|Hey everyone! It is so great to be back.
Posted: 11/10/2012 11:40:13 AM
To introduce myself -- I am relatively new to the forum; last year was my first year on Covers, and my first year wagering on college hoops. I could not have asked for a better year. I bet CBB, NFL, and NBA, but college is by FAR my strongest from a knowledge perspective and in terms of intuition.
I've been watching CBB closely for about ten years now, and although I just moved to NYC and will be working crazy hours, I have no intention of stopping. I recently obtained my CPA, and I believe it's my ability to analyze numbers/data that has helped me find success in this hobby. Everyone has their angle, and that is mine. For those who are familiar, I enjoy doing large write-ups on a lot of games when I have time, and will continue to do so as best as I can.
While there are a lot of a-hole trolls on this forum, I've found this site to be a pretty good network for information. Specifically, JFen, Riccio, Stuckey, KineProf, AMD, TRoe are all guys that I will read daily and consider. You should too.
GOALS/CHANGES THIS YEAR:
1) Way, way fewer plays. That was my biggest mistake last year, without a doubt. I thought I was too smart and had enough self control to NOT chase, but I was definitely guilty of it at times. I made a lot of money last year, but the volume of plays definitely cut into my profit.
2) Fewer favorites -- especially the short road favorites. If it looks too good to be true, it usually is. Favorites are now much harder for me to bet in any sport. The public loves favorites and overs. And while the public doesn't as lose as often as some people think, I'll usually just keep my hands off of games now that are begging to be bet.
3) More situational betting. It is BY FAR the best angle in sports, IMO. Especially in college. While it is grimy to say -- these guys are 18-22 years old -- they are prone to college-aged boneheaded things. They will have a lot of letdowns after big wins; they will sometimes lay eggs near the holidays; etc etc. Look for angles. I love CBB because there are so many teams, so many games, situational angles shows up a lot.
4) For the most part, I will be flat betting. Like I said, I am in this for the long haul. Locking and loading on a play you are *so* sure of is any easy way to kill bankroll and frustrate you. I am not cocky enough to think I am better than Vegas, and I will be holding back a bit more. That being said, you have to trust your gut and be intuitive about this to be successful, and I will look for exceptions and take advantage of opportunities when they arise.
5) I really got killed last March, which was my biggest surprise. I thought March would be the icing on the cake for a great season, but I got manhandled and really tailspun at the end of the year. However, teasers and ML parlays kept me afloat. I will continue to play them often, as I think they are great if you use them correctly.
6) To tack on to that -- MONEY MANAGEMENT. There is nothing more important than managing your money in gambling. I really, really reduced my bet size in March last year while I was getting killed, so it didn't hurt me much even though I was picking so many losers.
7) Fewer huge televised games. Lines are much tighter in these.
I guess that's it. I look forward to the next few months, and hope this year is as good as last. It will be a fun ride. You will almost definitely see less of me around here b/c of work, but I'll be around and will do my best to contribute when I can.