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Author: [College Football] Topic: ncaaf line mistake????
nfl_brosuf
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#26
Posted: 11/3/2012 4:22:56 AM
The way I buy back my wager is to put them in a parlay.  If single bet hits, I'm good.  If single bet loses, at least my parlay gets 1 less of a leg for a giant pay day. 

After careful consideration, I would not fade ul monroe.  Maybe I can middle it with monroe win by 10 points? 

I also looked around and guys be liking the over in the usc game.  Oregon has offense so they are going to put up them points.  If usc must lose, at least hang with the big boys for a pound by pound dog fight to get them points up.  My single bet is on the under at 69, my parlay is at 70.  Middle this one too I hope. 

I hit a 10 teamer last year by a fluke of mistake.  I will try to play the lottery this time again.  Besides, 5 bux buys me a coffee for me and a friend.  If I hit this, I'll buy him coffee for a year. 

Nov 03 07:00 PM
Nov 03 12:21 PM
Nov 03 03:00 PM
Nov 03 01:00 PM
Nov 03 07:00 PM
Nov 03 07:00 PM
Nov 03 07:00 PM
Nov 03 09:30 PM
Nov 03 04:00 PM











PARLAY (10 TEAMS)
TOTAL o58½-110
(AKRON vrs KENT STATE)
TOTAL o66-110
(CLEMSON vrs DUKE)
TOTAL o64-110
(TULSA vrs ARKANSAS)
TOTAL o52-110
(TEXAS STATE vrs UTAH STATE)
TOTAL o61½-110
(WESTERN MICHIGA vrs CENTRAL MICHIGA)
TOTAL o67-110
(OKLAHOMA STATE vrs KANSAS STATE)
TOTAL o52-110
(OKLAHOMA vrs IOWA STATE)
TOTAL o70-110
(OREGON vrs SOUTHERN CALIFO)
TOTAL o49½-110
(SAN DIEGO STATE vrs BOISE STATE)
UL MONROE -9½-110

5 / 3000

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#27
Posted: 11/3/2012 4:30:24 AM
I added the late game of usc for a reason.

Just so I can hedge this turkey and take half pay if it is my last leg left.

I'm not greedy.  I'll take $1,500 guaranteed than losing nothing.  


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#28
Posted: 11/4/2012 4:16:57 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:

My friday play will be on the under 52.5  .  I'm glad I bought it at opener because someone is buying the under to drop that line down to 50.5 at some places right now. 


my sat plays for a quarter unit each because my roll is starting to look sad. 


temple over 50.5  winner
buffalo game over 54.5 lose
marshall game over 66  push
boston college over 51.5  lose
tulsa game over 64.5  lose
miss game over 61.5 lose

usc game under  69  lose
mizzo game under 42  win
utah game under 49 lose

mn +12  lose
illinois +27.5 lose
scruze +4.5  lose
purdue +3.5 lose
ul laf  +10.5  lose
e caro  +4  win
kentucky +7 lose

fighting irish  -16.5 lose

I sure love me some dogs.  Looking for a 60/40 win lose for the week to make a little bit of money. 




5-14 for the week with my bankroll running super dry.   I'm now a fading material.  Perhaps I looked at things all wrong?  I got things backwards. It is suppose to be a 14-5 kind of a week.

Oh well, money gone and nothing I can do about it but to learn from it, add a filter and try for next week.

my parlay was fun though.  Losing out on $5 for a chance at gazillion. 


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#29
Posted: 11/6/2012 4:19:47 PM
I am playing toledo game under 69.5 

too much money on the over which inflated the line since opener by 2 points.  This is ball state's bowl game so they are going to up their defense if they want a chance at upsetting a ranked team.  Good luck with that

Line still -6.5 and unless it hits my magic number of 7 or more, I am not buying ball st.  Although ball st offensively is just like toledo, they are not a ranked team like toledo at #25.  I do not let them ranking numbers to interfere with my eyes when I be capping things.  Toledo can win by a field goal if they want or a TD thus why I want to buy that line at +7 or more. 




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#30
Posted: 11/6/2012 7:42:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:

I am playing toledo game under 69.5 

too much money on the over which inflated the line since opener by 2 points.  This is ball state's bowl game so they are going to up their defense if they want a chance at upsetting a ranked team.  Good luck with that

Line still -6.5 and unless it hits my magic number of 7 or more, I am not buying ball st.  Although ball st offensively is just like toledo, they are not a ranked team like toledo at #25.  I do not let them ranking numbers to interfere with my eyes when I be capping things.  Toledo can win by a field goal if they want or a TD thus why I want to buy that line at +7 or more. 

good stuff!


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#31
Posted: 11/7/2012 3:15:03 AM
dm21 

For tonight's game, bg is running hot with their 5 streaking wins in a row.  Like my uncle have told me, if it isn't broken, ride it till it is broken.  Who got defense in this game?  Look no further than bg as they are stingy when it comes to giving up points plus, if I am not mistaken, they are the best defensive team in the Mac right now.  What this tells me is that this game will favors the under. 

BG top running back missed out last week win but tonight, he is suiting up and will start. 

Are you kidding me that bg is being the underdog here?  If they are fav, I would take them too.  The public will look at ohio 8-1 record and go wow, they must be good but check this out.  Ohio barely beat umass, a crappy team and that shows me that ohio is not a legit team.  They have a weakness and watch as bowling green will expose it to them again tonight. 

My bigger play is to take BG +3 and a small play on the under 49.  This total line is going to drop further so buy them now if you like the under total.  It opens at 49.5 and already losing value because the early money is flowing on the under.  Or maybe wait till the public pounds the over to bring it back up or something funky like that. 

Lets go bg.  I need for them to cash this one for me.  The total is just a bonus for me with a small play. 




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#32
Posted: 11/8/2012 12:49:48 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:

dm21 

For tonight's game, bg is running hot with their 5 streaking wins in a row.  Like my uncle have told me, if it isn't broken, ride it till it is broken.  Who got defense in this game?  Look no further than bg as they are stingy when it comes to giving up points plus, if I am not mistaken, they are the best defensive team in the Mac right now.  What this tells me is that this game will favors the under. 

BG top running back missed out last week win but tonight, he is suiting up and will start. 

Are you kidding me that bg is being the underdog here?  If they are fav, I would take them too.  The public will look at ohio 8-1 record and go wow, they must be good but check this out.  Ohio barely beat umass, a crappy team and that shows me that ohio is not a legit team.  They have a weakness and watch as bowling green will expose it to them again tonight. 

My bigger play is to take BG +3 and a small play on the under 49.  This total line is going to drop further so buy them now if you like the under total.  It opens at 49.5 and already losing value because the early money is flowing on the under.  Or maybe wait till the public pounds the over to bring it back up or something funky like that. 

Lets go bg.  I need for them to cash this one for me.  The total is just a bonus for me with a small play. 






I made money on bg and the under...  yum

I like the fl state here.  Although the spread is a tad high, I think they will cover.  Fl state got defense.  Their defense is even more explosive than what we saw with bowling green from last night.  I'm taking a small bonus play on the over here since fl state and their high explosive offense can easily put up 40 points by themselves alone.  What we need is for virginia tech to get a flukie of 2 TD for the over to cover. 

Did you know that the current starting qb for virginia tech has never played a florida state team?  Also, how poorly he played lately?  We are talking about massive INT and  you are going up against a high defensive team like florida state?  Where you think fl state will get their free points to win this game and perhaps going over from? 

only thing that virginia tech has is that they are playing at home so perhaps them virginia poor stats is only applied when they are away?  hrmmmm  I don't scare and scare money makes no money.  I give ranked #10 respect and take Florida state -13.5

fl st -13.5
over 51

ak state and ul monroe both have just about a neck to neck stats in defense but offense, ul monroe is a tad better.  I'm seeing that them early money been pouring to buy ak state when it was out at -5.5 and now it is as high as -7.  No value to buy ak state at this moment. 

small play on the over 59 in the ak state game just for action
lean ak state -7 but no play. 

come on, you know what to do.  Fade me for money




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#33
Posted: 11/9/2012 4:57:00 AM
fl st no cover  loser
over 51 total at 50 loser

ark state over wins

I'll cap them sat games later tonight. 
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#34
Posted: 11/9/2012 5:18:41 AM
no friday game for me since I have no time to cap.  I am working 12 hours later today and by the time I get off work, the game will already be played. 

I'll shoot for sat games instead. 

to be continue. 
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#35
Posted: 11/10/2012 2:27:08 AM
I lean but not playing any of these...not enough time to fully think things through before pulling some trigger.  just a quick coin flip I did just now. 

sat
northwestern +9.5
mizzo +3.5
miami oh +6.5
oregon st +4.5
new mex +2
west virginia +10
buffalo +3
wash +1.5
wash st +16.5
boston college +19.5

rutger -17

vir game under 54
w kentucky under 49.5
purdue over 48.5


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#36
Posted: 11/10/2012 11:55:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:

I lean but not playing any of these...not enough time to fully think things through before pulling some trigger.  just a quick coin flip I did just now. 

sat
northwestern +9.5   win
mizzo +3.5  win
miami oh +6.5  lose
oregon st +4.5  win
new mex +2  lose
west virginia +10  lose
buffalo +3  win
wash +1.5  pending and looking good
wash st +16.5 pending and looking good
boston college +19.5  win

rutger -17  win

vir game under 54  win
w kentucky under 49.5  lose
purdue over 48.5  win




8-4 with 2 pending (both them washington schools) and is still looking good right now. 

Another positive week in capping had I played it.  Always next time.  Bankroll is in the positive for a few wins on them weekday games and feeling might good. 
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#37
Posted: 11/12/2012 9:56:00 PM
sat
northwestern +9.5   win
mizzo +3.5  win
miami oh +6.5  lose
oregon st +4.5  win
new mex +2  lose
west virginia +10  lose
buffalo +3  win
wash +1.5  win
wash st +16.5 win
boston college +19.5  win

rutger -17  win

vir game under 54  win
w kentucky under 49.5  lose
purdue over 48.5  win

10-4 for the week

not bad at all


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#38
Posted: 11/13/2012 10:26:34 PM
weds

ball state -6  <<-- hot dayam line moved.  Would be nice to buy this one at 3.5 though. 
over 63 

parlay ball state plus over

north illi -10.5 

lets try to get this early money honey
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#39
Posted: 11/13/2012 10:47:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:

weds

ball state -6  <<-- hot dayam line moved.  Would be nice to buy this one at 3.5 though. 
over 63 

parlay ball state plus over

north illi -10.5 

lets try to get this early money honey


my short write up about the north illi game can be found here. 
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101410507&page=28
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#40
Posted: 11/13/2012 11:47:18 PM
I also am playing this parlay right here.  I just can't pull the trigger on the over in the north illi game so I'm buying the ohio over game instead. 

Nov 14 09:00 PM



PARLAY (2 TEAMS)
TOTAL o63-110
(OHIO vrs BALL STATE)
NORTHERN ILLINO -10½-110

80 / 208

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#41
Posted: 11/15/2012 3:44:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:

weds

ball state -6  <<-- hot dayam line moved.  Would be nice to buy this one at 3.5 though.    Win
over 63    Win

parlay ball state plus over   Win YUMMIE

north illi -10.5   Loser

lets try to get this early money honey


NIU disappointed me in the 4th quarter otherwise, it would have been a clean sweep with my parlay as well. 

Oh well, can't win them all. 


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#42
Posted: 11/15/2012 4:10:12 PM
Tonight's match up is between nc and virginia...

nc played 4 games away with a SU record of 1-3 and 0-4 against the spread. 

Virginia is even worst with a sad record of 1-7 with against the spread, no matter if they play home or away.  They are dead last in the league when it comes to covering anything. 

Stats like this, you  just can not trust your money on any sides at all. 

I am not playing sides on this game but I am playing the over 62.  I just like the fact that nc is an over machine this year.  Virginia is not too shabby with the over when they are playing at home either. 

Over 62

Lets get this money for tonight. 
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#43
Posted: 11/16/2012 12:35:54 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:

Tonight's match up is between nc and virginia...

nc played 4 games away with a SU record of 1-3 and 0-4 against the spread. 

Virginia is even worst with a sad record of 1-7 with against the spread, no matter if they play home or away.  They are dead last in the league when it comes to covering anything. 

Stats like this, you  just can not trust your money on any sides at all. 

I am not playing sides on this game but I am playing the over 62.  I just like the fact that nc is an over machine this year.  Virginia is not too shabby with the over when they are playing at home either. 

Over 62  loser

Lets get this money for tonight. 


This game here got the blueprint for the over with virginia screwing all the possible ways for them to score.  Not only that, unc gave up in the 4th quarter with 8 minutes left in the ball game.  That is a whole lot of time for more points but nooooo, they had to quit while ahead by so much points.  I'm just about tired talking about them virginia squad.  Even if you put them inside the 1 yard line, they will choke for you. 

I'll take the loss but I know I was on the right side.  It just that incident like this will jack up your capping for real. 

Friday's game, we got 2 games on the line and these are my plays.

Although both fl atl and fl int are poor performer teams, one of them outshined for me.  fl atl is 8-2 against the spread overall plus I like home field advantage.  I just can not believe that when the line opens, fl atl was dog.  Early money pouring into fl atl but -2 is no problem here.  It still has value to win by a field goal. 

fl atl -2

These two teams are under achievers in college football with both teams averaging about 20 points per game.  I have no idea to where they will get them points coming from.  I am preparing for an ugly and boring game here. 
under 51

In the later game, af is giving 3 TD.  I'm like, Are you serious?  AF in their past 6 games are 1-5 against the spread.  With a stats like this, it is hard to back up a team giving up 3 TD although that AF is a better team than hawaii.  The question is this though.  Will there be a blow out so that af will cover this big spread?  I'm not playing sides on this one for the spread is just a tad too big for my taste.  I understand why they are giving up that big spread though. 

AF rushing offense is solid.  They ranked 2nd in the nation so they are going to run all over hawaii.  With rushing, I am expecting for AF to eat off most of the clock with their focus to rush first and pass later.  With hawaii, they just can not score so no scoring coming from them to jack up my under play here.

I am playing the under 61 in this one. 

Parlay fl atl -2 and af game under 61. 


Lets get this money stupid. 


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#44
Posted: 11/17/2012 5:05:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:



This game here got the blueprint for the over with virginia screwing all the possible ways for them to score.  Not only that, unc gave up in the 4th quarter with 8 minutes left in the ball game.  That is a whole lot of time for more points but nooooo, they had to quit while ahead by so much points.  I'm just about tired talking about them virginia squad.  Even if you put them inside the 1 yard line, they will choke for you. 

I'll take the loss but I know I was on the right side.  It just that incident like this will jack up your capping for real. 

Friday's game, we got 2 games on the line and these are my plays.

Although both fl atl and fl int are poor performer teams, one of them outshined for me.  fl atl is 8-2 against the spread overall plus I like home field advantage.  I just can not believe that when the line opens, fl atl was dog.  Early money pouring into fl atl but -2 is no problem here.  It still has value to win by a field goal. 

fl atl -2

These two teams are under achievers in college football with both teams averaging about 20 points per game.  I have no idea to where they will get them points coming from.  I am preparing for an ugly and boring game here. 
under 51

In the later game, af is giving 3 TD.  I'm like, Are you serious?  AF in their past 6 games are 1-5 against the spread.  With a stats like this, it is hard to back up a team giving up 3 TD although that AF is a better team than hawaii.  The question is this though.  Will there be a blow out so that af will cover this big spread?  I'm not playing sides on this one for the spread is just a tad too big for my taste.  I understand why they are giving up that big spread though. 

AF rushing offense is solid.  They ranked 2nd in the nation so they are going to run all over hawaii.  With rushing, I am expecting for AF to eat off most of the clock with their focus to rush first and pass later.  With hawaii, they just can not score so no scoring coming from them to jack up my under play here.

I am playing the under 61 in this one. 

Parlay fl atl -2 and af game under 61. 


Lets get this money stupid. 




next time, I'll lay low on them cupcake teams.  LOL  hella wack...fau jacked up my  parlay..

I had a better hunch on that af game.  oh well, minimum damage.  Onto the next one for me.

ok -10.5
cruze +6
sjsu +3

idaho under 56.5

I'm ready to collect.  Lets do this. 
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#45
Posted: 11/17/2012 7:00:13 PM
1st half play

iowa state -2.5

utep -2

I smell free money....lets get this... 
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#46
Posted: 11/18/2012 2:49:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:



next time, I'll lay low on them cupcake teams.  LOL  hella wack...fau jacked up my  parlay..

I had a better hunch on that af game.  oh well, minimum damage.  Onto the next one for me.

ok -10.5 lose
cruze +6  win
sjsu +3  win

idaho under 56.5  lose

I'm ready to collect.  Lets do this. 


1st half play

iowa state -2.5  win

utep -2  win

4-2 for ncaaf for the week and it is all about making money. 
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#47
Posted: 11/20/2012 3:27:06 AM
Akron, when they playing away is 4-1 against the spread so +19 akron sounds pretty good but then again, they are 0-5 straight up away. 

Toledo 4-1 at home straight up but are they gonna cover that nasty spread is the question?  Blow out perhaps?  I dunno.  No sides play for me unless the line goes to +21 and I will take akron with a 3 td cushion. 

I like how akron and toledo are both under achievers when it comes to the totals.  Toledo is 3 over and 7 under overall.  Akron is 4 over and 6 under.  The only thing that sux is that both toledo and akron have no freaking defenses whatsoever with akron being the worst of the two.   When you have no defense and given that toledo is a scoring machine, the under will not even be a good play here. 

As long as there is no blow out by toledo, the under should be ok. 

under 64

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#48
Posted: 11/21/2012 5:35:47 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:

Akron, when they playing away is 4-1 against the spread so +19 akron sounds pretty good but then again, they are 0-5 straight up away. 

Toledo 4-1 at home straight up but are they gonna cover that nasty spread is the question?  Blow out perhaps?  I dunno.  No sides play for me unless the line goes to +21 and I will take akron with a 3 td cushion. 

I like how akron and toledo are both under achievers when it comes to the totals.  Toledo is 3 over and 7 under overall.  Akron is 4 over and 6 under.  The only thing that sux is that both toledo and akron have no freaking defenses whatsoever with akron being the worst of the two.   When you have no defense and given that toledo is a scoring machine, the under will not even be a good play here. 

As long as there is no blow out by toledo, the under should be ok. 

under 64



cash this yummie

good start for the week. 

Looks like early money are riding on tcu, given no respect for a ranked team like texas. Hrmmm
Both of these teams here have a hot and cold stats record that mirrors each other in regards to them winning 4-1 at home for texas and 4-1 SU away for tcu.  Even their win lose ATS is the same..hrmmm

even their over and under are about the same with a 50/50 coin toss with the total.

TCU have defense and texas has a better offense. 

With all things equal out, it is better to go with the ranked team who has a home field advantage.  The line is at -7 but it should be at -4 is what I am seeing. 

I need more time on this....  I'll sleep on it tonight. 


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nfl_brosuf
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Location: Vatican City
#49
Posted: 11/22/2012 6:41:10 AM
ncaaf

over 56 is my play

I just love tcu and texas high offenses plus texas allows nearly 30 points per game on defense..

No defense and high offense is the blue print for points. 

so I think..   Let me try to cash this one too.  
quote
nfl_brosuf
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nfl_brosuf
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Joined: Oct 2011
Posts: 2327
Location: Vatican City
#50
Posted: 11/23/2012 1:15:47 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:

ncaaf

over 56 is my play  loser

I just love tcu and texas high offenses plus texas allows nearly 30 points per game on defense..

No defense and high offense is the blue print for points. 

so I think..   Let me try to cash this one too.  


hot dayam, texas game was boring and what a let down. 

for friday

scruze game under 57
marshall game under 72
wv game under 68.5
niu game under 61.5
ball st game under 61.5
az st game under 69

buffalo +9.5
south florida +13.5

It's friday so I'm predicting that it will not be a blowout type of a day.  Everybody will be playing slow from all the turkey that them players be consuming. 




quote
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