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Year-to-date figures.  I also looked up the 2009 and 2010 numbers to determine what kind of risk/swings can be expected or likely (I always know that anything is possible!) 

The lines are game time lines based off of covers baseball scores.  Anyone can verify these numbers and you will find that everything is legit!  Here they are:

2011 Stats:

-200 and up (3-2)

-190 to -199 (2-0)

-180 to -189 (3-3)

-170 to -179 (7-8)

-160 to -169 (7-4)

-150 to -159 (8-6)

-140 to -149 (9-5)

-130 to -139 (12-12)

-120 to -129 (9-11)

-110 to -119 (14-21)

-100 to -109 (18-27)

+100 to +109 (33-16)

+110 to +119 (17-14)

+120 to +129 (12-12)

+130 to +139 (5-10)

+140 to +149 (6-8)

+150 to +159 (3-7)

+160 to +169 (8-7)

+170 to +179 (3-5)

+180 to +189 (1-1)

+190 to +199 (1-0)

+200 and up (0-2)

If you bet a modest $50 per game wager on +100 to +129....you would have had 12 winning days out of 15 (one of those yesterday at -$26.50) and profited a total of $1210.00 as of all games played 4-14-2011.   

2010 was not so great. For the entire month of April you would have gone 71-74 for a small  profit of $280.50 again @ $50 per game.  There was a horrible stretch from April 13th to the 16th where +100 to +129 went a horrific 4-17 (which would make most bail!!!!) only to profit in 10 of the next 11 days.

2009 was outstanding in April. For the month going 86-76 for a profit of $1021.50.  So you can see what Shirley says about 2011 is true!  Hope this helps!!!!

GetEveryDollar   Thank you for the kind words.  I'm not that smart, but  sometimes I am able to come up with creative ideas and am willing to work hard at everything I do, that ultimately makes me "lucky" in the long run. In general, It seems that the harder one works, the luckier they get. You can certainly do more on your own than this study has done. There are many directions where one can travel to improve upon this simple selection method.

kcilengir  Genius NOT. Dunce.....YES YES YES!

RutgerRot214   Teriffic job in doing further research. Like I have said before, a further filtering process will even raise the expectation of the average play, with a smaller population. Thus you will be able to make larger wagers with a larger advantage, while keeping the banrkoll requirements approximately the same. Nice work.

I remember a poster saying that every game has a different set of circumstances thus a simple selection method would not work, and that it was foolish for me to think that this is valid or if math has a memory, etc.

My response is that in spite of the fact that every game is its own puzzle, the similarities between games in this population of underdogs of +1.00 to +1.29 is astounding. This is where the posters logic is somewhat flawed. Each of these games has enough similarites with other games within the entire population, that the lines at the closing are every close to each other and in such a small window that the linesmakers perception is that of similar teams=similar lines, at least for the month of April that is. If this fact was not true, the lines would not be so close to each other. The circumstances surrounding a majority of games are  indeed quite similar, creating virtually the same event over and over again.

However, I am in agreement with the poster on another level. Since this method can easily be improved upon by a further filtering process, this validates the fact that every game is indeed its own puzzle, and handicapping does matter to a certain degree in April. This filtering process combined with some basic handicapping knowlege, and a couple of out of the box thoughts can raise the total amount of wins by at least 40% for the month.  This has been my experience over time throughout the month of April.

Shirley

Haiti  Read the thread from the beginning. This might help you out a bit.

Today (Sunday 4/17) was a good day if you used the method on its own. It held up rather well.

You should have shown a profit somewhere in the 4.3-4.4 unit area, just wagering on the small dogs of +1.00 to +1.29.

Shirley

Here are my under plays thru May 01.Looks like the 110-119 and 140-149 have been the worst. With 130-139 the best.  Around 46-47% will show a long term profit.

                           W                 L

101-109            13                12                     81.59           52%

110-119            14                 25                  -574.09          36%

120-129             11               10                    172.18          52%

130-139             18               14                    512.91          56%

140-149               1                  8                   -312.20          11%

TOTALS            57                 69                  -119.61          45%