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Author: [NHL Betting] Topic: mTbaKer's 1st Round Thoughts- Curious to hear what you think:
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#1
Posted: 4/10/2012 7:22:33 PM

Canucks (-209) vs. Kings (+187) Series:
Game 1 Line- Canucks -171 vs. Kings +157

I think this is going to be a very close series and I think a tough opponent like the Kings is good because the Canucks will be very focused and will be involved in low-scoring playoff hockey right off the bat.  Vancouver has done well recently in low-scoring contests winning 1-0 over both Colorado and LA, 2-1 over Dallas, taking the Bhawks to OT at 1-1, the Coyotes to OT at 1-1, beating the Devils 2-1 and Blues 2-0.  So I think the Canucks don’t mind playing these types of games.

The Kings are a very dangerous team.  2 years ago they took the Canucks to 6 games in their first postseason trip in a while and had a 2-1 series lead with Game 4 at home before blowing it.  Last season the Kings lost in 6 games to the Sharks WITHOUT KOPITAR and lost 3 games in overtime.  This year, LA have added Carter and Richards that have taken a 7 seed to the finals and a 6 seed to the 3rd round.  They also have a Coach in Sutter that took the number 6 Flames to the final about 8 years ago.  They have a battle-tested team with some new pieces to give them the confidence to pull off a big upset.  The big problem with the Kings is that they were the worst in the league at winning games when trailing after 2.  I’m not interested in touching the Canucks at this price with a banged up Sedin (Canucks won without him but a lot of the teams were not of playoff caliber) and the fans in Van tend to get down on the goalies or team if anything bad happens more than other cities.  Don’t wanna touch the Kings for Game 1 or Series with their scoring problems and the Canucks Game 1 dominance.  Will prob play MLs for either team during the series no interest in GM 1 or series. (CANUCKS in 7 games)

Blues (-155) vs. Sharks (+145) Series:

Game 1 Line- Blues -156 vs. Sharks +144

 

Here we have an impressive and rugged Blues team that played phenomenal hockey finishing 2nd in the West facing a Sharks team that disappointed badly at the start of the year but really picked it up afterwards.  The Blues have been relatively consistent since Hitchcock took over, but really struggled towards the end of the season losing 6/9.   The Blues lost badly to Phoenix and Detroit at home and sounded rather relieved that they finally got a win.  David Backes hasn’t been producing much of late and the Blues, who have many undersized forwards that are tough may be wearing down.  When I look at SJ, they never panicked throughout the year and they really start to pick it up down the stretch beating quality teams like the Kings, Yotes, Bruins, Wings, and Preds.  I know that the Blues won the season series 4-0 but none of those games were in the last month and I think SJ is motivated to show them that they are a new team.  The Sharks have always been a contender, and this is the first season where they are an afterthought.  I really like their mindset going in.

The Sharks got rid of some of their slow, shitty players like Heatley and brought in some more toughness and speed.  Galiardi and Winnik are rugged and Havlat is much quicker than Heatley.  When I look at the Sharks forwards they are similar to STL expect that they are bigger.  I just think STL is wearing down and having doubts of their standing and are going up against a motivated team that is relishing the underdog role.  The Blues also play 2 goalies, 1 in Elliot who had a career year and 1 in Halak who had a miraculous run with the Habs a few years back, I just think they might have a slip up here with some doubt as to who’s playing when.  Niemi has been playing solid of late.  I’m leaning towards making a series play on the Sharks at +145 and possibly Game 1 as their will be a nervous Blues team in the playoffs for the first time in a while (SHARKS in 6 games).

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#2
Posted: 4/10/2012 7:23:08 PM

Coyotes +108 vs. Blackhawks -119 Series:

Game 1 Line- Coyotes -125 vs. Blackhawks +115

 

The “cool” Blackhawks vs. the “lame” Coyotes.  The Blackhawks have won some big games over the Predators, Red Wings, and Blues after a horrendous run a couple weeks ago.  The Blackhawks have a ton of talent.  Toews has been out since Mid-February, Bolland and Brunette have missed about a week.  While they are all coming back it’s not easy to get fully back into gear.  The Blackhawks are a young, cocky team and they can get frustrated.  The Coyotes have a goalie in Smith who is on fire and looks confident unlike Bryzgalov.  The Blackhawks are a shotty defensive team and with Crawford not having a great year I could see this Coyotes defensive system taking advantage of some turnovers and scoring a soft goal here or there to deflate the team.  I think Smith’s the real deal and the Coyotes are coming in here confidently winning their last 5 games.  2 years ago when the Coyotes had home ice with little playoff experience they took Detroit to 7.  I think the Coyotes can take this but I don’t feel like wagering on them even though they are at a nice series price.  Might hit Coyotes Game 1 ML though cause the team has been playing well and Chicago will take a game to get Toews and these other guys meshing well. (COYOTES in 7 games).

 

Predators -114 vs. Red Wings +103 Series:

Game 1 Line- Predators -130 vs. Red Wings +120

 

This is probably the toughest series IMO.  You have two deep rosters and very disciplined teams that respect each other.  This is the first time that the Predators have been a favourite and are expected to win a series.  Not many people remember that Detroit was first in the West earlier in the year.  The Wings are a veteran team and are refreshed to play in an environment close to Detroit unlike SJ and Phoenix on the West Coast last year.  It is very tough to beat your “big brother” and many people are expecting a team in Predators that have won only one playoff series in a while to go very deep in the playoffs that usually isn’t a good thing.  Detroit is getting healthy over the past month and have won some key road games to end the season.  I think they get it done, but it’s too close to call.  I’ll be playing MLs and will likely be on Nashville ML for Game 1 as I think they’ll go all out to take the series lead.  I think the Wings will protect home ice and steal one in Nashville to take it (RED WINGS in 6 games).

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#3
Posted: 4/10/2012 7:23:25 PM

Rangers -207 vs. Senators +186 Series:

Game 1 Line- Rangers -174 vs. Senators +160

 

This is one of the upset series where people think it’s gonna be close and I agree with them.  The Senators have some issues with their defense as they give up a lot of goals.  The Senators also take the 5th most penalties in the league and that’s not gonna improve in front of a raucous MSG crowd.  One thing I will give credit for is that they have won against many good teams this year and have one of the best defenseman in the game in Karlsson.  Ottawa has played the Penguins in the first round in 2 of the last 3 years.   Pittsburgh is one of the toughest places to play and that experience will be huge for them here in NY.  I believe the Sens are confident to face a team that hasn’t been playing great hockey of late.  The Rangers limped into the playoffs.  I think NYR get through it but it’ll be close.  I might play the Sens to take game 1 or game 2 in NYR at plus money as the Rangers are not used to being a number 1 seed (RANGERS in 6 games).

 

Bruins -204 vs. Capitals +183 Series:

Game 1 Line: Bruins -177 vs. Capitals +163

I have watched a lot of my Bruins for the past couple of years. Boston almost always were very shaky in round 1 because they had many many failures in years past and a ton of pressure to succeed. This team has been through a lot together.  I think this is the one year that the Bruins don't feel much pressure even though they are a 2-seed. All the panelists are saying that it's hard to repeat, and Pitt is the team to beat, and that the Bruins are playing a Caps team ready to explode.

Boston is a very quick team this year and have the forwards in Bergeron, Kelly, Peverly, Marchand, and their grind line to wear down the Caps and keep up with them. The Capitals don't have much of a defensive system and I see them making a lot of turnover and the Bruins going the other way and capitalizing.  Boston lost the season series to the Caps but a lot of their losses came when they were not playing well or bad losing streaks.  The Bruins are playing much better since a little losing scare last season.  Boston has been pretty consistent all year and pacing themselves for the stretch.I don't think the Bruins series is gonna be as close as people think as the team is playing with a chip on its shoulder and hungry to overcome a bad season series to Wash, who are using their 3rd string goalie.  I am considering on playing Bruins Series and Bruins game 1 ML. (BRUINS in 5 games).

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#4
Posted: 4/10/2012 7:23:40 PM

 

Panthers +177 vs. Devils -197 Series:

Game 1 Lines- Panthers +106 vs. Devils -115

 

First off this series price is a joke.  The Panthers are nothing special but a team like the Devils should not be laying -200 on the road.  The Panthers are a tight knit bunch led by a confident and demanding coach.  While, this is the Panthers first show in a while they have many cast-off players that have a ton of playoff experience in Versteeg, Bergenheim, Madden, Campbell, and Goc to name a few.  The Devils are on a big winning streak to enter the playoffs but the majority of those have been over cupcake teams.  Brodeur has not been good the whole season and I do not like the Devils leadership at all.  Zajac, Parise, Kovalchuk have not won much the last few years and the Devils do not have a good backbone on D with Tallinder gone.  I think the Devils playing late on Friday will be hearing how they should roll the Panthers.  The Panthers are a pesky squad and have the forecheck to bother NJ.  I’ll likely be on Florida ML for Game 1.  Devils have too much talent against a squad that has the worst goal differential in the league.  Closer than people expect (DEVILS in 7 games).

 

Penguins -214 vs. Flyers +192 Series:

Game 1 Lines- Penguins -169 vs. Flyers +156

 

This is another series that I don’t think will be as close as people think.  Pittsburgh is just really deep and they have some gritty players in Vitale and Aasham to match Philly’s toughness.  The Flyers take way too many penalties and that will hurt them dearly this series.  Bryzgalov had career years with Phoenix but got smoked both times by Detroit.  Pitt’s offense has been high octane since Crosby got back.  Pitt’s the tougher and more skilled team and with Pronger and van Riemsdyk out for Philly I don’t think they can get in the way of Pitt.  Looking at Pitt Game 1 ML and might parlay Pitt and Bruins series. (PENGUINS in 5 games).

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#5
Posted: 4/10/2012 7:29:57 PM
Agree with a couple. Totally against you on a few. BOL buddy
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#6
Posted: 4/10/2012 7:39:30 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by HookEmHorns22:

Agree with a couple. Totally against you on a few. BOL buddy

sounds good man.  NBA and NFL are my best sports and NHL is one that I follow a little during the year and a lot during the playoffs.  I just wanted to hear some thoughts of what people have to think before I go balls deep on a series.

Btw do you think Toews's return really motivates these guys for Game 1 or do you think his rust from the return will take a game or so for the team to mesh with him as that can be the case in many sports?

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#7
Posted: 4/10/2012 8:01:39 PM
Great writeups mtbaker. Well done.
 
The more I think about the Kings/Nucks series the more excited I am to watch these teams battle. Mike Richards will be the key for LA. He'll probably draw H. Sedin or R. Kesler depending on which building they are playing. Obviously he will try to get physical with Sedin and Kesler. Henrik won't push back, but Kesler will and that matchup will be very intriguing. Will both players stay disciplined and out of the box? Vancouver has a lot better PP than LA so it will be imperative for Richards to play chippy, but keep the refs arms down.
 
The other matchup to watch will be Vancouver's very speedy forwards vs the Kings d-men. Scuderi, Greene, and Mitchell are not the most nimble players and have to be careful they don't get burnt. Doughty will have to play like he did two years ago for the Kings to be successful.
 
I think the Nucks will miss Torres and his grit. It seems Kassian isn't quite ready yet. On the other side it would help the Kings chances if Penner plays physical against Bieksa to help wear him down. Brown will do his part against Edler.
 
I also feel the Yotes will give Chicago everything they can handle. Phoenix has an interesting group of d-men. The Hawks have been wildly inconsistent this year, so even if Toews is okay, I still think the Yotes will be tough for them. Huge mismatch in goal is the key.
 
Amazing stat: This is the first time the Wings have finished lower than 2nd in their division in the N. Lidstrom era. friggin incredible.
 
One of these two teams are going to be very disappointed in losing this series. If the Wings lose, there will be the usual outcry saying it is time to revamp the nucleous in Motown. If the Preds lose, it will be discouraging because they are expected to at least get as far as last year (2nd round) or better since this is a team on the rise. They can say all they want about drawing Detroit, but the fact is there is not an easy team to play against in the West. I'm watching and not betting on this one.
 
For some unknown reason I'm expecting the Caps to give the Bruins trouble even with their goaltending issues.
 
I'm hoping Philly wins game one vs the Pens, so I can take the Pittsburgh to win the series at the huge discount.
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#8
Posted: 4/10/2012 8:21:32 PM
I think Toews has been ready. They were just saving him for the playoffs. But its a big help definitely
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#9
Posted: 4/10/2012 9:32:24 PM
good to see you mt! nice write ups, wish you the best for this playoff season!
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#10
Posted: 4/10/2012 10:58:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TDD:

Great writeups mtbaker. Well done.
 
The more I think about the Kings/Nucks series the more excited I am to watch these teams battle. Mike Richards will be the key for LA. He'll probably draw H. Sedin or R. Kesler depending on which building they are playing. Obviously he will try to get physical with Sedin and Kesler. Henrik won't push back, but Kesler will and that matchup will be very intriguing. Will both players stay disciplined and out of the box? Vancouver has a lot better PP than LA so it will be imperative for Richards to play chippy, but keep the refs arms down.
 
The other matchup to watch will be Vancouver's very speedy forwards vs the Kings d-men. Scuderi, Greene, and Mitchell are not the most nimble players and have to be careful they don't get burnt. Doughty will have to play like he did two years ago for the Kings to be successful.
 
I think the Nucks will miss Torres and his grit. It seems Kassian isn't quite ready yet. On the other side it would help the Kings chances if Penner plays physical against Bieksa to help wear him down. Brown will do his part against Edler.
 
I also feel the Yotes will give Chicago everything they can handle. Phoenix has an interesting group of d-men. The Hawks have been wildly inconsistent this year, so even if Toews is okay, I still think the Yotes will be tough for them. Huge mismatch in goal is the key.
 
Amazing stat: This is the first time the Wings have finished lower than 2nd in their division in the N. Lidstrom era. friggin incredible.
 
One of these two teams are going to be very disappointed in losing this series. If the Wings lose, there will be the usual outcry saying it is time to revamp the nucleous in Motown. If the Preds lose, it will be discouraging because they are expected to at least get as far as last year (2nd round) or better since this is a team on the rise. They can say all they want about drawing Detroit, but the fact is there is not an easy team to play against in the West. I'm watching and not betting on this one.
 
For some unknown reason I'm expecting the Caps to give the Bruins trouble even with their goaltending issues.
 
I'm hoping Philly wins game one vs the Pens, so I can take the Pittsburgh to win the series at the huge discount.

Thanks man.  You make some great points about the Kings back end.  I remember last year that the Sharks slow defense were chewed alive by the Canucks forwards in the 3rd periods of games.  I think that might happen to the Kings who might not have the puck most of the time with Carter not fully healthy.

I think a big bonus for the Sharks this year is the addition of Brent Burns.  He's a solid defenseman that can skate to improve the speed at the Sharks back end and he can chew up minutes so that Boyle and Murray won't wear down like they did in those up tempo games in the 3rd round of last season.  I like Havlat over the lazy Heatley any day and Galiardi and Winnik give the Sharks some grit that they were lacking last year.  I'm really liking SJ as a series play.

For my Bruins the only thing that scares me about them is that their defenseman might have trouble with the Capitals speed like Boychuck, Ference, and McQuaid as they are not the most nimble guys.  They perservered last year over quick teams but they were all close as they beat MTL, TB, and VAN.  Also my only other concern is that they might not be able to fully turn on the switch to playoff hockey.  Lemme know what u about these two Bruins thoughts think if u get a chance.

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#11
Posted: 4/10/2012 10:59:15 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by potvin:

good to see you mt! nice write ups, wish you the best for this playoff season!

thanks man- let's have a good playoff run!  Will be fun to chime in with all of you guys in here.

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#12
Posted: 4/10/2012 11:00:39 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by HookEmHorns22:

I think Toews has been ready. They were just saving him for the playoffs. But its a big help definitely

ya the Coyotes series is a tough one I'm probably gonna jump in after game 1

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#13
Posted: 4/10/2012 11:02:34 PM
wow, agree with you on all but the Pens and Devils. Think the Flyers will be too tough for the Pens and think Panthers and Clemmenson surprise the Devils.
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#14
Posted: 4/10/2012 11:17:00 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by SykesSystem:

wow, agree with you on all but the Pens and Devils. Think the Flyers will be too tough for the Pens and think Panthers and Clemmenson surprise the Devils.

haha hope we are on the right page- I think the Panthers will be very profitable during this series just not sure they can pull it out though there were some stats I looked at yesterday that really deterred me, but they have more heart IMO.

If Bryz is on it will be really close, I just feel as though Philly kind of seems like prey and they don't seem to be as physical as Pitt from watching the highlights and that would hurt em if they don't win that category.  I won't be touching the series price for that one.

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#15
Posted: 4/10/2012 11:52:31 PM
GL, I think the Bruins get it done, but Bruins banged up D concerns me a little. Agree with most of your thoughts, except I have a good feeling about the Preds this year but hard to go against an experienced red wings team. Hope you have a profitable playoffs 
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Posted: 4/11/2012 12:19:17 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by looch17:

GL, I think the Bruins get it done, but Bruins banged up D concerns me a little. Agree with most of your thoughts, except I have a good feeling about the Preds this year but hard to go against an experienced red wings team. Hope you have a profitable playoffs 


it's been confirmed that Boychuk is ready to go which is very fortunate since he went knee on knee with Asham just last week.... Mcquaid is uncertain but he is just a third line defensemen and we already got tons of depth, even without him the d can look like this:

          

Chara         Siedenberg
Ference      Boychuk
Zanon         Mottau or Corvo


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#17
Posted: 4/11/2012 4:19:20 AM

Game 1 Play for Wednesday:

Predators ML (-130) to win 10 units

I know I have Detroit for the series but I think the Predators come out with a ton of energy and bring it for this game.  I think Detroit knows this is going to be a long series and are going to pace themselves.  I think they’ll take at least 1 game to fully get into playoff mode.  Predators know they need to get a series lead.  Detroit’s off of 2 losses and the Preds are off of 3 wins to end the year.  The Preds have played a lot of playoff hockey so they’ll be ready here.  Also the Wings get Helm back for Game 2 and he’s a big part of their system and will be a big boost for these guys.

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#18
Posted: 4/11/2012 4:20:15 AM

Series Plays: (Note- these series plays will not affect who I take for games as I may bet on the opposing in-series)

Sharks to win 1st Round Series (+145) to win 45 units

Prop on Sharks to win Series 4-1 (+1014) to win 50 units

The Blues really struggled towards the end of the season losing 6/9.   The Blues lost badly to Phoenix and Detroit at home and sounded rather relieved that they finally got a win to end the season.  St. Lou has many rugged forwards but they are undersized.  When I look at SJ, they really started to pick it up down the stretch beating quality teams like the Kings, Yotes, Bruins, Wings, and Preds.  The Blues won the season series 4-0 but none of those games were in the last month and I think SJ is motivated to show them that they are a new team.  The Sharks have always been a contender, and this is the first season where they are an afterthought.  I really like their mindset going in.

The Sharks got rid of some of their slow, shitty players like Heatley and brought in some more toughness and speed.  Galiardi and Winnik are rugged and Havlat is much quicker than Heatley.  Sharks forwards are similar to STL expect that they are bigger and will wear em out over a full series. 

 

Red Wings to win 1st Round Series (+101) to win 35 units

Prop on Red Wings to win Series 4-2 (+411) to win 25 units

 

This is a very tough series.  I keep hearing that the trendy pick to win the West outside of your beloved Canucks, are the Predators.  Problem is that the Predators have only one series in their history and that was as an underdog.  They have never been a favourite in a series and now they are facing a Detroit team that is getting very little respect despite the fact that they were a number 1 seed earlier in the year.  The Wings are a veteran team and are refreshed to play in an environment close to Detroit unlike SJ and Phoenix on the West Coast last year.  Detroit is getting healthy over the past month and have won some key road games to end the season.  I have a lot of confidence in the Wings to get this done and I see absolutely no reason why they can’t beat the Preds.  I think the Wings steal 1 on the road and don’t lose a game at home..

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#19
Posted: 4/11/2012 4:20:47 AM

Bruins to win 1st Round Series (-204) to win 25 units

 

Going with my beloved Bruins..  I think this is the one year that the Bruins don't feel much pressure to win even though they are a 2-seed. All the panelists are saying that it's hard to repeat, and Pitt is the team to beat, and that the Bruins are playing a Caps team ready to explode.

Boston is a very quick team this year and have forwards in Bergeron, Kelly, Peverley, Marchand, and their grind line to wear down the Caps and keep up with them. The Capitals don't have much of a defensive system and I see them making a lot of turnover and the Bruins going the other way and capitalizing (pun intended).  Boston lost the season series to the Caps but a lot of their losses came when they were not playing well or bad losing streaks.  The Bruins are playing much better since a little losing scare last month.  Boston has been pretty consistent all year and pacing themselves for the stretch.I don't think the Bruins series is gonna be as close as people think as the team is playing with a chip on its shoulder and hungry to overcome a bad season series to Wash, who are using their 3rd string goalie.  Also Chimera of the Caps injured McQuaid last week, so I’m sure that’ll be fresh on Boston’s minds and they are gonna get it done.

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#20
Posted: 4/11/2012 4:21:34 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by looch17:

GL, I think the Bruins get it done, but Bruins banged up D concerns me a little. Agree with most of your thoughts, except I have a good feeling about the Preds this year but hard to go against an experienced red wings team. Hope you have a profitable playoffs 

I hope so man I think we can get it done again this year if we hit our stride in this first round.

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#21
Posted: 4/11/2012 4:22:26 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Bruins455:



it's been confirmed that Boychuk is ready to go which is very fortunate since he went knee on knee with Asham just last week.... Mcquaid is uncertain but he is just a third line defensemen and we already got tons of depth, even without him the d can look like this:

          

Chara         Siedenberg
Ference      Boychuk
Zanon         Mottau or Corvo


Ya getting Boychuk back is huge.  I think McQuaid will come back mid-round so this is big.  I think we get it done.  GO Bsssss

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#22
Posted: 4/11/2012 6:39:10 AM
great job, thanks for sharing

I like SJ, BOS, NYR,

GL

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mtbaker send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
mtbaker
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#23
Posted: 4/11/2012 11:29:49 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by fuxy008:

great job, thanks for sharing

I like SJ, BOS, NYR,

GL

Glad you enjoyed them man- hope we can make it a good round.

quote
mtbaker send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#24
Posted: 4/11/2012 11:34:04 PM

Predators ML (-130) to win 10 units 

 

NHL Postseason-to-date: 1-0-0 (+10.00 units)

 

Sharks to win 1st Round Series (+145) to win 45 units 

Prop on Sharks to win Series 4-1 (+1014) to win 50 units 

Red Wings to win 1st Round Series (+101) to win 35 units

Prop on Red Wings to win Series 4-2 (+411) to win 25 units 

Bruins to win 1st Round Series (-204) to win 25 units 

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looch17 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#25
Posted: 4/12/2012 12:06:02 AM
Nice job tonight and GL Tomorrow, Like a lot of what you're thinking. Wish the Bruins had of just rested McQuaid instead of trying him the other night, sounds like a concussion now which is hard to predict return date. Hate seeing corvo in the lineup. 
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