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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NCAA Football -6 game chase 3480-1 since 1980
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#251
Posted: 9/14/2013 2:12:41 AM

Off to a good start, 2-1 on the 3 games so far. Big day Saturday.

Thursday

  • Louisiana Tech (gm 2) - 58.5  Loss
  • Arkansas St (gm 2) - 65.5 WIN

Friday - Boise St (gm 2) 57.5 WIN

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#252
Posted: 9/14/2013 7:05:59 PM
Buying a half point is a good idea.  Bc/USC for example
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#253
Posted: 9/17/2013 11:22:10 PM

Week 3, was not a good one. 13 teams eliminated and after 3 weeks we have 81 teams eliminated, 44 to go. 10 teams are on game 2, 29 teams on game 3, 5 teams go to game 4 and we switch to betting UNDER on these 5. I'll list the teams in the next post. 

Thursday

  • Louisiana Tech (gm 2) - 58.5  LOSS
  • Arkansas St (gm 2) - 65.5 WIN

Friday - Boise St (gm 2) 57.5 WIN

Saturday

  • Army (2)/Stanford (2) - 52  WIN
  • Georgia St (1)/ W. Virginia (2) - 57  LOSS
  • Louisville (2) - 59.5  LOSS
  • Marshall (2) / Ohio (3) - 69  LOSS
  • Akron (2) - 56.5  LOSS
  • Virginia Tech (2) / East Carolina (2) - 51  LOSS
  • Conneticut (1) - 47.5  WIN
  • La. Monroe (2) / Wake Forest (2) - 52.5  LOSS
  • Georgia Tech (1) / Duke (2) - 56.5  LOSS
  • Boston College (2) / USC (3) - 42.5  LOSS
  • Iowa State (1) - 48.5  LOSS
  • Alabama (2) - 61  WIN
  • Idaho (3) - 62.5  WIN
  • Miss. St (2) / Auburn (3) - 51  LOSS
  • Washington (2) - 63  LOSS
  • Central Florida (3) - 50.5  WIN
  • Ball State (2) / North Texas (3) - 63  LOSS
  • Memphis (2) / Mid Tenn St (2) - 52.5  LOSS
  • Arkansas (2) - 49.5  LOSS
  • Oklahoma (3) - 51  WIN
  • Massachusets (2) - 54.5 LOSS
  • Florida Atlantic (3) / South Florida (2) - 43.5  LOSS
  • Kansas (1) - 58  LOSS
  • Purdue (2) - 50  WIN
  • W. Michigan (2) - 59.5  LOSS
  • Oregon St. (2) - 58  WIN
  • Wisconsin (2) / AZ State (1) - 52.5 WIN
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#254
Posted: 9/19/2013 4:03:21 PM

Start of week 4

Thursday - NC State (game 2) Over 65 (Cantor line)

No games for Friday. Still getting lines together for Saturday, will post when completed.

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#255
Posted: 9/20/2013 4:07:35 PM

9 teams do not play or qualify for this week: S. Florida, Miami FL, Temple, Washington, Georgia State, Iowa State, East Carolina, Boston College, Ohio. 35 teams in action this week including the Thursday game.

Thursday - NC State (game 2) Over 65 Loss

Saturday

  • North Carolina (3) / Georgia Tech (2) - 58.5
  • La. Tech (3) / Kansas (2) - 50
  • Houston (2) - 64.5
  • San Diego St (2) - 53
  • Missouri (2) - 71.5
  • San Jose St. (2) - 50.5
  • Texas State (2) - 58.5
  • Louisville (3) - 42.5
  • Marshall (3) / Va Tech (3) - 50.5
  • Akron (3) - 65
  • West Virginia (3) - 52.5
  • Arkansas (3) - 44
  • La-Monroe (3) - 75
  • Wake Forest (3) - 48.5
  • Duke (3) - 50.5
  • Ball St. (3) - 57
  • W. Michigan (3) - 47
  • Miss St (3) - 60
  • Memphis (3) - 52
  • Massachusets (3) - 53
  • Florida (3) - 46
  • Miami OH (3) - 53.5
  • Michigan State (3) - 41.5
  • Toledo (3) - 57.5
  • Hawaii (3) - 56.5
  • Washington St (3) - 59

The following teams are on game 4 so we bet the UNDER

  • USC - 51
  • North Texas - 67.5
  • Auburn - 56

Middle Tennessee is on game 3 and Florida Atlantic on game 4. Since one calls for the over and the other the under you can either skip this game and move forward with the one team that moves on or bet the difference of your individual bets between game 3 and 4 and bet the under.

Mid Tenn (3) / Florida Atlantic (4) - 48.5 

 

 

 

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#256
Posted: 9/22/2013 2:13:41 AM

We started this week with 44 teams. 9 teams did not play or qualify for this week, 35 teams in action. 14 wins, 19 losses and 2 pushes. We treat the pushes as a no game so those teams stay on the same game number next time. 30 teams left.

Thursday - NC State (game 2) Over 65 Loss

Saturday

  • North Carolina (3) / Georgia Tech (2) - 58.5 Loss
  • La. Tech (3) / Kansas (2) - 50 Loss
  • Houston (2) - 64.5 Loss
  • San Diego St (2) - 53 Win
  • Missouri (2) - 71.5 Win
  • San Jose St. (2) - 50.5  Win
  • Texas State (2) - 58.5 Loss
  • Louisville (3) - 42.5 Win
  • Marshall (3) / Va Tech (3) - 50.5 Loss
  • Akron (3) - 65 Loss
  • West Virginia (3) - 52.5 Loss
  • Arkansas (3) - 44 Win
  • La-Monroe (3) - 75 Win
  • Wake Forest (3) - 48.5 Loss
  • Duke (3) - 50.5 Win
  • Ball St. (3) - 57 Win
  • W. Michigan (3) - 47 Win
  • Miss St (3) - 60 Win
  • Memphis (3) - 52 Loss
  • Massachusets (3) - 53 Loss
  • Florida (3) - 46 Win
  • Miami OH (3) - 53.5 Loss
  • Michigan State (3) - 41.5 Loss
  • Toledo (3) - 57.5 Loss
  • Hawaii (3) - 56.5 Loss
  • Washington St (3) - 59 Loss

The following teams are on game 4 so we bet the UNDER

  • USC - 51 Win
  • North Texas - 67.5 Win
  • Auburn - 56 Push

Middle Tennessee is on game 3 and Florida Atlantic on game 4. Since one calls for the over and the other the under you can either skip this game and move forward with the one team that moves on or bet the difference of your individual bets between game 3 and 4 and bet the under.

Mid Tenn (3) / Florida Atlantic (4) - 48.5 OVER Win on Mid Tenn, loss on Fla Atl

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#257
Posted: 9/22/2013 2:47:20 AM

Here are the teams that are left, what game they are on and date of next qualifying game. Note that we have E. Car (game 3) playing N. Carolina (game 4) and Georgia Tech (game 3) playing Va tech (game 4). Last year at this time we only had 11 teams left. This year has sucked so far.

Game 2

  • Iowa State 9/26
  • Georgia State 10/5

Game 3

  • Georgia Tech 9/26 (opponent on game 4)
  • Akron 9/28
  • Houston 9/28
  • South Florida / Miami FL (both on 3) 9/28
  • Temple 9/28
  • Washington 9/28
  • NC State 9/28
  • Texas State 9/28
  • East Carolina (opponent on game 4) 9/28
  • Boston College 9/28
  • Kansas 10/5

Game 4 (Bet Under)

  • Virginia Tech 9/26 (opponent on game 3)
  • Washington State 9/28
  • Miami OH 9/28
  • W. Virginia 9/28
  • La Tech 9/28
  • Wake Forest 9/28
  • Toledo 9/28
  • N. Carolina 9/28 (opponent on game 3)
  • Hawaii 9/29 (Sunday game)
  • Auburn 10/5
  • Ohio 10/5
  • Memphis 10/5
  • Michigan State 10/5
  • Marshall 10/5
  • U Mass 10/5

Game 5

  • Florida Atlantic 9/28

 

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#258
Posted: 9/26/2013 10:15:42 AM

Dan,

Have you ever looked into doing 2 Team Round Robins for teams late in the chase?   There are probably too many on Game 4 to do it, but those this week that go to Game 5 next week might be something to consider. 

I only have 6 teams this week on Game 4 solo (not with a team on Game 3).   I could do a round robin for those 6 teams at about 1/2 of what I would normally to wager to capture the 1 unit per team.  However, my potential win is far greater. 

Just something to think about...or maybe I'm way off line here??

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#259
Posted: 9/26/2013 11:37:42 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by breezeyo:

Dan,

Have you ever looked into doing 2 Team Round Robins for teams late in the chase?   There are probably too many on Game 4 to do it, but those this week that go to Game 5 next week might be something to consider. 

I only have 6 teams this week on Game 4 solo (not with a team on Game 3).   I could do a round robin for those 6 teams at about 1/2 of what I would normally to wager to capture the 1 unit per team.  However, my potential win is far greater. 

Just something to think about...or maybe I'm way off line here??

I have never considered that, mostly because I've never bet a round robin. With the way the win % is going I don't like it, but who knows you could win them all.

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#260
Posted: 9/26/2013 11:46:58 AM

Start of week 5 - 30 teams to go, 8 do not play or qualify this week so we have 22 teams in action.

Thursday

  • Iowa State (game 2) - 54.5
  • Virginia Tech (Gm 4 Under) / Georgia Tech (Gm 3 Over) - 43.5

 

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#261
Posted: 9/27/2013 4:19:55 PM

The rest of the plays for this week. Note on the E. Caolina/N. Carolina game. Since we need E. Car to go over I got 60.5 at the Rio and N. Carolina to go under I got 62 at William Hill.

Thursday

  • Iowa State (game 2) - 54.5 WIN
  • Virginia Tech (Gm 4 Under) / Georgia Tech (Gm 3 Over) - 43.5 - WIN on Va Tech, loss on GA Tech

Saturday

  • Akron (3) - 55
  • Houston (3) - 64
  • Miami Fl (3) / S. Florida (3) - 47.5
  • Temple (3) - 56
  • Washington (3) - 62
  • NC State (3) - 52
  • Texas State (3) - 55.5
  • Boston College (3) - 53
  • East Carolina  (3) / North Carolina (4) - 60.5/62
  • Wash State (4) - 48
  • Miami OH (4) - 50.5
  • W. Virginia (4) - 58
  • La Tech (4) - 52.5
  • Wake Forest (4) - 59
  • Toledo (4)- 67
  • Fla Atlantic (5) - 53.5

Sunday

  • Hawaii (4)- 59
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#262
Posted: 9/27/2013 4:52:43 PM
Dan, 

How are you able to be at William hill and in Nevada?   Just curious.  
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#263
Posted: 9/27/2013 4:59:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by breezeyo:

Dan, 

How are you able to be at William hill and in Nevada?   Just curious.  

There are William Hill places here in Vegas. I have an account and they have kiosks at a few bars near my house. Also have online accounts at the Palms (Cantor lines) and Station casinos. Always good to line shop if you can.

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#264
Posted: 9/27/2013 5:50:05 PM
Definitely.  I just wasn't aware you could do William hill here in the states.  Line shopping has allowed me to get down to 25 teams left, 23 after last nights games.  
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#265
Posted: 9/29/2013 1:32:51 AM

Through Saturday with one game to go Sunday we have 13 wins and 8 losses - 17 teams left.

Thursday

  • Iowa State (game 2) - 54.5 WIN
  • Virginia Tech (Gm 4 Under) / Georgia Tech (Gm 3 Over) - 43.5 - WIN on Va Tech, loss on GA Tech

Saturday

  • Akron (3) - 55 Loss
  • Houston (3) - 64 Win
  • Miami Fl (3) / S. Florida (3) - 47.5 Win
  • Temple (3) - 56 Loss
  • Washington  (3) - 62 Loss
  • NC State (3) - 52 Win
  • Texas State (3) - 55.5  Win
  • Boston College (3) - 53 Win
  • East Carolina (3) / North Carolina (4) - 60.5/62  WIN/LOSS
  • Wash State (4) - 48 Loss
  • Miami OH (4) - 50.5 Loss
  • W. Virginia (4) - 58 Win
  • La Tech (4) - 52.5 Win
  • Wake Forest (4) - 59 Loss
  • Toledo (4)- 67 Win
  • Fla Atlantic (5) - 53.5 Win

Sunday

  • Hawaii (4)- 59
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#266
Posted: 9/29/2013 11:46:09 PM

End of week 5 - We had 13 wins and 9 losses - 17 teams left.

Thursday

  • Iowa State (game 2) - 54.5 WIN
  • Virginia Tech (Gm 4 Under) / Georgia Tech (Gm 3 Over) - 43.5 - WIN on Va Tech, loss on GA Tech

Saturday

  • Akron (3) - 55 Loss
  • Houston (3) - 64 Win
  • Miami Fl (3) / S. Florida (3) - 47.5 Win
  • Temple (3) - 56 Loss
  • Washington (3) - 62 Loss
  • NC State (3) - 52 Win
  • Texas State (3) - 55.5 Win
  • Boston College (3) - 53 Win
  • East Carolina (3) / North Carolina (4) - 60.5/62 WIN/LOSS
  • Wash State (4) - 48 Loss
  • Miami OH (4) - 50.5 Loss
  • W. Virginia (4) - 58 Win
  • La Tech (4) - 52.5 Win
  • Wake Forest (4) - 59 Loss
  • Toledo (4)- 67 Win
  • Fla Atlantic (5) - 53.5 Win

Sunday

  • Hawaii (4)- 59 Loss
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#267
Posted: 9/30/2013 10:21:23 AM

Dan,

Luckily, I only have 12 teams left.  I matched up the 5 differences between us and 3 were due to line differences.   1 team was bet on early in the week before the line moved.  And 1 was a mistake on my part which worked out in my favor.  (I bet the under when I was supposed to bet Over).    

However, 5 teams on Game 5 is nerve wracking.  LOL  

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#268
Posted: 9/30/2013 11:22:23 AM
As a follow up, I am down 8.4 units right now with 12 teams left. 
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#269
Posted: 10/1/2013 12:33:22 AM
Did this system start with UNDER UNDER UNDER OVER OVER OVER?  Maybe i am wrong but it seems like you guys changed this up from what Neilsy25 started with?  Please explain.  Maybe it was over 3 times then under 3 times,  Very interested if you could explain to me thanks
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#270
Posted: 10/1/2013 4:06:33 AM
I saw that too. Originally it was no team has gone OOOUUU, and if you're using that premise you're doing much better this year so far. 
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#271
Posted: 10/1/2013 11:44:10 AM
I'm using the OOOUUU formula per the original system. Betting no team is going to go UUUOOO. 
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#272
Posted: 10/1/2013 6:39:44 PM
I was thinking about this system and i thinking when you start out the season.  That you should take the line as soon as it comes out or close to it, since people tend to bet up lines in cfb and a lot of sports including the NFL.  And when you start betting the unders i would wait till closer to kick off to grab the line, same thing everyone likes to bet overs and like to see teams score then a low scoring game.  Just my thoughts.  Plus i was wondering since the Nhl starts tonight wonder how well this system to work for that?  Has anyone looked or tried backtesting?  IF so i would love to see, I will try and backtest that.  Not sure if i can but will give it my best.  But please anyone feel free to comment on some of the question that i have, and hopefully i will be able to help like wise!!!
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#273
Posted: 10/3/2013 12:12:53 AM
Danrules how are you backtesting all these games, i tried using sportdatabase and just dont see how you can look that far back and test results?  IF you have another site you are using could you please post it since obviously i am not getting it to.  On one site i only could go back 20 games and that doesn't go back far enough for me to conclude.  Hopefully you can guide me in the right direction.  Or someone if they could help i would be very thankful
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#274
Posted: 10/3/2013 12:31:55 AM

Gator, this isn't my system, so I cannot answer to the previous record claims. I came across this thread and decided to test it last year on here. Worked pretty good with only 1 team losing but I would have stopped my personal chase long before that. This year has not worked out that way unfortunately.

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#275
Posted: 10/3/2013 3:19:30 PM
Ok thanks Dan, are you just using covers to back test or sportsdatabase?

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