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Final Regular Season YTD 2012: 363-369-37, +245.87 Units, 6.72% ROI

2012 Playoffs: 0-1, -5 Units

The Week: 4-9-1, -17.85 Units All Plays Are 5 Units, FLAT, Do NOT “add the juice”

Minor adjustment again today as yesterday I did not start a playoff tally and the Cards-Braves under loss was recorded with the regular season. My bad. NBFD.

Tigers -153 (F5), -150 (FG) (Milone / Fister)

Many of us would like to see the A’s continue a storybook season and go all the way, but I think they are going to have to pull a three game sweep at home to go any further. Tommy Milone is, imho, a really poor choice for the start today. West Coast lefties are always suspect when pitching in the more hitter friendly parks anywhere east of the coast. If Milone’s road era looks bad already at 4.83, you also better be aware that it is 5.75 east of the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Doug Fister only pitched in two pitcher friendly West Coast parks this year and both starts came early in the season, but he surrendered only one earned run in 13 innings for an 0.69 era. I also love that 2.77:1 GB/FB ratio Fister combines with his 3.70:1 K/BB ratio. It is not hard to see why he is sometimes overlooked and undervalued on the same staff with Justin Verlander, but the credentials are certainly there. Given the KeyMetric pitching advantage of 76.1/68.6, and a slight offensive advantage at 32.3/29.7 plus HFA, I expect the Tigers to romp home with the win fairly easily.

Yankees -157 (F5), -155 (FG) (Sabathia / Hammel)

I can’t compliment Jason Hammel enough on a fine season after escaping Coors Field for another, though lesser, hitter’s park. Unfortunately the Orioles best is not up to the standards of the Yankees best. Sabathia has “been there, done that” and knows all he needs to know about facing another ace in a playoff format. I expect the Orioles to see the real Sabathia today. I am well aware the Yankees dropped two of three Sabathia starts at Baltimore this year, but the dream has to end sometime soon as luck runs out. The Orioles played hard and I don’t want to diminish that in any way, but they were helped greatly by the Rays injuries and the collapses of the Blue Jays and Red Sox, as well as that incredible 29-9 record in one run games. A fine season, yes, championship caliber, no.  

I may be back with a play on the Reds / Giants game later, not sure yet and won’t guess at the line anyway.

BOL