MY CBB GAME OF THE YEAR
UNDER RIDER/ALBANY 147 (5 UNITS)
The fact that this is my G.O.Y. does not mean it's a L&%K! All it means is that I see factors, have information and combined with my analysis, I am willing to risk more money on this play than I have on any other all season. What anyone else does with it is their business but I wanted to share it with my friends here. No matter what, "Bet with your head and not over it!"
Albany is a decent 16-13 this season but TODAY will be most likely be without three starters. Garardo Suero has been the surprise of the America East conference this year and could win Player of the Year. Nobody knew what to expect front he junior college transfer from the Dominican Republic and all he has done is average 22 ppg, 5.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists and has shot 34% from the three. In his L20 games, he has scored 20+ or more 16 times. He is extremely doubtful due to a bout with shingles with a 10% chance he could play 5 minutes or so just for conditioning but it isn't likely to happen. Logan Aronhalt averages 14.6 ppg and 4.5 rebounds and shoots 36% from the three and is out with a knee problem. Luke Devlin averages 6 ppg and 4.5 rebounds and is also out with a knee problem. These three players average 42.6 of Albany's 73 points per game (58.4% of their offense).
This is the first game where all three players will miss the full game together. Suero and Aronhalt have played 28 of Albany's 29 games and Devlin has played in every game.
Now here is the key. Albany averages 73 points a game and 66.7 possession per game (150th in the country). Last game, Aronhalt and Devlin both got hurt early in their last game against Vermont (the best team in the America East). Aronhart got hurt 9 minutes into the game and Devlin got hurt 12 minutes into the game. Immediately, Coach Will Brown, realizing his team was "outmanned" went to a slow, hold the ball and use the clock pace. In Albany's previous 10 games, their possession numbers were 69, 64, 69, 67, 62, 71, 63, 69, 63, 67. In the Vermont game, they had 52 possessions, a HUGE drop off and the slow down adjustment was not fully made until late in the first half. The final score was Vermont 50 and Albany 47. Rider is a lot different type of team than Vermont so I don't see a game like 50-47 here but 147 is a very high total.
Word is that Coach Brown knows this game doesn't mean much and he wants his team healthy for the America East tournament so there is not much reason to even try and use Suero. I am told there is a 10% chance he could play 5 minutes or so just for conditioning. He also knows his team cannot match the pace, depth, three point shooting and offensive firepower of Rider (not that they are a juggernaut but they can score). So in practice yesterday, they were working all practice on controlling the tempo in a half court offense and using the shot clock to slow down the game and limit possessions just like they did against Vermont.
This total is about 20 points too high in my estimation and that is why I am making my biggest play of the year on it.
Now, it's only one game and again, there is no such thing as a l&%k! What if Rider goes up 20 in the first half? Albany might have to play catch up and play a bit quicker, although I don't see how they can score efficiently with only 8 players dressing for today's game and missing 58% of their scoring. What if the game somehow goes to double overtime? One never knows. I throw these cautions out just to remind people, it's just a game and anything can happen but it doesn't mitigate that I love the play.
I will also be playing Rider -1 for 1.5 units. Both Jones and Gadson will play for Rider. I strongly endorse the under play in the 1st half even more but it's harder to get down on first halves in large amounts. The only way I could see this game going over is if Rider puts up in the mid 80's (which means they will cover) and I don't see that many points being scored.
Best of luck to everyone on whatever you all decide. It's only one game and anything can happen. All I am doing is telling you the facts of what I am playing and how I played it.
It also comes with my 100% guarantee that if it loses or doesn't cover by at least 10 points, my entire baseball season will be free here on Covers.
RIDER -1 (1.75 UNITS)