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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: 11-12 Automatic bets for NBA
canadiantruth send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#1
Posted: 11/30/2011 9:11:00 PM
Been thinking about this for awhile, and there are a few trends I plan on playing blindly this season.

The few automatic bets I have this year;

1) Clippers first quarter.  They have the game lines set fairly accurate, and the first q is ALWAYS 1/4 of that.  If you catch it early, before it get's juiced up......I see no reason for this trend to stop this season.   Maybe not hitting at as high a rate as last, but still profitable.

2) Fading Boston ATS on B2B's or 3 in 4's.  Not sure of the exact stats, but these guy's do not play well on back to backs.   Unless they get some fresh legs in there before the season starts, I would expect this to hit 60% of the time.

3) Overtime, plus travel on a b2b is nearly impossible to show up the second game.  Add to this an already an over demanding, compressed regular season, and I just don't see the legs.

That's it for now.  I want to pull a little more data on the clippers theory before I lock it in stone, but I am pretty sure these 3 idea's should be profitable.  May expand them into a type of martingale system.

Any other's you are thinking of for the upcoming season?

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kaponofor3 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#2
Posted: 12/1/2011 11:05:04 AM
Utah was a surprisingly good 1Q and 1H team last year if I remember correctly... I think Prof1 made a killing on them in the 1Q
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#3
Posted: 12/1/2011 12:04:45 PM
Fade the heat because it is a huge public team
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#4
Posted: 12/1/2011 12:12:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

Utah was a surprisingly good 1Q and 1H team last year if I remember correctly... I think Prof1 made a killing on them in the 1Q


I thought they were terrible in the 1H and would dominate 2nd halves of games?  Do I remember this incorrectly?  Didn't we always used to fade them in the 1st half then miraculously they would come back in the 2nd?
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#5
Posted: 12/1/2011 12:14:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by samdude3:

Fade the heat because it is a huge public team


Not if they acquire Chandler and Battier.    Fading a team that has everything to prove this season could be fatal.
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#6
Posted: 12/1/2011 10:27:38 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by PapaShango:



I thought they were terrible in the 1H and would dominate 2nd halves of games?  Do I remember this incorrectly?  Didn't we always used to fade them in the 1st half then miraculously they would come back in the 2nd?

haha prof1 made a killing fading the Jazz by going against them in the 1st Q if I remember

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#7
Posted: 12/1/2011 11:37:33 PM
Lakers were 4-12 ATS against double digit spreads at home last season 
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#8
Posted: 12/2/2011 12:38:57 AM
ya some on the ones i remember were the clippers you mentioned. utah fade the 1q/1h. huego is right about the lakers, but if i remember correctly they started out the year covering those spreads. but as brown and blake sucked they would start letting teams back door them a couple months into the year. 

also portland was a great 2h/4q team at home, when they were down or in a tight game. that crowd usually pulled them through in games. 
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#9
Posted: 12/2/2011 2:08:45 AM
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kaponofor3 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#10
Posted: 12/2/2011 9:42:47 AM
I might have had that backwards, apologies fellas
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CMJohnson1
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#11
Posted: 12/2/2011 12:03:00 PM
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNDERS

LA CLIPPERS 1ST QUARTER ML

FADE THE HEAT AS DOUBLE DIGIT FAVORITES
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#12
Posted: 12/2/2011 1:59:40 PM
How do you guys think a tired team effects totals? Tired legs = lots of bricks and bad shooting % OR tired team = sloppy D and easier scoring opportunities for opposition?
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#13
Posted: 12/6/2011 1:14:03 AM
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canadiantruth send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#14
Posted: 12/6/2011 8:00:56 PM
Great points.
It was fading utah in the first half/quarter, they were a huge comeback team.

bbdd005, I always thought tired legs would mean bad jumpshots, less fast breaks.  Last season I put it out there and got responses as well as watched some games, and it is the opposite.  Tired legs = tired defense.    It is not a great blind play, but could be used as a capping tool.

xhuegox, nice lakers trend.  I will definitely add that one to my aresenal. 

Cmjohnson, I always heard that early afternoon unders were golden, but would love to see stats....even anecdotal evidence.   I'll do a bit of back checking, and post what I find.

Great preseason conversation here.
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#15
Posted: 12/8/2011 8:36:58 AM
all the great cappers early in this thread.. looking forward to getting some more insights from you guys..kind of new here..but been reading your threads from few years back..hope to get tagged along with the harvest guys..
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#16
Posted: 12/8/2011 9:46:29 AM
GL for the season CT
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4degreeswarmer send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
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#17
Posted: 12/8/2011 1:21:33 PM

This season might be a big challenge. There will teams that  have 7 games in 9 nights! How the hell do you  cap that?Can you imagine a team thats old with little depth like the celts?Going to be some bizzare lines near the end of these stretches. Depth will be big. The 9th,10th and 11th guys have never been so important.

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canadiantruth send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#18
Posted: 12/8/2011 10:57:59 PM
Depth
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knoxcr
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#19
Posted: 12/9/2011 2:44:51 PM
How about the other side of the 42 back-to-back-to-backs?
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#20
Posted: 12/9/2011 5:36:01 PM

I hoticed the Heat were slow to get going.  I dont bet the NBA, but it would seem with 5 players on the floor at anytime, it would take time to adjust their games to each other. But once they get it....

If Paul was to go to LA, fade them the first 3 - 4 weeks, then pound ?

Great chance for any team that has all their returning players and young. Especially with the short preseason.

Miami vs Oklahoma final

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