baseball.
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gamer13 |
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#12 Posted: 4/20/2012 2:17:49 PM |
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MIKECOUU78 |
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#13 Posted: 4/20/2012 2:23:26 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by KeyElement:
Thanx Mike, got a 5 inning suggestion today?
BOS (C Buchholz) First 5 innings
I already play Boston F9 but it's really hard to believe in their bullpen.. anniversary of 100 year of Fenway with a ceremory before the game, which surely will motivate even more the Red Sox players with all the problems in the clubhouse.. This game is very important for them. |
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iceman67 |
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#14 Posted: 4/20/2012 4:47:39 PM I agree with gamer13 St. Louis 1st 5 @ -140 is a play. I have the Cards winning this game right at 2 out of 3 times, but the current line only makes you pay for them at a %58.5 odds of winning clip.
Someone talk me out of TB please,,, I have about 30 cents of line value with them , but I really have an urge to go heavy on them today. I think this is the game Moore gets his confidence going and pitches a half game shut out.
Problem is that it's the "urge" thing that usually fouls things up for me. I will be more pissed off if I lay off this and it hits, than if I play it and it bombs, anyone else have this problem, I'm constantly fighting this.
Anyway good luck to all of you guys today
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