The #1 argument I keep hearing...

Forum: NFL Betting
Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: The #1 argument I keep hearing...
Dolphan PM Dolphan
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Posted: 1/14/2012 12:56:02 PM
for SF backers is that on the road NO hasn't played very well, with their three losses coming on the road and only covering by a slim margin in the others. Now I'm not arguing that SF is not the right side today but I think there's a lot to be said about the way NO has finished the season. As we all know, momentum is huge in this league and I don't think any of the teams left have as much as NO coming into this weekend. When I look at those "not so convincing" road games, they are all in the first half of the season. In 6 of NO's last 7 games we've got only one game where they didn't win by a margin of at least 14 points. Granted that one game was a road game against TEN, but more importantly to me is that they've dominated every team they've played in the latter part of the season while gaining some huge momentum coming into the playoffs when it really counts. I also think that NO is well aware of the struggles they've had on the road and will do everything they can to not let a repeat of last year happen again this year.

GL with whatever you guys are playing, I just know that I'm not willing to bet against a guy like Drew Brees who's playing out of his mind and seems to be on a mission this year


Area51 PM Area51
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Posted: 1/14/2012 12:59:23 PM

Well said.  My gut tells me the same thing.  I have not decided but fell NO or no play and wait till 2h.

Good Luck to you.

 

Akshun_Junkie PM Akshun_Junkie
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Posted: 1/14/2012 1:00:43 PM

What about the fact that SF offense doesn't make mistakes. By mistakes I mean turn over the ball. Ya they kick field goals and people are upset about that but their not turnovers. San Fran defense creates turnovers. New Orleans offense is probably the best ive seen but their defense is suspect unless a team becomes one dimensional. San Fran has the best defense in football and of course, they are at home :)

 

Dolphan PM Dolphan
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Posted: 1/14/2012 1:02:01 PM
area51 again, I'm not saying that N.O. is the right side today. But its N.O. or a no play for me because I'm not willing to bet against them right now
onebrokebloke PM onebrokebloke
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Posted: 1/14/2012 1:03:00 PM
I think alot of what people are saying that get's overlooked is the game will be CLOSE which means taking the 3.5 points is a rational choice...not necesarily that SF is BETTER....
Dolphan PM Dolphan
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Posted: 1/14/2012 1:03:22 PM
Junkie Good point, turnovers might end up being a huge factor today
Akshun_Junkie PM Akshun_Junkie
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Posted: 1/14/2012 1:05:02 PM

Alex Smith threw the fewest number of INT's amongst starting QB's this year who qualify in games played this year.

 

kcobra PM kcobra
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Posted: 1/14/2012 1:06:40 PM

Nice write up. I say this every week, "Saints score TD's and their opponets score field goals.

Saints will score 3 TD's and 1 FG = 24

49ers will score 3 FG's AND 1 TD = 16

depeche2 PM depeche2
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Posted: 1/14/2012 1:07:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Akshun_Junkie:

What about the fact that SF offense doesn't make mistakes. By mistakes I mean turn over the ball. Ya they kick field goals and people are upset about that but their not turnovers. San Fran defense creates turnovers. New Orleans offense is probably the best ive seen but their defense is suspect unless a team becomes one dimensional. San Fran has the best defense in football and of course, they are at home :)

 



They haven't made a lot of mistakes, but it doesn't mean some mistakes can't happen today.  They've somewhat relied on perfect football.  Might not be the best formula.  I just can't go against Brees here.
Dolphan PM Dolphan
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Posted: 1/14/2012 1:08:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Akshun_Junkie:

Alex Smith threw the fewest number of INT's amongst starting QB's this year who qualify in games played this year.

 

That's true but Alex Smith is also on a tight leash and doesn't let it fly the way most QB's do. SF runs an offense that puts the QB in spots where its difficult to be so bad as to throw interceptions in the flat and on short crossing routes
Crashdavis565 PM Crashdavis565
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Posted: 1/14/2012 1:10:17 PM
When the Saints beat the Colts in the Super Bowl, Manning was playing the same way. I saw him that day get ready for the Big Game and he was putting on his pants, one leg at a time.
The key to stopping a great QB is pressure. I think the Niners can get that done today.
That is the question, the Niners front 7 vs the Saints all pro line.
Time will tell
GL
Dolphan PM Dolphan
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Posted: 1/14/2012 1:10:35 PM
depeche2 good to get some feedback from a covers legend
Akshun_Junkie PM Akshun_Junkie
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Posted: 1/14/2012 1:11:28 PM
I can understand the fact its hard to go against Brees. I can also agree with the fact that they rely on the fact that they don't make mistakes on offense which may not be the right formula but their defense is killer and New Orleans needs a defense that can cause turnovers to say that San Fran will somehow screw up and allow many turnovers in todays game against the Saints. New Orleans only created 9 INT's this year. League worst was 8.
pawncrusher PM pawncrusher
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Posted: 1/14/2012 1:11:53 PM
49ers have a great defense because they're in a shitty div. and played a soft schedule. Saints 24-16
degengambler34 PM degengambler34
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Posted: 1/14/2012 1:16:00 PM
I heard the grass is long and uncut in san francisco:), I also heard they have these guys named justin smith, aldon smith, and peter willis:) This game in all honesty should be a pick em, and they are giving you 4 points. What your gut tells you should not impact what your brain says, and my brain tells me that the value is on san francisco here. Whether it's the right pick or not matters not for a good capper, it's the right assessment, thats what matters. 
Dolphan PM Dolphan
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Posted: 1/14/2012 1:16:01 PM
On a side note I just finished Drew Brees' book "coming back stronger" and although it was tough to read at times because of his extreme faith and love of god, the fact is this guy is a winner and one of the most motivated and prepared players that's ever played the game. This guy will always give everything he does in life 110% and I can promise you that he'll be ready and have his team ready to get a win (on the road) today.
Dolphan PM Dolphan
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Posted: 1/14/2012 1:19:45 PM
degengambler I completely agree with the fact that the value lies with SF, but again I would rather just lay off this game all together than bet against Brees and company today
Daran.T PM Daran.T
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Posted: 1/14/2012 1:21:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Dolphan:

As we all know, momentum is huge in this league and I don't think any of the teams left have as much as NO coming into this weekend.  In 6 of NO's last 7 games we've got only one game where they didn't win by a margin of at least 14 points...also think that NO is well aware of the struggles they've had on the road and will do everything they can to not let a repeat of last year happen again this year.


Thanks Dolphan, this helps a lot.

Saints 31, 49ers 20 
tinoker55 PM tinoker55
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Posted: 1/14/2012 1:21:54 PM
And to boot the line just went back from -3 to 3.5 and they juiced san fran at - 115..... Lots a love for them all week means... Where are you from in Ct Dolphan?? Im originally form Darien..GL and Go Saints..
Dolphan PM Dolphan
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Posted: 1/14/2012 1:33:22 PM
tinoker55, I was born in New Britain but basically lived my whole life in Torrington which is about 30 minutes north of Waterbury. I'm gonna be moving to Wilmington, N.C. very soon though
Dolphan PM Dolphan
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Posted: 1/14/2012 1:34:17 PM
Daran.T GL today
jwarner1313 PM jwarner1313
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Posted: 1/14/2012 1:39:04 PM
I'm going with SF 1st half +3
dgold69sports PM dgold69sports
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Posted: 1/14/2012 1:40:14 PM
peter willis? patrick willis is good. saints run game getting overlooked. thomas and sproles will have good enough games running the ball to slow down the san fran pressure. not to mention they have to keep someone on sproles every snap out of the backfield because he is a threat to take it all the way everytime he touches the ball

Dolphan PM Dolphan
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Posted: 1/14/2012 1:48:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dgold69sports:

peter willis? patrick willis is good. saints run game getting overlooked. thomas and sproles will have good enough games running the ball to slow down the san fran pressure. not to mention they have to keep someone on sproles every snap out of the backfield because he is a threat to take it all the way everytime he touches the ball

This is very true, guys like Sproles and Graham are gonna create some problems that I'm not sure SF has had to deal with much this year. I also think were gonna see NO shortening their passing game a little in an effort to try to get receivers open quicker so Brees wont be getting hammered all day
tuck321 PM tuck321
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Posted: 1/14/2012 2:10:26 PM
I'd say the Saints and Pats are two of the most publicized teams in recent years.

Going against a relatively new contender and a completely new contender.

If the books aren't adding a couple of points on that basis they aren't doing their job.









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