Do you find any of these NFL Stats useful?

Forum: NFL Betting
Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Do you find any of these NFL Stats useful?
Niners13 PM Niners13
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Posted: 1/8/2012 12:08:03 PM
I'm always for having more data available. Even though I would never bet anything blindly but every little info helps in the final decision. IMO.

http://www.statsprofessor.blogspot.com/p/stats.html

Saw this a few weeks ago and found some of the info interesting since the season is over with and has a decent sample.

You may not care for any of it but I still find it fun to look at.
Numbers look rather legit.

GL with your plays today. 

Can't wait for Niners/Saints next week.

Niners13 PM Niners13
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Posted: 1/11/2012 10:47:48 PM
I guess no one does.
Probably explains all the losing bets.


How often the spread matters and Public Road Dogs I find interesting.
Really curious how the Packers game turns out.
Skipster PM Skipster
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Posted: 1/11/2012 11:18:26 PM
thanks for posting.  the line move stat was most interesting to me.
Trav2282 PM Trav2282
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Posted: 1/12/2012 12:10:27 AM


Trav2282 PM Trav2282
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Posted: 1/12/2012 12:12:03 AM
Thanks! interesting info
Niners13 PM Niners13
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Posted: 1/12/2012 5:57:55 PM
You're Welcome.

Lot of threads on here looking for different stats, Decent summary of a few we always discuss.

 
Werker PM Werker
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Posted: 1/12/2012 7:36:18 PM
Definitely interesting info. Something I looked at that I find relevant is that while spreads mattered in 54 of 256 games, they mattered in 49 of 199 games where the spread was 3 or more. I think it's somewhat misleading to give it a 21.1% rate of relevancy when, in 57 games, the spread was 2.5 or less, which just makes it much more unlikely to matter. I think the 24.6% rate of relevancy is more, well, relevant. That rate goes up to 35.6% for spreads of 7 or more.
Henley PM Henley
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Posted: 1/12/2012 8:01:36 PM
Cool stats.  ONe question about the first graph.  How do they know what money comes from sharps and what money comes from the public?
bill702 PM bill702
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Posted: 1/12/2012 8:10:28 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Henley:

Cool stats.  ONe question about the first graph.  How do they know what money comes from sharps and what money comes from the public?

It says it uses pinnacle sport and everything above 60% is a public play

MrBogey PM MrBogey
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Posted: 1/12/2012 9:30:13 PM
no wonder it was such a great year for  6-7 point teasers, 7pt  fav or more 84%
Niners13 PM Niners13
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Posted: 1/13/2012 5:56:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MrBogey:

no wonder it was such a great year for  6-7 point teasers, 7pt  fav or more 84%


Yeah, no wonder books keep trying to move to -9 and so on. 
Teasers have been doing very well.

I think this weekend should be the same.
Niners13 PM Niners13
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Posted: 1/14/2012 2:27:47 PM
niners/saints and giants/packers are the interesting games.

Curious how the giants as a public road dog play out....


Niners back to -3 juiced at some places now...
Skipster PM Skipster
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Posted: 1/14/2012 10:40:00 PM
Skipbone PM Skipbone
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Posted: 1/14/2012 10:49:34 PM
I use my 3,000th post to say: 
Niners13 PM Niners13
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Posted: 1/16/2012 12:21:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Skipbone:

I use my 3,000th post to say: 


Maybe to you.

Line moves hit well again.

Spreads only mattered in 1 of 8 games while everyone makes a big deal out of them each week.

Once something has a decent sample, the numbers are rather meaningful but that's my opinion.


ChOdaZ PM ChOdaZ
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Posted: 1/16/2012 3:33:49 PM
what exactly does "how often does a line move matter" does that mean the the team the the line moved favored, covered?
mrquija27 PM mrquija27
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Posted: 1/16/2012 3:40:51 PM

I have heard the theory of spreads dont matter often.  But lets think this out please.  We always here a number around 20%  Ok well please just answer this question.

When the favorite wins the game isnt it a 100% clip to where the spread doesnt matter?  Please answer, serious question.

mrquija27 PM mrquija27
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Posted: 1/16/2012 3:45:46 PM
Ok I think I am wrong, but please answer.
bigkaptain PM bigkaptain
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Posted: 1/16/2012 4:10:15 PM
giants ravens superbowl
Niners13 PM Niners13
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Posted: 1/21/2012 6:11:16 PM
Line is down to -1 at the greek

Not good for the Niners....
MJ2345 PM MJ2345
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Posted: 1/21/2012 6:48:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Niners13:

Line is down to -1 at the greek

Not good for the Niners....


Thats the only one under -2 but let the public keep pounding the Giants!
thawv PM thawv
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Posted: 1/21/2012 7:09:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mrquija27:

I have heard the theory of spreads dont matter often.  But lets think this out please.  We always here a number around 20%  Ok well please just answer this question.

When the favorite wins the game isnt it a 100% clip to where the spread doesnt matter?  Please answer, serious question.



Bottom line is, the winner of each game covers 79% of the time.  That goes for the outright dog win, and a favorite win.
Niners13 PM Niners13
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Posted: 1/26/2012 12:35:41 PM
Another line move hits.  Will it continue in the super bowl?

Big money needed in the playoffs to move these.

Should be interesting, I like the Pats to win.....for now.
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