Messages

Originally Posted by bookieassassin:




prolly so...OU maybe next....

Although I think this is a sound strategy....one that will make you more than you lose in the long run....
Personally will be backing off some week 1 TY.....
because I have had EASILY my worst weeks early the last 3-4 yrs seems like.....(before easily my best weeks)

What I will do now....and hopefully from here on out....
is to EVERY week look for VALUE....and avoid "shortcuts".....like just play favs.....dogs....whatever
     *but of course still pay close attention to season trends....> weeks 1-4 or so still (look to play) strong/dominant teams....> then look to FADE these same teams later......and so on

My week 1 card will look something like this....
     *off top of my head > done little work

CAL -14 or vs Nevada.....
      *back home....finished strong.....QB + weapons back
Pack weak on road.....with "winnable" HG next vs USF
Cal 13-3 ATS run as HF......with (slight) revenge angle from BIG 2010 loss at Nevada....only S Utah next

Nebraska -13' vs S Miss
      *SMiss starting over (6/4 st back .....lose huge QB / HC)......with a bye next......to re-group before CUSA game with EC....Huskers BADLY need big win and nice record as bully

NC St +7 or so vs Tenn
    great dog that matches up well....

OU -28' or so at UTEP
     *Miners ZERO chance of stopping Sooners....Mike back as DC should mean more defensive pride...(they were behind-kickers when he was there last)...

consider.....
Ohio +15 or so at Penn St
Zona -7 or so ? vs Toledo
Miami,O +27' at Ohio St
UNLV +13' ??....vs Minny

USC.....SMU....Boise...Marshall?.....EMich wtf (check out how much they have improved every year).....will be huge on WAZZU at some point....not yet probably   

BA - thanks for the take

I love the Neb pick.    It is in my top 3.   TM will still look ugly, but effective.  I think the loss of Box by S Miss in the biggest impact on this game.   even with Box and a great D, S Miss barely pulled  it off against a marginal Nevada squad.

you know the OU game will start at 9:30 PM CST.  that is late.  the sun bowl will be packed, and the miners will be prepared and put up a fight based on their submarginal talen.  do you think the late start may have an adverse impact on ou covering.  the 4th quarter won's start until probably almost midnight cst.  or do you think BGB Stoops will come out and go bombs away, get up by 30 plus, then wear down UTEP with backups.  I think Whaley and Finch are going to be special in OU's pass first Offense.  I think with M Stoops, the D will be improved.   one positive sign that I saw recently was the sharks for OU (hurst et al) are going more low key.  that tells me that they will be more focussed with less moxie BS.  with mcfarland anchoring the line and word and harris at LB's M Stoops has had an impact.    this game was in my top 3, but I dropped it out for now.   i plan to read the scout ou board early and often and may put this back in the top 3.  what is your take on the late start impacting OU's potential cover at UTEP?

right now, my top 3

Nebraska -13 over S Miss (Lincoln)

LSU -40 over N Texas (BR)

UGA -37 over Buffalo (Athens)

watching

OU -29 over UTEP

N Dame - 14 over Navy (Dublin, Ireland)

UCF -19 over Akron (Akron)

Michigan St. -7 over Boise St. (E Lansing)

I will take a closer look at Cal -14 over Nevada (Berkeley)

Thank you in advance for your follow up!