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Author: [College Football] Topic: Week 1 - Post your plays & back it up! ....
gwjtf send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 8/17/2012 11:40:26 AM
UCLA -15.5 over Rice.  Bruins big advantage in talent & returning experience over Rice and a harder attitude under Mora. Do not believe UCLA will be 'soft' this year;

Mich. St -7 over Boise.  This year's Boise team will be 1/2 as good as previous with only 3 returning offensive starters.  Sparty has the best defense in the Big 10;

Bama - 11.5 over Michigan.  Realizing Michigan is a good team and w/ DR anything can happen, Bama's superiority at the point of attack will cause them to dominate time of possession and pull away in second half for easy DD victory;

Florida - 29 over Bowling Green.  I have my friend Jwheels to thank on this one - he forgot more about UF football than most of us will ever know. Basically, their defense this year has jelled and is deep, and BG doesn't have the athletes to contain their offense - Gators will score at will & dictate when BG does at will;

Ohio St -22.5 over Miami.  First, Miami is not very good, and that's being charitable.  Buckeyes have a lot of talent and maybe the best D1 HC, with apologies to Saban - a coin toss actually.  Anything under 24 is money;

OU -30 over UTEP.  Another spot I like due to overwhelming advantage in athletic talent and 'big game Bob's (what a misnomer!) propensity to run it up when he can to protect/enhance his poll position.  OU should and will dominate a completely inferior team whose coach is on his last year and everyone knows it....

Lotta chalk, but big chalk does well week 1 as most of you know....

GWJTF

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#2
Posted: 8/17/2012 11:44:08 AM
**GAME BREAKDOWN**

TEXAS A&M vs LA TECH    

A&M -8.5
O/U 60

Texas A&M finished last year with a disappointing 7-6 record and they were just 4-9 ATS last year. They lost their best player in Ryan Tannehill to the NFL Draft and are going to struggle to replace him. Currently battling for the spot are redshirt freshman Johnny Manziel, r-Fr Jameill Showers (5 career pass attempts) and freshman Matt Davis. Inexperience will no doubt be a factor for A&M QB's throughout this season, although it may not show as badly until SEC play. On the offensive line, A&M returns 95 career starts. They are very experienced on the O-line which should protect the QB. they also return two good WR's in Ryan Swope and Uzoma Nwachukwu, both had very productive seasons last year. swope had 1207 yds last year and Nwachukwu had 639. A&M has a r-Fr kicker.

On D- A&M loses two 300lb D-Tackles. They also lose three in the secondary that already struggled to defend the pass last year. They should be ok at LB, with Three seniors returning, all with experience. They have a Sophomore Punter.
A&M also has a new coach in Kevin Sumlin, coming over from Houston.

LaTech is returning Sr. QB Colby Cameron, who struggled last year and eventually lost the job to ross Jenkins, who is no longer there. They have a few other guys who will compete to push Cameron, and with the return of 4 quality WR's, the QB play should get much better in 2012. The 4 receivers of mention are Myles White, David Gru, DJ Banks (Tulane Transfer), and Quinton Patton. each of these guys is capable of catching passes for 1000 yards in the WAC this year. This is the best WR group Sonny Dykes has had in three years at La Tech and the best in a while. La La Tech also returns 92 career starts on the O-Line and 9 of the top 10 contributors. The o-line is very experienced and should give the QB time to analyze any Defense A&M throws out there.

La Tech will have a mediocre D-Line, which returns two starters. their secondary will be solid, with the return of Chad Boyd and seniors Jamel Johnson and Dave Clark. This Secondary should be better than last years, although the numbers may not reflect that. The front four are going to struggle to get pressure on the QB.

I really feel like the in-experience of the QB for Texas A&M will keep La Tech very much in this game. La Tech should be able to move the football on offense and should put up points. Both QB's should be protected with veteran O-Lines and drives should not stall because of sacks or pressure picks.  Texas A&M has put up 46,48 and 41 points in their last three season openers. The last time they played La Tech, the spread was 19 in favor of A&M and the final was 48-16 A&M. If the o/u is around 58, i would lean over.

OVER 60...
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#3
Posted: 8/17/2012 11:44:30 AM
Arkansas State vs Oregon OVER 65 ***BREAKDOWN***
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This will be my largest wager of Week 1 and the total comes in a full touchdown lower than i projected it to be. Oregon returns 11 starters overall (6o, 5d) including 65 career starts on the OL (8 of the top 10 back) and some very athletic receivers. I think Oregon will have no issues on offense running their fast paced attack, and their ground game will excel greatly in this matchup with ArkSt.

Defensively Oregon is sporting a very highly touted defensive line, and an average secondary with three of the top 5 guys back. they have very athletic safeties, but are very inexperienced at corner, with two projected sophomores as starters. they have solid special teams units and should have several big plays with this unit on the field.

ArkSt returns 4 yr starter Ryan Aplin at QB, and they are going to look to spread the football around to a very experienced bevy of wide receievers. they have Josh Jarboe, Taylor Stockemer, and some very capable backups that should be able to expose oregons suspect corner play. Ark St's Offensive line is very inexperienced and might struggle to sustain drives after the 1st half, causing short fields and easy 2nd Half oregon touchdowns.

Defensively ark state returns only 4 starters and have alot of holes to fill. they are looking to replace 3 starters on the DL and are using 4 guys who played NJUCO ball last year to do so. at Linebacker, they lose thier top two and their secondary is very inexperienced as they lose 3 all conference DB's. oregon should see some BIG plays in the passing game after they establish an effective run attack.

Initially i really liked arkansas state (projected spread was 28.5, now 33) but i think oregon might overwhelm this team and mistakes and unsustainable drives could lead to a very high scoring day for oregon. I look for the ducks to put up at least 52 points in this game, and if they score as quick as they have the last two years, they might be in the 60's. similar to the game last year vs. nevada, BIG plays, Turnovers, and short fields might lead to a blowout here.

55-19 Oregon WINS

OVER 65
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#4
Posted: 8/17/2012 11:45:42 AM
Arkansas State vs Oregon OVER 65 ***BREAKDOWN***
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This will be my largest wager of Week 1 and the total comes in a full touchdown lower than i projected it to be. Oregon returns 11 starters overall (6o, 5d) including 65 career starts on the OL (8 of the top 10 back) and some very athletic receivers. I think Oregon will have no issues on offense running their fast paced attack, and their ground game will excel greatly in this matchup with ArkSt.

Defensively Oregon is sporting a very highly touted defensive line, and an average secondary with three of the top 5 guys back. they have very athletic safeties, but are very inexperienced at corner, with two projected sophomores as starters. they have solid special teams units and should have several big plays with this unit on the field.

ArkSt returns 4 yr starter Ryan Aplin at QB, and they are going to look to spread the football around to a very experienced bevy of wide receievers. they have Josh Jarboe, Taylor Stockemer, and some very capable backups that should be able to expose oregons suspect corner play. Ark St's Offensive line is very inexperienced and might struggle to sustain drives after the 1st half, causing short fields and easy 2nd Half oregon touchdowns.

Defensively ark state returns only 4 starters and have alot of holes to fill. they are looking to replace 3 starters on the DL and are using 4 guys who played NJUCO ball last year to do so. at Linebacker, they lose thier top two and their secondary is very inexperienced as they lose 3 all conference DB's. oregon should see some BIG plays in the passing game after they establish an effective run attack.

Initially i really liked arkansas state (projected spread was 28.5, now 33) but i think oregon might overwhelm this team and mistakes and unsustainable drives could lead to a very high scoring day for oregon. I look for the ducks to put up at least 52 points in this game, and if they score as quick as they have the last two years, they might be in the 60's. similar to the game last year vs. nevada, BIG plays, Turnovers, and short fields might lead to a blowout here.

55-19 Oregon WINS

OVER 65
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#5
Posted: 8/17/2012 11:57:02 AM
Jdnmoney - Wow!  Huge props ... you should have a website and sell this stuff - excellent analysis my friend.

Can you get the over/under in Vegas on Oregon/ASU?  I completely agree with you, BTW, I am from Arkansas and know for a fact that Mal will put up 21 on the Ducks.  Oregon could cover the 65 almost by themselves on the Red Wolves' D.  Easy money ....

GW
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#6
Posted: 8/17/2012 11:59:29 AM
THIS GAME SHOULD BE SET AT O/U 79

THIS IS MY LARGEST PLAY OF WEEK 1.


i see 14-7 after Q1
i see 31-14 after Q2
i see 45-21 after Q3
i see 55-27 final...

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#7
Posted: 8/17/2012 12:03:49 PM
LETS GET EM THIS YEAR BUDDY,

i am anxious to hear your analysis and who you are wagering on in Wk 1 also.



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#8
Posted: 8/17/2012 12:41:47 PM
SAN JOSE STATE @ STANFORD
Stanford -25.5
o/u 53.5

San Jose St
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San Jose returns 6 starters on offense. they are breaking in a new QB, but havent chosen a starter. the battle includes David Fales (juco), dasmen Stewart (very athletic dual threat QB who is very elusive and fast) and Blake Jurich (only a few attempts last year)

San Jose has physical RB Deloen Eskridge who transfered from the U. of Minn. and produced very sucessful numbers in his 2 years playing for the Goofs. (led team in rushing in 2010 and had almost 1200 career yds in the B10.)

San jose returns a good group of WR led by Noel Grigsby who is a top 25-30 WR in college football. LY he had 89 catches for 889 and he had 882 yds in 2010 as a freshman. they also have chandler jones, jabari carr and a stud TE in Ryan Otten. Ryan otten is an NFL Tight End at 6-5 245lbs and he is very versatile, catching passes for 750 yds LY and contributing in the run game.

san jose returns 66 career starts on the OL (average) and are starting 3 Jrs. and 2 Srs. all with experience. while they dont have a starter over 300 lbs on the OL, this group is quick and should allow for plenty of big running plays around the outside. they are also very good in the screen game.

San jose returns a Jr. Kicker, who was the supplementary kicker last year going 2/5 on FGs but had a net 42.8 punting average. he will be asked to do all of the kicking this year. on kickoffs, he had 8 TBs in 65 Kickoffs. 

Defensively the spartans return 5 on D, and they have a very underrated DL, which should have improved numbers. the Linebacking Corp. should be solid as they return 2nd team WAC LB keith smith, along with their 2nd leading tackler from LY in Vince Buhagiar.

the secondary for SJSU should be as good as last years team who only allowed 221 Pass Yds per game. their top interception guy from last year James Orth ( 4 picks, 50 int ret. yards) is back along with experienced corner ronnie yell.
their punter is also thier placekicker and he avg. 42.8 on the net punting average LY.

Stanford.
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stanford returns 6 starters on offense and 7 on Defense.

they obviously lose andrew luck, and look to replace him with Brett Nottingham. (5-8 LY with a TD pass and 78 yds.) Nottingham is unproven as he only played in garbage time.

stanford used a RB by committee last year, but are going to make Stepfan Taylor the feature back this year. he had 242 carries for 1333 last year and 10 tds.

stanford loses their top 4 pass catchers from last year and their leading returning catcher is their full back ryan Hewett (34 catches, 282 yds. also they return a solid TE in Zach Ertz (27 catches for 343) but this is a very inexperienced unit overall and should have significantly less production with the new QB and i would expect minimal continuity right away.

the offensive line for stanford is down their two best OL from last year and only return 37 career starts (weak). this OL will undoubtably give up more sacks this year and thier run average should suffer as well, as their heaviest OL is 308.

the stanford DL has 2 starters back and should be as productive as they were last season. the LB corp returns Jarek Lancaster and Shayne Skov.  they do lose two of thier top 3 tacklers from LY but should have no problem in the P12 sustaining their defensive numbers, although i look for thier run stopping production to decrease.

the stanford secondary is very inexperienced and they project to start a guy at corner in wayne lyons who has never played a snap in college. they lose a 1st team all P12 corner in Delano howell, and their numbers should be about what they were last year in the secondary ( 61.7% comp. percentage, only 3 picks!!)

stanford returns a senior punter and a very solid sophomore kicker.
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my take on the game:
i truely believe stanford will come back down to reality this year. in this game, san jose should be able to load 8 in the box and dare the new QB to beat them, with inexperienced WR's.  i think stanford will score, but they will be long, methodical drives and some might stall and result in FG's. I think San jose will suprise many this year with a very improved offense that should spread the ball around nicely to 4-5 WR's. ( who should all have 30+ catches as seasons end, even with grigsby getting 90+)

i think the spread is way too high. stanford should score about 35 in this game, but i think sanjose will score enough to cover the number. i think the 1st half will be extremely low scoring and with both teams having solid punters, field position will be at a premium.

I like San Jose State +25.5 in this matchup and will call for a 35-16 final.

SJSU +25.5
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#9
Posted: 8/17/2012 12:51:23 PM
you would think that the over in Oregon is great bet BUT Arky St. is an average team, i doubt they put up more than 10-14 on Oregon, which has their best defense there in years.  Also, Oregon breaks in new qb, their strength is in their backfield which will keep the clocking running.  No reason or need to be too flashy in this game.  I think you need either a defensive td or special teams score to hit the over..48-13 Ducks
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#10
Posted: 8/17/2012 1:03:47 PM
don't outthink the room Nicky,

the over is the play, Oregon will score at will and ark st will score 19+
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#11
Posted: 8/17/2012 1:36:11 PM
lol, you are prolly right but one must consider all angles...your angle does sound more likely..gl!
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#12
Posted: 8/17/2012 2:18:18 PM
JD we are on same plays haha let's get it 
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#13
Posted: 8/17/2012 4:15:09 PM

JD - you are correct here.  ASU will score 3 Tds on Oregaon.  I said it. I'll eat crow if I'm wrong.  Why?  Chip doesn't care (that much) if the opponent scores.. I don't care what he says on ESPN, as long as he wins, preferably by a big margin, he's fine.  Can't blame him on that.

Gus, OTOH, his whole career is predicated on offense scoring no matter what.  And he is smart enough to do it.  Ar State will score on Oregon -- more than any of us think they will.  But they cannot stop Oregon; their defense will not be able to handle Oregon's speed. So the over is the correct play & and you are smart to make it your top pick.

My only question is (to you or anyone on covers), can you get the over in Vegas?  :)

GWJTF

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#14
Posted: 8/17/2012 4:24:39 PM
aug 20 th they will be released
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#15
Posted: 8/17/2012 4:27:20 PM
very strong card. I will most likely play each one except Florida. I just dont like their QB situation but I think at worst this card goes 5-1 with FL as the only non cover. I was kinda nervous about Oklahomas offensive line personally and they just had another DLineman get suspended indefinately this season but hey at the end of the day its still UTEP and they should put a supreme behind whoopin on them week 1. UCLA will be stoked to whoop some behind under Jim Mora. Also loving the Oregon over courtesy to JDN for his extremely accurate prediction in that game. Braxton Miller will step up to the plate week 1 and I think that line may be a tad bit low. ANything under 24 should be good money  BOL
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#16
Posted: 8/17/2012 8:42:09 PM

What's your card Trey?  Have you posted?  Respect to you ....:)

GW

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#17
Posted: 8/18/2012 1:50:40 AM
love that Arky St - Oregon Over and SJSU


GL on the plays
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#18
Posted: 8/18/2012 9:53:15 AM
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#19
Posted: 8/18/2012 5:34:00 PM

what IS the opening week ATS record of chalk teams the past 5 years?

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#20
Posted: 8/18/2012 6:05:52 PM
go look it up and let us know
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#21
Posted: 8/19/2012 11:50:36 PM
very well:  147-126, not exactly overwhelming.
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#22
Posted: 8/20/2012 3:46:48 AM

Redbook - I don't know how you got that stat but major props to you for getting it! -- I was going anectdotally (is that a word?:)

What is the ATS record of Week 1 chalk of 30 points or more (over any time period greater than 5 years from today)?  If you have access to that stat, please provide as I am confident it will be more compelling than overall chalk.

BIG chalk - week 1 - is money IMHO....

GWJTF

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