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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: THURSDAYS PICKS W/ WRITEUPS AND CONFIDENCE RANKING
bettinbig5
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#1
Posted: 6/21/2012 12:08:47 AM
COL-PHlL- Pick PHIL -167 - Confidence 8 - Francis is not a good pitcher and definitely one to be faded.  Worley has been very solid this year and thanks to Francis being on the other side of the mound, should get some run support. 

STL-DET- Pick STL -107 - Confidence 6 - Lohse has not done well in his career against the Tigers.  That was a different Tigers team, however, and he has performed well this year overall.  I trust the Cards a bit more than Detroit right now, especially with a rookie pitcher on the mound that hasn't proven anything.

LAD-OAK- Pick LAD -137 - Confidence 7 - Ace vs. 5th starter with an unimpressive minor and major league career.  The Dodgers should be able to put up a few runs on Blackley to get Kershaw the win this time.

TB-WASH - Pick WASH -129 - Confidence 5 - Moore is capable of pitching some great games.  Gio is the more consistent of the two, however, especially at home.  I really like wagering against the Rays when they face solid lefties.  Gio is definitely in that catagory.

MIN-PIT - Pick PIT -152 - Confidence 6 - My confidence would be higher in this game considering the difference between Hendriks talent and McDonald's, but the Pirates just don't show up to bat sometimes.  With that said, they SHOULD be able to get to Hendriks early and often.  I am just hoping that the Pirates can build a nice lead before McDonald goes out.

MIA-BOS - Pick BOS -128 - Confidence 7 - I don't trust Dice K, but I trust in what the Red Sox bats could do against Zambrano.  Over of 10.5 sounds high, but should hit as well.  I am just thinking that the safer bet is going with the hot bats though.

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willwrig
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#2
Posted: 6/21/2012 12:12:46 AM
Looks good.  Bol bb5
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#3
Posted: 6/21/2012 12:21:30 AM

All favorites??? 

I was leaning Rays initially, but they have some injuries and Gio is such a beast......

Love the Cardinals but the new guy makes me weary, how do the red birds fare against pitchers they have never faced before?? Seems like a trap game that Det wins by huge margin..

Day game in detroit, those fat lard as TIgers will have to roll out of bed and get on the field......

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#4
Posted: 6/21/2012 12:22:03 AM
bol
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DaGmen
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#5
Posted: 6/21/2012 12:29:01 AM
I'm with you on every single one... my 3 favs are Nats Pirates and Dodgers. 

Wont mess with that Redsox offense. Phillies should also win but after winning with them tonight in the fashion I did.. I'l take a vacation from the Phillies for a few days. 
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bettinbig5
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#6
Posted: 6/21/2012 12:57:13 AM
I know it is all favorites, but it is a short day.  Believe me, I have stated before that I don't really like days where it looks like all favs may win.  Since there are 6 games though, it is a bit more likely.  Of the dogs, I would say TB and DET have the best chance to win.  I just can't find myself backing Francis, a rookie pitcher against a first place team and Kershaw, Hendriks, or Zambrano against the Red Sox in Boston.  It's just one of those days again.  If anyone could provide some good reasons to back any of these teams, I'm all ears.  Just can't find any reasons to do so myself.
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bettinbig5
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#7
Posted: 6/21/2012 1:10:25 AM
Just wanted to add... you should never feel obligated to pick some dogs just because.  To elaborated more on the games, Wash is my lowest confidence because they are inconsistent at the plate.  Gio can pitch a phenomenal game, and if they have one of those days, they will lose to TB, who can get the sneaky HR or two.  Tigers have a good shot at the game too.  I just think the Cards are the better, more consistent team and am backing Lohse's experience along with fading the rookie and Detroit's bullpen.
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bettinbig5
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#8
Posted: 6/21/2012 1:19:08 AM
FYI, Turner has had a great minor league career and is one of the Tiger's top pitching prospects.  He has never faced a team as good up and down as the Cards though.  When he pitched last year in the majors, he got roughed up.  He did decent against the Angels, who weren't nearly as potent last year as this year.  He got absolutely crushed by the Royals and Orioles.  Just some food for thought.
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#9
Posted: 6/21/2012 4:26:17 AM

I like Tigers man, Lohse doesnt strike many people out and Detroits offense can breakout any game.

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bettinbig5
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#10
Posted: 6/21/2012 4:37:29 AM
Yeah that is one that worries me.  Not going big on it, and not really tying that one into any of tomorrow's parlays.  Just wanted to write on it and give my lean.  I think with the situations tomorrow, the Phillys take that game 9 times out of 10 though.  Really liking the Red Sox and Pirates.  Liking the Dodgers a little less now after rethinking that with the way they have been batting recently, they might barely get anything off a scrub like Blackley.  Kershaw gets 3 runs to back him, they should win though.  Next comes Wash (same thing with the inconsistent run support IMO).  Lastly, STL still just because can't support the Turner based on his minor league track record.  Last year's starts for him were a mess in general.  Tiger's just not as good of a team to back as STL in this situation.  Would like to see if Holliday is playing before I make a final decision though.
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#11
Posted: 6/21/2012 5:26:23 AM
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Orangemen44
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#12
Posted: 6/21/2012 5:28:06 AM
GL
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#13
Posted: 6/21/2012 5:50:22 AM
Bettinbig5 - Great write ups; with you on a couple. As for the STL game, Turner has control issues and walks a lot of batters. Lohse is the opposite which partly why he's won 75 % of his starts this season. Lets get it tomorrow...
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bettinbig5
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#14
Posted: 6/21/2012 6:09:17 AM
Thanks guys.  Always enjoy hearing other people's opinions on my write ups and if they feel the other way on things.  As i said before, sucks to be taking all favs, but I really need a reason before choosing a side, and I don't see many positives for the dogs tomorrow.  I'll tell you this much... if I only have a few starts under my belt and they were bad... I certainly wouldn't want to be facing the Cards when I came back up for the first time this year.  Thinking some nerves might get to him and it might take him a bit to settle.
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bettinbig5
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#15
Posted: 6/21/2012 8:19:09 AM
I've got to be honest, the only game I am really wavering on is that TB/WASH game.  I'm kind of worried that the Nats are going to have a difficult time putting up some runs...
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#16
Posted: 6/21/2012 9:04:42 AM
Best of Luck.....
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#17
Posted: 6/21/2012 9:15:45 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bettinbig5:

COL-PHlL- Pick PHIL -167 - Confidence 8 - Francis is not a good pitcher and definitely one to be faded.  Worley has been very solid this year and thanks to Francis being on the other side of the mound, should get some run support. 

STL-DET- Pick STL -107 - Confidence 6 - Lohse has not done well in his career against the Tigers.  That was a different Tigers team, however, and he has performed well this year overall.  I trust the Cards a bit more than Detroit right now, especially with a rookie pitcher on the mound that hasn't proven anything.

LAD-OAK- Pick LAD -137 - Confidence 7 - Ace vs. 5th starter with an unimpressive minor and major league career.  The Dodgers should be able to put up a few runs on Blackley to get Kershaw the win this time.

TB-WASH - Pick WASH -129 - Confidence 5 - Moore is capable of pitching some great games.  Gio is the more consistent of the two, however, especially at home.  I really like wagering against the Rays when they face solid lefties.  Gio is definitely in that catagory.

MIN-PIT - Pick PIT -152 - Confidence 6 - My confidence would be higher in this game considering the difference between Hendriks talent and McDonald's, but the Pirates just don't show up to bat sometimes.  With that said, they SHOULD be able to get to Hendriks early and often.  I am just hoping that the Pirates can build a nice lead before McDonald goes out.

MIA-BOS - Pick BOS -128 - Confidence 7 - I don't trust Dice K, but I trust in what the Red Sox bats could do against Zambrano.  Over of 10.5 sounds high, but should hit as well.  I am just thinking that the safer bet is going with the hot bats though.



That magical win by Philly have me till today.  If I do have to pick this game, I would go with Worley and Philly bats over Colorado Rookies. 

The whole world is on STL and I think rookie blues would be on Turner today.  Looking for lots of wild pitches and walks.  Only question to you is:  How well is STL against someone they never face before? 

LAD.  I have no idea how OAK can win games.......... 

TB/WASH is a pick game.  I would have to lean on the home team myself. 

PITT.  McDonald.  PERIOD.  I think he's underrated. 

MIA/RSOX.  When Big Z is on, no one can hit him but when he struggles, he throws a meatball party.  Looking for the weather to hang his fast balls enough for Redsox to launch bombs tonight. 

BOL to us all!    look for the sweep! 
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KeyElement
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#18
Posted: 6/21/2012 9:42:49 AM
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