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Author: [Soccer] Topic: Euro 2012....
Wake2002 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
Wake2002
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#1601
Posted: 7/1/2012 8:09:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lbcake:


Dangerous? OK.

Now, show me your math.

I might be wrong, I probably should have just not said anything, main purpose of my post was to thank Van for all his work in this thread, I just am a little OCD when it comes to probability/statistics.  I may even have misintepreted, definitely not looking to argue on it.  Since you asked though, my math was:

1 Unit at +1400 on Italy (1 to win 14)

 9.54 Units on Spain at -175  ( 9.54 to win 5.45)

If Italy wins, you win 14, but lose 9.54 - net +4.46

If Spain wins, you lose 1, but win 5.45 - net +4.45

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Wake2002 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#1602
Posted: 7/1/2012 8:12:20 PM

And, I only meant dangerous, because making a small mistake on the math can be pretty dangerous, from my own experience.  I've done it too many times myself, and cost myself dearly for it

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benhogan76
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#1603
Posted: 7/1/2012 8:20:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by moslo35:

Maybe u should have watched the games 3 more times and u would have hedged with Spain. Oh well all that blah blah blah posts can still be put to good use...print and use for toilet paper. Enjoy sir.
       Sincerely ,
       Lunatic
Eat a person.
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yojuegofifa send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1604
Posted: 7/1/2012 8:59:17 PM
VanZack 0 Spain 99..

Spain did you bro.
I never followed when you went against Spain.

Is easy bro.

Spain is the best team of the world by far.
Every team just plays defense against Spain. 
Spain scored first and football did us football fans a favor. 

Nothing else to say.

Paraguay and Italy are the same shi>>>>>>
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lbcake send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#1605
Posted: 7/2/2012 1:55:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Wake2002:

I might be wrong, I probably should have just not said anything, main purpose of my post was to thank Van for all his work in this thread, I just am a little OCD when it comes to probability/statistics.  I may even have misintepreted, definitely not looking to argue on it.  Since you asked though, my math was:

1 Unit at +1400 on Italy (1 to win 14)

 9.54 Units on Spain at -175  ( 9.54 to win 5.45)

If Italy wins, you win 14, but lose 9.54 - net +4.46

If Spain wins, you lose 1, but win 5.45 - net +4.45


You are just trying to equalise your return(same profit whatever the outcome). I'm calculating what the original wager is worth at the time of the hedge(using the -175 line). That amount is 2.96. If you want more out of a Spain victory - that is one's choice. I'm leaving more value on an Italian victory, which was the intended purpose of the original wager. A hedge is to minimise risk(2.96), not wipe it out completely.
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#1606
Posted: 7/2/2012 9:10:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lbcake:


You are just trying to equalise your return(same profit whatever the outcome). I'm calculating what the original wager is worth at the time of the hedge(using the -175 line). That amount is 2.96. If you want more out of a Spain victory - that is one's choice. I'm leaving more value on an Italian victory, which was the intended purpose of the original wager. A hedge is to minimise risk(2.96), not wipe it out completely.

I think the error in your calculation was using 73.6% and 26.4% when translating the -175 money line.  Should have been 63.6% and 36.4%, I think.  If you used those percentages, the same calculation you presented would have calculated a worth of the original wager of 4.46 (i.e., the value of a "perfect hedge" in that situation.)

The rest of your post may have looked to do more than wipe out risk entirely, (I wasn't thinking about that angle, I usually like to wipe out risk as much as I can when I do arbs) but I still think your initial calculation was incorrect

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#1607
Posted: 7/2/2012 9:28:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lbcake:

If you got Italy at 14/1 ...

Spain to win the Euro is currently -175 (or 63.6%) at Pinny.

You've risked 1 to win 14 with a current prob. of 26.4% to win the wager. Therefore, current EV of the wager is:

(14 x 26.4%) - (1 X 73.6%) = 3.70 - 0.74 = 3.06

Theoretically you have won 2.96.

Max. win from this pt. is 14 - 2.96 = 11.04
Max loss from this pt is -1 - 2.96 = -3.96

Right now your initial wager is equal to a wager of 3.96 to win 11.04, with 2.96 in your theoretical acct.

Perfect hedge is a wager of 11.04 to win 3.96 that Italy does not win the Euro. 

Personal preference will rule on any hedge. 

To win a min. of 3.96 with a -175 line you must wager ~7.




Nice catch. Brain cramp - no idea why I used 73.6 when I had 63.6 to begin with.

I apologise. My calculations fit for a -183 line.  

Thanks Wake. 

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#1608
Posted: 7/2/2012 9:32:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lbcake:



Nice catch. Brain cramp - no idea why I used 73.6 when I had 63.6 to begin with.

I apologise. My calculations fit for a -300ish line.  

Thanks Wake. 


Time for bed.
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HolidayInTheSun send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1609
Posted: 7/3/2012 4:20:52 AM
Results:
15 - 11.5 - 3 WLP
+4.62 units

1. Greece +.5 at +112 1 unit - WIN
2. Russia to win at +128 for 3 units - WIN
3. Dutch -170 for 2 units - LOSS
4. Germany -.5 -105 for 1 unit - WIN
5. Germany under 2.5 -107 for 1 unit - WIN
6. Italy +.5 and +1 -105 for 2.5 units - WIN
7. Croatia -.5 +120 for 1.5 units - WIN
8. France PK -120 5 units - PUSH
9. Swe/Ukr over 2 -126 3 units - WIN
10. Russia +142 3 units - LOSS
11. Czech PK and -.5 +108 1.5 units - WIN
12. Portugal -.5 +102 for 2 units - WIN
13. Italy Pk and -.5 for 4 units - HALF LOSS
14. Spain -1.5 -110 for 2 units - WIN
15. Ukr/Fra over 2 -120 3 units - PUSH
16. Sweden +.5 -130 1 unit - LOSS
17. Rus/Gre - No bet
18. Pol/Cze - No bet
19. Ger/Den over 2.5 -115 for 2 units - WIN
20. Portugal PK +103 4 units - WIN
21. Spain -140 for 2 units - WIN
22. Ireland +1.5 -115 1 unit - LOSS
23.France -150 for 2.5 units - LOSS
24Under 2.5 -115 for 2 units.WIN
25 Czech +.5 +115 1 unit.LOSS
26  Greece / Germany under 2.5 -110 2 units.LOSS
27France +.5 +115 in 90 mins for 3 units.LOSS
28 Italy big tomorrow - 4 units in regulation time at a PK,  PUSH
29 and 2 units to advance.  WIN
30
Spain in 90 -100 for 2 unitsLOSS
31 Germany -.5 -105 to win in 90 for 2 units.LOSS
32 Italy to lift the cup at +145 for 3 units..LOSS

Futures:

Italy to win the tournament +1425. 2 unitsLOSS
England to come in last in group D anywhere from +500 to +600. 3 unitsLOSS
England not to win the group at -210. 2 unitsLOSS
England to go under 5.5 points in the group anywhere from PK to -150. 3 unitsLOSS
Ukraine to advance from group D +145. 2 unitsLOSS
Russia to win group A +170. 3 units LOSS

Republic of Ireland to finish last in Group C -125. 3 units. win
Denmark to finish last in group B -167. 2 units.LOSS

Results:
1 - 7 WL-18.29 units


Final Record
16- 18.5 - 3 WLP -13.67 units
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TexanGambler
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#1610
Posted: 7/3/2012 12:41:47 PM

ODDS TO WIN UEFA EUROPEAN CHAMPION
1 SPAIN 2.5-1 ...100.00 ...winner
2 FRANCE 10-1 ...50.00 ...out
3 GERMANY 3-1 ...20.00 ...out
4 NETHERLANDS 6.5-1 ...10.00 ...out

SPAIN -0.5 +110 ...100.00 ...won
UNDER 2 -130 ...10.00 ...loss
SPAIN +115 ...200.00 ...won
DRAW +215 ...20.00 ...loss

WAGERED
-430.00
RETURNED
+990.00
RESULTS
2 wins - 2 losses - plus 560.00
FINAL TOURNAMENT
45 wins - 70 losses - plus 821.65

Vanzack, see you in the 2014 World Cup in Brazil


 

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#1611
Posted: 7/3/2012 7:30:21 PM
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#1612
Posted: 7/23/2012 3:14:36 PM
gonna do any capping for the olympics?
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