Posted: 2/2/2009 10:30:33 PM
I added another line to Calin's prototype spreadsheet that also factors the juice. For me this works as an additional filter. I calculate the required break-even percentage required for the particular juice. Then I calculate calculate the relative value of the bet.........I am new to sports betting so I may not have the proper vocabulary......here goes....
Per the Poisson ratio, the STL/DET game had a 59.7% probability of going OVER 5. The line was 5.5 with -135 moneyline (ML)
When laying odds (i.e. -105,-110,-120,-135, etc...), the formula for calculating the break even percentage (BE%)is [-(ML)+100]/100 ===>
BE% = [-(-135)+100]/100 = 57.4%
(i.e. you have to win 57.4% of the time to beak even when laying -135)
When getting odd (i.e. +110,+155,+125,Even or 100), the formula for calculating the break even required is 100/(ML+10)
To calculate the relative value of a bet, I use the following formula:
Value = [(probability of winning) - (BE%)] / [100-(BE%)]
Value = (59.7-57.4) / (100-57.4) = 0.053 or 5.3%
Now, the question is...... was this a good bet?