Baylor at Kansas State (10/12/2013)

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Author: [College Football] Topic: Baylor at Kansas State (10/12/2013)
mgmprofits PM mgmprofits
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Posted: 10/12/2013 3:11:39 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lordzud:

K State has one of the best coaches in the nation who does a great job of recruiting junior college transfers. That is why his program has fallen so far so fast from last year. The turnover in players happens twice as fast in this system as in players recruited for five years (one year redshirted typically) Vegas doesn't care about where the line should be, they just want 50% on each side of the bet. People see the name Kansas ST and they think ooooooh! good team! Well they aren't this year and Baylor should roll. Stevopa has a great point about the over hitting as well. Normally I would wait till my book 5 dimes reduces it's odds to 5% and take the Baylor ML if it is below the key number 21, but I don't get reduced odds on parlays so why wait. A Baylor over 72 and Baylor-17 for a medium play. 

With all due respect, that is total bs. Vegas doesn't want 50/50 on each side. They are too money hungry. They want 90% on the wrong side. Also if that were true, why would the line be going down from 20 to 18, when most of the public is on Baylor already? 

Something is very fishy here.
mr_bollox PM mr_bollox
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Posted: 10/12/2013 10:20:20 AM
wouldnt rule out a K state cover but baylor 1h looks golden
Kurupt_75 PM Kurupt_75
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Posted: 10/12/2013 10:20:31 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mgmprofits:


With all due respect, that is total bs. Vegas doesn't want 50/50 on each side. They are too money hungry. They want 90% on the wrong side. Also if that were true, why would the line be going down from 20 to 18, when most of the public is on Baylor already? 

Something is very fishy here.


90% on the wrong side??? What does that even mean...

If ANY book is so lopsided on one side, on ANY wager their sweatin bullets! Your assertion is correct in theory, but theory means bump in sports wagering. No book, no oddsmaker, no methodology, can predict the outcome of games, it's about leverage and spreading out risk.

Talk to an bookmaker worth their weight, and they'll telll you even action, is ideal, weighted action on a socalled "wrong side" is gravy, not ideal...
Staplehead77 PM Staplehead77
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Posted: 10/12/2013 11:41:15 AM
Vegas wants 90% on one side? LOL classic. 

Anyway, in reality here, Baylor is the play.  They have showed no signs of letting up.  The line is set based on the fact that Baylor's D can let some points up, however, their offense is on pace to crush the record book.  Until some one stops them, like ATL said, I see no reason to bet against them.

My local has Baylor at -17.5.  O/U 74.5...Baylor is bound to put up at least 56, and I can see K State managing 24-28. 

Baylor and the Over for me.  GL to all.
yes_ima_noob PM yes_ima_noob
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Posted: 10/12/2013 3:07:00 PM
After watching Baylor the last few weeks I am totally convinced that Baylor is the BEST 1H football team in the world. They come out with bad and embarrassing intentions and I believe that their offense is for real. Screw the National Championship the BCS and all other bowl games the only one I want to see is Baylor v. Oregon...lights out!

Now for this game, I will bet Baylor on the first half. My book has them at -10. Baylor, you had me at hello!
mtgmoney PM mtgmoney
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Posted: 10/12/2013 6:11:57 PM
wow...public got sucker punched today...

baylor 

okla 

clemson 

uuummm upset weekend !!!!!!!!!!!!

mgmprofits PM mgmprofits
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Posted: 10/12/2013 6:14:04 PM
A lot of the games are rigged, so of course they know about these. And yes, they would love to have as many people on the wrong side as possible. The proof is that every week there are games with 70/30 and the line stays the same. And usually the side with 70 percent is the side that loses. This is no coincidence.....Also, If they wanted 50/50 they would move the line accordingly in these situations. The proof is right in front of your faces, but everyone is too blind to see it. 

Just watch the games closely as well, if you don't think they are rigged. It's more than obvious when they fumble balls on purpose and things of that  nature. It's a big business. Also you wonder why many times the game comes right down to the spread? I believe that is because they want some games to be a coinflip.  So there is an element of randomness to it as well.

Last I checked Baylor was losing this one outright. Current score K State- 25  Baylor- 21, K state winning outright. And you still don't think this is rigged? LOL if it wasn't rigged, Baylor would be blowing every team out, every week. Especially weak teams like this. But now that the public has caught on to Baylor, they are having a letdown. Go figure, this happens all the time and I saw this one coming today. 

Bottom line is this- If it seems to good to be true, it probably is.
yes_ima_noob PM yes_ima_noob
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Posted: 10/13/2013 9:00:54 AM
Baylor covered 1H -10, now as good as a 1H team as they are they haven't learned to be a great 2H team. Look back at all their games. They take their foot off the gas in the 2H. Going into this game their best running back had 2 second half carries the whole season. Anyone that can challenge them in the second half will cover the spread. As a matter of fact the best bets with Baylor is to bet them 1H and then wait for halftime to bet against them for the 2H.
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