Posted: 10/11/2013 5:15:08 PM
Buffalo went down 23 to 0 in the first quarter in Columbus and lost that game 40 to 20 (outscoring the Buckeyes the final 3 quarters). The went down to Waco and, like every other team that has faced Baylor, they got whacked.
They give up almost 32 points per game and 446 yards per game. Take out the two games above, and that drops to 16.3 points per game and 329.7 yards per game.
Western Michigan played at Iowa and NW, 2 teams that are not Baylor or Ohio State. To be fair, if we remove these games, WMU is giving up 33 points per game (from 38) and 431 yards per game (from 440).
So, defensively, Buffalo has a big edge. On offense, Buffalo scores 13.5 more points per game and averages 30 yards more.
So we have a WMU team averaging 15 ppg against a Buffalo squad who has surrendered 16 ppg to like opponents. We have a Buffalo offense scoring 28.4 ppg against a WMU defense surrendering 33 points to like opponents.
Add the big advantage Buffalo has in turnovers (+6 to WMU -8) and I think the answer is clear. This will probably be a 14 to 17 point Buffalo win.
Probably more information than you all wanted....