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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Tremendous Value With Cardinals +160 Today
DanTos8715 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#26
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:37:01 PM
Its a bit confusing comparing lines from the past. Different matchups, injuries, and situations (on the road, 1 game playoffs) factor into a line. I agree its inflated, but I wasnt expecting a +125 either. More in the +135 - +140 range. I might bite on Cards -1 or a Cards/over 6.5 parlay. If the Cards win, I dont see this game staying below 7.
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#27
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:51:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ILPRATO:

From a value standpoint you make sense regardless of todays outcome.Betting heavy chalk in games like this is an easy way to destroy a bankroll.

Good luck



Absolutely correct.

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#28
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:52:01 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by slick15:

Never any VALUE in a loser

This is the thinking of someone who goes broke, sir.

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#29
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:54:24 PM
What up Tone? Tough game IMO. Hard for me to lay chalk, but at the same time it's not easy goon against Medlen either. Good luck to you either way.

I am curious what you think about the O's. I think a lot of people are expecting Texas to just take care of business. I see a Texas team that is reeling, and lacks confidence. Saunders' numbers in Arlington are a little deceiving as they were mostly compiled prior to 2010. Tremendous value with Baltimore tonight, and I'm close to making them a play. Haven't touched an MLB game in months, but liked the spot here. Appreciate any insight. Hope to see you in the football forums soon.

(handshake)
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#30
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:56:27 PM
23 game winning streak why go against it?
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#31
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:06:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lakers34kb:

23 game winning streak why go against it?

facing bum teams, last good matchup was josh johnson but marlins lineup you know how good they are..

most intense matchup so far was vs detwiler, nats hits him 7 times in 7 IP but only scored 1. however 7 hits can kill you any other day, detwiler also hit 7 times only conceded 2. braves proceed to win 5-1 because 3 run on top 9th.

he might proceed to win but i wont lay that many money. take my chances with lohse here. 
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#32
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:09:35 PM
Medlen has been THE best pitcher in baseball in the 2nd half, easily.  That said, it's all about whether he can handle the emotions.
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#33
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:12:36 PM
This game is no play for me. Without going into lengthy detail, I have the Braves winning this game but no way can I justify the price. Best of luck to everyone.
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#34
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:19:00 PM
I agree.. value is on the Cards.  Playoffs imo its always best to look to bet against the public.  They have such a strong presence in the playoffs that it almost always brings value to the other side.  I'm going with the under in this game myself 
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#35
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:44:07 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by DanTos8715:

Its a bit confusing comparing lines from the past. Different matchups, injuries, and situations (on the road, 1 game playoffs) factor into a line. I agree its inflated, but I wasnt expecting a +125 either. More in the +135 - +140 range. I might bite on Cards -1 or a Cards/over 6.5 parlay. If the Cards win, I dont see this game staying below 7.

Injuries and situations are sometimes way overblown... for the most part, lines from the past provide a pretty solid indicator because sharps do not make overreactions (though you don't want to delve too far into the past. I'm not looking at Lohse's lines from say, July.)

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#36
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:52:42 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Jose_Reyes:

What up Tone? Tough game IMO. Hard for me to lay chalk, but at the same time it's not easy goon against Medlen either. Good luck to you either way.

I am curious what you think about the O's. I think a lot of people are expecting Texas to just take care of business. I see a Texas team that is reeling, and lacks confidence. Saunders' numbers in Arlington are a little deceiving as they were mostly compiled prior to 2010. Tremendous value with Baltimore tonight, and I'm close to making them a play. Haven't touched an MLB game in months, but liked the spot here. Appreciate any insight. Hope to see you in the football forums soon.

(handshake)

What's good buddy... where ya been?

I think the BAL/TEX line is very sharp and pretty much spot on. I'm using Saunders lines @ Felix Hernandez (+145) and at home vs. Sabathia (also +145) as baselines.

My instincts and past line data tell me in the same spots, Darvish is probably -120 @ Felix and -110 at home vs. CC. As such, I've got Darvish at 35 cents better than Felix and 10 cents worse than CC. By proxy then, I've got data to support a line of +180 for Saunders @ Darvish and +135 for Saunders vs. Darvish (which equates to roughly +185 for Saunders @ Darvish).

At either +180 or +185, that doesn't differ much at all from the opening line (TEX -185/+175) or the current line (TEX 200/+185).

Hope this helps... BOL with whatever you decide, Jose.

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#37
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:56:46 PM
Good luck Tone!
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#38
Posted: 10/5/2012 2:09:36 PM
Parlay Cards +162 and under 6.5 +110 = +450 payout.  Good value there IMO
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#39
Posted: 10/5/2012 2:37:37 PM
Best bet here is probably under 3.5 1h cardinals don't score much on the road lohse and medlin are lock down guys early
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#40
Posted: 10/5/2012 2:50:40 PM
Good stuff Tone. Much obliged. Been too busy to keep up with the constant grind of baseball. If I miss a few days in MLB, it feels like a month. Which in turn makes me feel like I'm just throwing darts. At least with football I have time to look at matchups and lines during the week, and try to make an educated decision by the weekend.

Hope all is well, brother. I'm liking your steelers this week. They needed that bye week.
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#41
Posted: 10/5/2012 2:51:52 PM
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#42
Posted: 10/5/2012 3:14:10 PM
are you playing any games Tone?
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#43
Posted: 10/5/2012 3:21:14 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by PhillySportsFan:

are you playing any games Tone?

No sir... just posting my thoughts. I stay away from MLB playoffs.

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#44
Posted: 10/5/2012 3:23:27 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Jose_Reyes:

Good stuff Tone. Much obliged. Been too busy to keep up with the constant grind of baseball. If I miss a few days in MLB, it feels like a month. Which in turn makes me feel like I'm just throwing darts. At least with football I have time to look at matchups and lines during the week, and try to make an educated decision by the weekend.

Hope all is well, brother. I'm liking your steelers this week. They needed that bye week.

Good to hear all is well.

I hear you on the MLB thing... it's a sport where you have to keep up on things daily. It's such a grind.

GL with the Steelers if you play them... I see it at -3.5 at most shops now, hopefully you can wait a bit and see if you can grab a -3 on Sunday if it falls. Not that much difference between -3.5 and -4 so I think it's worth the risk to wait it out.

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#45
Posted: 10/5/2012 4:11:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by football_007:

Value or sucker we all will find out later today.

A defending champion with their ace vs a hot pitcher who has beat nobody but crappy teams and he has to lay -160s ? Somebody must know something. I may be wrong but that is how I see it. I will take the Braves ( my team ) as I think this is sucker line to take StL. IMO.



TO CALL KYLE LOHSE AN ACE IS AN OVER STATEMENT YES HES HAVING A GOOD YEAR BUT NO WAY IN HELL IS HE AN ACE.....HES A 3RD STRING PITCHER AT BEST FACT
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#46
Posted: 10/5/2012 4:23:00 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by For_The_Books:



TO CALL KYLE LOHSE AN ACE IS AN OVER STATEMENT YES HES HAVING A GOOD YEAR BUT NO WAY IN HELL IS HE AN ACE.....HES A 3RD STRING PITCHER AT BEST FACT

He is 16-3; 211 IP; 143 K's; 38 walks; WHIP of 1.09 would all argue that he is at least in the conversation for "ace"

I'm guessing there are almost 0 number 3 starting pitchers with stats like this.....

I am on Medlen and the Braves but Lohse is about as good as it gets this year.

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#47
Posted: 10/5/2012 4:32:38 PM
Left out ERA of 2.83 for Lohse as well......
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#48
Posted: 10/5/2012 8:54:57 PM
Still don't know why the line closed that high... congrats to Cards backers.
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#49
Posted: 10/5/2012 9:27:28 PM
Nice insight, Tone. 
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