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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NCAA Football -6 game chase 3480-1 since 1980
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
Danrules24
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#276
Posted: 10/3/2013 3:32:21 PM
I use covers for most backtesting that I do.
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gator101
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#277
Posted: 10/3/2013 4:58:42 PM
were is that located at, i looked but didn't come up with anything.  What icon is it under?  Thanks hopefully i am not ruining this thread
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#278
Posted: 10/3/2013 5:15:53 PM

Under the NCAAF tab at the top, go to each team and then you can look at previous seasons. Kind of tedious but the info is there.

I know others go a a sports database somewhere and run queries. I'm not sure where, never done it.

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gator101
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#279
Posted: 10/3/2013 7:41:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Under the NCAAF tab at the top, go to each team and then you can look at previous seasons. Kind of tedious but the info is there.

I know others go a a sports database somewhere and run queries. I'm not sure where, never done it.



Ok, thanks yeah i tried using it but its way over my head with the SQLY ETC ETC STUFF LOL
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#280
Posted: 10/3/2013 10:05:34 PM
Any plays for this week, thanks
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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#281
Posted: 10/4/2013 12:54:02 AM

Week 6, 17 teams left, all in action on Saturday and Sunday.

Still betting over on 2 teams - Georgia State and Kansas. Everyone else is the Under.

Saturday

  • Georgia State (2) - 55
  • Kansas (3) - 55.5
  • Michigan State (4) - 38.5
  • Auburn (4) - 56.5
  • Massachusets (4) - 51.5
  • Marshall (4) - 65.5
  • Memphis (4) - 47.5
  • Temple (4) - 58
  • Washington (4) - 53
  • Georgia Tech (4) - 56
  • Ohio (4) / Akron (4) - 57
  • Miami OH (5) -47
  • Wake Forest (5) - 47
  • North Carolina (5) -45.5
  • Washington State (5)  - 66.5

Sunday

  • Hawaii (5) - 55.5

 

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GreenMachine22 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#282
Posted: 10/4/2013 3:24:52 PM
I read somewhere in systems/strategies that MCSI had great success using this system on only SEC teams...he said no team went past 3 games. 

Might that be a better angle?






...food for thought. 
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#283
Posted: 10/5/2013 11:19:39 AM
Did Washington State not clear in game 3 when they went over ?

http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/teams/pastresults/2013-2014/team40.html

And Wake Forest went under in game 4

http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/teams/pastresults/2013-2014/team138.html
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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#284
Posted: 10/5/2013 11:40:29 AM
You are counting the games against non Div 1 teams. Those games don't count since you can't bet them. We treat those games as if they never happened. 
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#285
Posted: 10/6/2013 4:44:54 AM

Pretty good day on Saturday. We went 12-4, with Hawaii yet to play on Sunday.

The 4 teams left (Hawaii pending) are:

Georgia State (going to game 3)

Michigan State (going to game 5)

Washington (going to game 5)

Georgia tech (going to game 5)

Saturday

  • Georgia State (2) - 55 Loss
  • Kansas (3) - 55.5  WIN
  • Michigan State (4) - 38.5 Loss
  • Auburn (4) - 56.5 WIN
  • Massachusets (4) - 51.5 WIN
  • Marshall (4) - 65.5 WIN
  • Memphis (4) - 47.5 WIN
  • Temple (4) - 58 WIN
  • Washington (4) - 53 Loss
  • Georgia Tech (4) - 56 Loss
  • Ohio (4) / Akron (4) - 57 WIN
  • Miami OH (5) -47 WIN
  • Wake Forest (5) - 47 WIN
  • North Carolina (5) -45.5 WIN
  • Washington State (5) - 66.5 WIN

Sunday

  • Hawaii (5) - 55.5

 

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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#286
Posted: 10/7/2013 12:44:48 AM

After Sunday:

The 45 teams left are:

Georgia State (going to game 3)

Michigan State (going to game 5)

Washington (going to game 5)

Georgia tech (going to game 5)

Hawaii (going to game 6)

Saturday

  • Georgia State (2) - 55 Loss
  • Kansas (3) - 55.5 WIN
  • Michigan State (4) - 38.5 Loss
  • Auburn (4) - 56.5 WIN
  • Massachusets (4) - 51.5 WIN
  • Marshall (4) - 65.5 WIN
  • Memphis (4) - 47.5 WIN
  • Temple (4) - 58 WIN
  • Washington (4) - 53 Loss
  • Georgia Tech (4) - 56 Loss
  • Ohio (4) / Akron (4) - 57 WIN
  • Miami OH (5) -47 WIN
  • Wake Forest (5) - 47 WIN
  • North Carolina (5) -45.5 WIN
  • Washington State (5) - 66.5 WIN

Sunday

  • Hawaii (5) - 55.5 Loss
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rivermonsterz send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#287
Posted: 10/8/2013 6:26:47 AM
Has any body here continued this chase to this stage?
At a rough guess you would be laying down over 170 units for this week? Plus at least 80 you have out.
You would have made 115 units, plus the 150 unit that was advised to start with, seems as though you would be covered this week.
I was wondering if there have been any weeks where any of you have not been covered and not had the funds to continue to play?
Also with a chase system like this, is it possible that your sports book could cut you off from betting College Football. 
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#288
Posted: 10/8/2013 1:18:40 PM
I start my chase after gm3, that way I only have a 3 game chase. 

The amount of bets are lower, but you can increase the bet amount, makes it a bit easier to manage.
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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#289
Posted: 10/8/2013 1:44:20 PM

Post 286 should have said 5 teams left not 45.

With 120 teams already winning, that is 120 units or more (see below).

With the 5 teams remaining you'd be down roughly 112 units on those 5 teams for an overall profit right now.  

I'm up a little more than the standard 8 units because of how I set my bet progression.

  • Game 1 - 11 to win 10
  • Game 2 - 27.50 to win 25
  • Game 3 - 55 to win 50
  • Game 4 - 115.5 to win 105
  • Game 5 - 242 to win 220

Given the above numbers I gained 1 unit on every game 1 winner. 1.4 units on every game 2 winner, 1.15 units on game 3 winners, 1.15 on game 4 winners and 1.1 units on game 5 winners.

56 game 1 winners - 56 units

26 game 2 winners - 36.4 units

20 game 3 winners - 23 units

13 game 4 winners - 14.95 units

5 game 5 winners - 5.5 units

Total for 120 winners - 135.85 units

Losses for the 5 remaining teams totaled - 111.65 units

So my personal profit is 24.2 units. A lot lower than I wanted at this point but it's still profit. I'm done betting this as I'll walk with profit just like I did last year without seeing it all the way through.

I will continue to post for the system record sake and anyone else still betting.

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breezeyo
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#290
Posted: 10/8/2013 2:57:47 PM

I am with you Dan.  I am up about 18 units based on the way I have done my betting, enough for me to call it a day and walk away.  

One thing I might do is bet the Game 6 under combined with some bigger ML bets in a parlay.   I will probably only bet 2-3 units on this type of bet though. 

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#291
Posted: 10/8/2013 3:27:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by breezeyo:

I am with you Dan.  I am up about 18 units based on the way I have done my betting, enough for me to call it a day and walk away.  

One thing I might do is bet the Game 6 under combined with some bigger ML bets in a parlay.   I will probably only bet 2-3 units on this type of bet though. 


I played week 1 and stopped until this past weekend, taking a page out of one of the other posters book.  Worked out well.  I will be playing this weekend as well.... thanks for posting Dan 
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#292
Posted: 10/8/2013 4:22:46 PM

I'm glad to see that you guys are at least profitable on this. It didn't start well and this last week saved us. I can't argue with anyone waiting until week 3 or so. Next year I'll probably lay off week 1 since it seems like that is never a winning week.

If I have time I'll take a look and see if we could maybe add some filters to this to make it better for next year.

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#293
Posted: 10/9/2013 6:30:19 AM
Thanks for the info Dan!

I am going to jump in on these last 5 teams remaining. should be a fun little chase!
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#294
Posted: 10/11/2013 10:54:39 AM

Having to go under against Oregon this week has me concerned.

Thanks Dan

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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#295
Posted: 10/11/2013 11:36:01 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by puppetm716:

Having to go under against Oregon this week has me concerned.

Thanks Dan

Agreed. They might cover the over by themselves. Betting the team over for Oregon has been money in the bank this year.

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#296
Posted: 10/11/2013 10:03:09 PM

For Saturday 10/12, 5 teams left

Georgia State (game 3) 62 OVER

Michigan State (game 5) 53.5 UNDER

Washington (game 5) 76.5 UNDER

Georgia Tech (game 5) 53.5 UNDER

Hawaii (game 6) 56 UNDER

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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#297
Posted: 10/13/2013 4:02:17 AM

Saturday results: Went 2-3 with Hawaii being a 6 game system loss. Down to 2 teams, both on game 6 - Michigan State and Georgia Tech.

Georgia State (game 3) 62 OVER WIN

Michigan State (game 5) 53.5 UNDER LOSS (Goes to game 6)

Washington (game 5) 76.5 UNDER WIN

Georgia Tech (game 5) 53.5 UNDER LOSS (goes to game 6)

Hawaii (game 6) 56 UNDER LOSS (Done. System loss)

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