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Author: [College Football] Topic: ATC's Computer Picks: Week 5
ATCawsw
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ATCawsw
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#1
Posted: 9/28/2010 6:08:58 PM

Oi Vey.......another craptastic week for the underdog selections the computer made, going 1-3.  Favorites came up 4-3 for at least something positive.

I have been working on the Underdog formula all weekend, and god knows it wasn't fun trying to find a winning computation out of this year.  I have had to run so many simulations until I finally got a formula which has gone 4-0 this year....everything else I ran came up with a losing record or even less picks.  What does that mean...well it means the parameters are so tight right now, that there isn't even a selection this week that falls into the formula.  I will have to re-visit again after this weekend, to see if I can loosen it up again, but it really isn't looking like it right now.

So on with the computer picks for WEEK 5:

Underdog Selections:  YTD (wk 3/4)  1-8  (looowwww %)

None 

Favorite Selections:  ytd  (week 3/4) 7-5  58.3%

Alabama -9.5 vs Florida

Boise St. -41.5 vs New Mexico St.

UCONN -7 vs Vandy

Pitt -19.5 vs Fla International

TCU -33 vs Colorado St (finally the computer is on the other side..though they did hit last week)

UTEP -14.5 vs New Mexico

USC -11 vs Washington   (Home field should help them some)

And now for your viewing pleasure I have been working on a formula for predicting OVERS for the last 4 weeks.  For the season it has went 12-2 for me and went 5-0 last week (thank god cause I lost money on my other bets).  So.....I would like to put the OVER picks on here, and give it the old Covers jinx and see if it can keep up with what it is doing.  Again, only 4 weeks of using this new formula, but it looks pretty solid so far.....let's see how she do.  Next project will be an UNDERS program....do i really have time to do all this.....probably not, but sleep is over-rated.

OVERS PREDICTION FROM THE PUTER:

FLA ST/ VIRGINIA OVER 48

VA TECH/NC ST OVER 55

PENN ST / IOWA OVER 42

As always best of luck to you all, may your wagers be large and your losses non-existent! 

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#2
Posted: 9/28/2010 6:11:14 PM


BOL ATC
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#3
Posted: 9/28/2010 6:12:36 PM
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#4
Posted: 9/28/2010 6:20:54 PM

Like the overs, UTEP, and TCU...not against you on anything.

 

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#5
Posted: 9/29/2010 12:05:36 PM
If the Puter is going 1-8 then keep the formula as is and just bet against the Puter's selections.  If your results are 5-5 to me that is just flipping a coin.  I would like to know your results that produce 1-8 for week 5 and then let's track the Puter's losers - if they are consistent then we have a winning formula of just picking the opposite of the Puter!!
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DoubleUp4Life
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#6
Posted: 9/29/2010 12:10:09 PM

BOL Brother

I am shocked not to see any Dogs

Like the Doores to maybe win Outright

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QBoption
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#7
Posted: 9/29/2010 12:30:38 PM
very hard to pick 3 str8 overs, so the most shakey one is Iowa/pennst...
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#8
Posted: 9/29/2010 12:35:40 PM

Probably have those calculations so complex now to weed out all those losers...should be much improved and be spitting out dog winners for the rest of the year.

 

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#9
Posted: 9/29/2010 1:58:10 PM
Keep at it ATC, I believe in the 'puter!
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#10
Posted: 9/29/2010 1:58:59 PM
no underdog picks? awe man i was looking forward to your underdog picks. oh well lets hit them favorites up
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#11
Posted: 9/29/2010 3:19:43 PM
BOL
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#12
Posted: 9/29/2010 4:46:15 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by BusterG:

If the Puter is going 1-8 then keep the formula as is and just bet against the Puter's selections.  If your results are 5-5 to me that is just flipping a coin.  I would like to know your results that produce 1-8 for week 5 and then let's track the Puter's losers - if they are consistent then we have a winning formula of just picking the opposite of the Puter!!

 

I have to agree with BusterG...I think it would be really interesting to see what those computations for Week 5 dogs would be. If they go 0 for, or even hit just 1, I think you're onto something. Unless of course we misunderstood, and the computer didn't even produce any picks. Either way, keep up the hard work ATC! Your posts are much appreciated...get after those totals!!!

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ATCawsw
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#13
Posted: 9/29/2010 5:49:52 PM

Buster and BTM - interesting theory, let me go back and see what i can do.....

Thanks folks...much love for you all! 

DU - brother....would love to see it, but no matter what I do....Vandy just doesn't have a shot...i'll prolly eat my words now..heheh.  Good luck! 

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ATCawsw
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#14
Posted: 9/29/2010 5:52:23 PM
Oh...forgot to clarify.  There were no Underdog selections this week for the computer, because I have shrunk the "window" for the computer to be able to select a game, that there isn't much wiggle room for a game to fall right into the parameters.  I run many simulations for each formula, and the one it is using right now, has went 4-0 on the year for the underdogs....4 games out of a bazillion that have been played so far. 
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#15
Posted: 9/29/2010 6:55:33 PM
My computer vs yours? Percentages in "my" db show you losing two of the three overs, if not all three. I'll really keep an eye on them. Maybe mine needs tweaking. This will be a good shot to see if mine is flawed vs someone else's.
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#16
Posted: 9/29/2010 7:20:11 PM
appreciate all the work you do, i'm sure you'll got those dogs turned around
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#17
Posted: 9/29/2010 7:34:33 PM
BOL ATC...

Maybe you'll go from ATC underdog, to ATC favorite
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#18
Posted: 9/29/2010 11:31:24 PM
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Gordon Gekko
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#19
Posted: 10/1/2010 7:15:50 PM
GLTu
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#20
Posted: 10/1/2010 7:17:47 PM
gL
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