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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Jays season win total is so off
Delpo send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Delpo
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#1
Posted: 3/22/2012 6:19:24 PM

I started a thread about a month ago speaking of the O/U of 80.5 wins and it started at -125 now jumped all the way to -150.

This team is friggin talented. The pitching staff is better then many have speculated.

I would say that will win 85 games with there eyes closed.

I dont usually make max bets, but I will be putting down as much as I ever had on a futures bet here.

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#2
Posted: 3/22/2012 6:38:01 PM
Bautista, Lawrie, Escobar are above average.  Encarnacion is average.  The rest of the hitters look to be below average or average at best.

Morrow and Romero look like very good pitchers.  The rest of the starting staff look average at best.  Maybe Henderson or Cecil hasa good year.  I wouldn't expect much from McGowan.

Bullpen looks good.

Manager seems to be pretty good.

That looks like a .500 team to me playing in the tough AL East.

What players am I underrating?
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#3
Posted: 3/22/2012 6:40:02 PM
AL East is a tough Division but you're right, 80.5 seems low.
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#4
Posted: 3/22/2012 6:52:39 PM

The last 5 weeks of the season for the Jays are tough.  They play  Bos/NYY/TB 23 times!  Losing 2011 record to all 3 last year. 

Very concerned with the depth of the SP staff but the offense looks like they will score some runs.

 

 

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#5
Posted: 3/22/2012 7:42:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thorpe:

Bautista, Lawrie, Escobar are above average.  Encarnacion is average.  The rest of the hitters look to be below average or average at best.

Morrow and Romero look like very good pitchers.  The rest of the starting staff look average at best.  Maybe Henderson or Cecil hasa good year.  I wouldn't expect much from McGowan.

Bullpen looks good.

Manager seems to be pretty good.

That looks like a .500 team to me playing in the tough AL East.

What players am I underrating?

You're underrating Rasmus. He was bad last season but in 2010 he was one of the very best CF'ers in the entire game.

You're underrating Arencibia. He was a rookie catcher last season who still showed tons of power and was much better defensively at the end of the season compared to the start.

Thames was a rookie who put up a good OPS for a first year player while showing good power to all fields. He is certainly at least a average hitter or better.

All 3 of those guys are at least "average" players and all 3 have the potential to be better.

Even if you want to throw in Lind and Johnson into the below average category, they certainly have shown to be better then that at certain points in the past.

Romero is a budding ace.

Morrow was injured to start the year last season and never got on track.

Henderson Alvarez is the real deal. Take his age into consideration and he was almost as impressive as Lawrie in both players small callups.

Cecil has lost 30lbs over the summer. He was decent the second half of the year last season and posted almost identical #'s that he did in his 2010 season where he had like 15 wins. For a #4 pitcher hes more then solid enough.

Mcgowen? Who the hell knows if hes good, average or bad. He hasnt pitched in so long that really noone knows. They do say however that hes been throwing the really anyone in camp. If he can stay healthy I dont see anything wrong with him being a #5 pitcher.

To me when people look at the rotation they look at the "Worst case scenario". They dont take into account that Romero has a chance to get better, that Alvarez might very welll be the real deal, that Cecil could easily pitch like he did in 2010. They almost say Alvarez is a young pitcher so he wont pitch well, Cecil sucks and McGowen has been out so long that he will most definitely not be very good. I think this rotation is better then what they showed last year but I guess thats why these are predictions. Spring training is spring training but after 20 games the entire starting rotation has looked very good.

Im not sitting here trying to say they are going to make the playoffs. I am saying that they are easily better then a .500 team. Heck they finished .500 last year with one of the worst bullpens in the league. Morrow was never on track because he started the year injured. They had a scrub in Jason Nix a good amount at 3rd. They have a scrub in Rivera in LF. They had one of the worst pitchers in the game in JO JO Reyes. There starting rotation had one of the worst ERA's in the league and a bullpen who blew more games then anyone else. To me they are easily a better team on paper this year with a much improved bullpen.

This team is a team with alot of uncertanties and question marks but they are legitiment question marks, its not like im asking something unrealistic like Rajai Davis to be the CF'er and hit .300 with 15 home runs and post a .900 OPS. You can look around the diamond and every position player has the potential to have a strong season.

Ill let you know that expectations around this team are high. The media coverage they are recieving is massive and if they finished below 80 wins there would be a big outcry amongst the fanbase. Again this team has many uncertanties but the talent is certainly there.

To me the starting rotation is better then last year.

To me the lineup is better then last year.

To me the bullpen is better then last year

They prolly finish with something like 85-87 wins.

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#6
Posted: 3/22/2012 8:26:28 PM
It's the division they play in. I think they could finish ahead of Boston, but Boston could finish fourth!
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#7
Posted: 3/22/2012 8:36:42 PM

Man I hope you are right, it would make for a great summer for me!!

The pen has to be better than last year but I'm really worried about the match up problems in the AL East with a 41 year old Oliver and not much else from the left side.   They will have problems with the heavily loaded LH batters on NY and Boston.

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#8
Posted: 3/22/2012 11:39:22 PM

 .500

 

you sound like fan , careful with that bet

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#9
Posted: 3/22/2012 11:41:39 PM
but 81-81 would win your bet !!
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#10
Posted: 3/23/2012 12:00:21 AM

I'm looking foward to coming home after work, catching the last few innings of the Jays game and not seeing Jon friggin Rauch on the mound.

 

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#11
Posted: 3/23/2012 2:08:49 AM
I was just discussing this with some trusted Jays fans after checking the O/U of the season. I agree with everything you've said here. If McGowen is the 5th starter, I'm happy with the starting rotation. You didn't mention question mark Kyle Draybek who was touted as a stud 2 years ago as well. Injury issues have kept him back, but he's pitched well so far in ST.

I think if you bet jays over, the correlating play should be Boston under. Boston is old old old, and if they stumble, and the Jays exceed, you should expect that the Blue Birds would have a winning record over their rivals.

With respect to the ALEast, I also expect the Rays to have a good season. Matt Moore as their fifth starter has the potential for 12-15 win this season. He's going to be the real deal, and won't be their 5th starter by the end of the season, and I expect him to start a post season game should they make it there..
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#12
Posted: 3/23/2012 10:48:13 PM

Plus they have the sexiest jerseys

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yj4qKWPkWEw&feature=player_embedded

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#13
Posted: 3/23/2012 11:07:52 PM
i think the jays can finish a few games over 500 this year.
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