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Author: [College Football] Topic: 2012 College Football Preseason Discussion
jdnmoney send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#1
Posted: 4/5/2012 9:57:40 PM
LY: 83-60 ATS 58.05% 

previous threads:
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101202797

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101189238


Last year I really hit stride picking ATS at 58.05% on the year. I had some really bad beats and some really great wins, and had a really fun time wagering on NCAA college football last year.

This year, i am looking to start some really good discussions and really stay on top of the bookies during the off-season. I have also found some teams that i plan on fading most of the season, thinking they will be over valued. Some that i have found are...
  • Baylor (RG3 was so very valuable, and losing him, kendal wright and others is going to hurt greatly.)
  • West Virginia (very overvalued IMO, at least in week 1. i think Marshall plays them really, really tough. )
  • LSU (overvalued against the spread)
  • Notre Dame (more analysis on them later this summer)
There are also some teams that i think will succeed greatly this year due to a multitude of circumstances. these teams would include squads like...
  • Nebraska (2nd year in the B10 should really benefit the 'skers in 2012. getting some experience and familiarity against the B10 should allow bo and the Defensive crew to really flex their muscles. plus, they received addition by subtraction as Carl Pelini is not their anymore, as he went to become head coach at FAU.)
  • Auburn (so very athletic, if they get adequate QB play this year they could be in the running for the SEC title)
  • Michigan (I am so very interested to see how they play against Bama in wk 1. i will be in attendance, but if they get past Bama they COULD run the table in the B10. 10-2 is staring them right in the face IMO. Their offense can be unstoppable if they are clicking the right way. but what impresses me the most is how their defense improved greatly in just one season with their new d-coordinator. i think MU's defense will be stellar again this year.)
  • Washington State (Mike Leach was such a wonderful hire for the cougs IMO. they should be able to win all 3 non conference games and also get Colorado, California, and UCLA at home. if they can win against Oregon State or Utah, and maybe get the Apple Cup game, Wazzu could end up a serious 8-4 this year. i would love if vegas released a season Win total on the cougs, because i would hammer the over. )

TO BE CONTINUED...
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#2
Posted: 4/5/2012 10:11:45 PM
the lines that i have for week one are as follows for CFB.

South Carolina @ Vanderbilt (+10)
Boise @ Michigan St (-6.5)
Michigan @ Alabama (-14.5) at Cowboys Stadium
Marshall @ W. Virginia (-21.5)
Auburn @ Clemson (-4.5) at Atlanta
So. Miss @ Nebraska (-12)
Navy @ Notre Dame (-13.5) @ Ireland


i really like Michigan +14.5, I cannot see this game being a blowout. the way i see it, if Michigan scores 10 points they will keep this within the number. I think the scoring will be low, and michigan should have a really good chance to win with as much as Bama is losing on Defense, along with losing Trent Richardson and others on offense.


Like i previously mentioned, i love Marshall +21.5. I am not sure why this line is as inflated as it is right now. i really think marshall will have alot of momentum going into next year, after winning their bowl game against FIU. in last years game vs. WVU, marshal played really well other than the 2nd Quarter. the game was actually shortened due to lightning and was only about 47 minutes long. i have already locked in here, but i grabbed the hook.


Marshall +22


i really think this line should be 12, so i placed a half a unit on this spread right now.
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#3
Posted: 4/5/2012 10:50:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jdnmoney:

the lines that i have for week one are as follows for CFB.

South Carolina @ Vanderbilt (+10)
Boise @ Michigan St (-6.5)
Michigan @ Alabama (-14.5) at Cowboys Stadium
Marshall @ W. Virginia (-21.5)
Auburn @ Clemson (-4.5) at Atlanta
So. Miss @ Nebraska (-12)
Navy @ Notre Dame (-13.5) @ Ireland


i really like Michigan +14.5, I cannot see this game being a blowout. the way i see it, if Michigan scores 10 points they will keep this within the number. I think the scoring will be low, and michigan should have a really good chance to win with as much as Bama is losing on Defense, along with losing Trent Richardson and others on offense.


Like i previously mentioned, i love Marshall +21.5. I am not sure why this line is as inflated as it is right now. i really think marshall will have alot of momentum going into next year, after winning their bowl game against FIU. in last years game vs. WVU, marshal played really well other than the 2nd Quarter. the game was actually shortened due to lightning and was only about 47 minutes long. i have already locked in here, but i grabbed the hook.


Marshall +22


i really think this line should be 12, so i placed a half a unit on this spread right now.


Michigan is overrated yet again. Alabama lose a ton of guys but they are far more talented than the wolverines. The best O-line in the nation returns everyone except for Center William Vlachos; all american Barrett Jones will be expecting to fill in. If you force Robinson to throw the ball then this game might become the 2011 Captial one bowl; where Michigan State lost 49-7 and had 2 quarterbacks injured. 14.5 points seems nice but the score should be something along the lines of 40-13.
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#4
Posted: 4/5/2012 11:37:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Laroja:



Michigan is overrated yet again. Alabama lose a ton of guys but they are far more talented than the wolverines. The best O-line in the nation returns everyone except for Center William Vlachos; all american Barrett Jones will be expecting to fill in. If you force Robinson to throw the ball then this game might become the 2011 Captial one bowl; where Michigan State lost 49-7 and had 2 quarterbacks injured. 14.5 points seems nice but the score should be something along the lines of 40-13.



I appreciate the input, i really do Laroja. im just not prepared to say Bama is going to be as strong next year as they were last year. I just cannot see michigan getting spanked. i think they are going to be really good this year, and it shouldnt be a surprise.
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#5
Posted: 4/6/2012 9:24:54 AM

Its true Bama lost alot, especially on defense, but the thing about it is that the people stepping in to fill their shoes isn't green...and has seen alot of playing time... Bama's defense will once again be one of the best in the nation

Not saying that i would lay the 14.5, but definitely wouldn't want to take it either.... Man I wish the season kicked off tomorrow...

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#6
Posted: 4/6/2012 2:13:10 PM
-Michigan is returning 15-16
-Alabama is returning 13?
-Denard can't throw well and if you remember VT was down 2 CB's to injury. Seriously, 9/21 for 117 Yards.
-Alabama loses 5+ NFL talent players
-Alabama's Offense seems like it will take the next step. Their backups got tons of play experience. I think every one of their receivers is 4-5 star talent
-I always bet by QB's and DEFENSE. While Denard will pull BS out of thin air vs. Notre Dame and slow Big 10 D's ... it won't work vs. SEC.

I'd take Bama up to 21.

I love that Nebraska pick, going to run it through my spreadsheet. I think So Miss is only returning 13 or so with a new QB. 

I'm going to stay away from WV & Marshall. It could be close or it could easily turn into that Clemson game.

Can't wait. 

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#7
Posted: 4/6/2012 3:22:30 PM
Be careful with Nebraska.. their in conference schedule is just brutal:  Wisky, @OSU, UM, @MSU, PSU, @Iowa... hard to see them any better than 9-3 overall with that schedule..

In terms of UM, they lose 3/4 of their DL, which was the main reason their D was so successful.. Bama also returns 4/5 on the OL... Overall, UM finished #1 in recovering opponents fumbles on the season at over 75%.. that type of success will not duplicate in 2012.. they were lucky to beat ND, VT and more or less OSU... UM went 1-2 vs B10 teams above 6-6 in the Reg Season (W vs Nebraska, L vs MSU, L vs Iowa).. UM also lost both games on the road vs quasi good teams in MSU/Iowa and struggled to beat NW..

Now, add in Bama, @ND (night game), @Neb, @OSU(last game for Buckeyes) + Iowa, MSU, Air Force?  8-4 sounds about right..

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#8
Posted: 4/6/2012 4:38:01 PM
I'm currently thinking about WEEK 1 with NEBRASKA

so miss @ NEB 
-so miss only returning 12
-so miss new QB
-so miss has new coach

The first few weeks l like the heavy favorites (within reason until the opening lines come out)
mich vs. ALA (I'll take BAMA up to 21)
hawaii @ USC (I like USC +50 or so; I have this memphis/Miss St gut feeling)
north texas @ LSU
OKLAHOMA @ utep (i think it's +50; utep is just all around bad and returning only 12)


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#9
Posted: 4/6/2012 8:21:22 PM
147 days?


Damn I cant wait.


Already deep into my breakdown.

I.....WE Have a sickness



Good to see everybody
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#10
Posted: 4/7/2012 1:18:29 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Laroja:



Michigan is overrated yet again. Alabama lose a ton of guys but they are far more talented than the wolverines. The best O-line in the nation returns everyone except for Center William Vlachos; all american Barrett Jones will be expecting to fill in. If you force Robinson to throw the ball then this game might become the 2011 Captial one bowl; where Michigan State lost 49-7 and had 2 quarterbacks injured. 14.5 points seems nice but the score should be something along the lines of 40-13.

I think 40-13 is pretty close to what we'll see in this game except I think Michigan has virtually no shot to score 13.  Here is a very simplistic breakdown of this game.

Will Michigan be able to run the ball against Bama's D - Not a chance

Will Michigan be able to throw the ball against Bama's D - Not a chance

Will Alabama be able to run the ball against Michigan's D - Yes, pretty much at will.

Will Alabama be able to throw the ball against Michigan's D - Yes, pretty much at will.

This game will not be competitive.

 

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#11
Posted: 4/7/2012 1:33:52 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by SatNightFever05:

Bama also returns 4/5 on the OL

The one guy the preseason services are counting as Alabama's non-returnee is Cyrus Kouandjio who actually was the starting left tackle before he was injured.  Moreover, Kouandjio is by far the most talented offensive lineman on the team.  He will be a 3-years in college and then top 10 NFL draft pick guy.  He is the best left tackle in college football.

Last preseason I said that Alabama's defense would go down as one of the greatest in college football history.  That prediction came to fruition.  This season it'll be Alabama's offense line that will garner that type of lofty expectation.  If they stay healthy, it will be one of the greatest offensive lines in college football history with at least 3 of them being stone-cold locks to be drafted in the 1st round.

 

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#12
Posted: 4/7/2012 8:26:03 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

I think 40-13 is pretty close to what we'll see in this game except I think Michigan has virtually no shot to score 13.  Here is a very simplistic breakdown of this game.

Will Michigan be able to run the ball against Bama's D - Not a chance

Will Michigan be able to throw the ball against Bama's D - Not a chance

Will Alabama be able to run the ball against Michigan's D - Yes, pretty much at will.

Will Alabama be able to throw the ball against Michigan's D - Yes, pretty much at will.

This game will not be competitive.

 

jimmy....... this sounds much like your thoughts on Boise / Georgia game last year.

Look im not busting your balls bro. Im just thinking if Michigan TT is 13..... Give me the damn over. Just like Boise last year, this Michigan team will be very expereienced at the skill position.

Now Do I think they will win like I thought Boise would destroy Georgia?? NO
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#13
Posted: 4/7/2012 2:26:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Boom_Boom:

jimmy....... this sounds much like your thoughts on Boise / Georgia game last year.

Look im not busting your balls bro. Im just thinking if Michigan TT is 13..... Give me the damn over. Just like Boise last year, this Michigan team will be very expereienced at the skill position.

Now Do I think they will win like I thought Boise would destroy Georgia?? NO


- Kellen Moore 75% passer vs Denard Robinson 55% passer (49% neutral/road)

Anything can happen on Saturday but I think I'll take my chances with Alabama. Better D. Better OL. Better overall talent. Much better passing QB. (Just look at what Saban has done to running QB's over the years...) and I'd have to give the Coaching angle to Saban until proven otherwise. 


JDN- of the first few lines after running a bunch of numbers, returning players, etc.
Notre Dame and Nebraska look pretty tempting for Week 1. 

BC

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#14
Posted: 4/16/2012 3:12:57 PM
good discussion in the college football forum...all the regulars are here...good read guys 
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#15
Posted: 6/10/2012 5:18:34 PM
Just dove into the Phil Steele CFB preview.
82 days away, no big deal. 

Games that i am interested in for wk 1. (LINE GUESSES)


  • La Tech @ Texas A&M      LaTech+16 O/U 58
  • Marshall @ W. Va- Already locked in Marshall +22 on 5Dimes (now at 20.5)
  • W. Michigan @ Illinois      WMU +12.5, O/U 52.5
  • UCF @ Akron      UCF-18 O/U 47
  • Ark St @ Oregon     DoubleUp4Life has a guess of 41. I respectfully disagree. I would LOVE to see 41, because i think this game will be kept within 20-25, something like 48-28. I really  think the line is closer to Ark St +26.5 O/U 71.5
  • Toledo @ Arizona     TOL+9 O/U 61
  • Washington St @ BYU     WSU +10.5 O/U 55.5


Cannot wait for August 30th  


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#16
Posted: 6/10/2012 6:00:14 PM
**GAME BREAKDOWN**

TEXAS A&M vs LA TECH      *Guesing A&M -16, o/u 58*

Texas A&M finished last year with a disappointing 7-6 record and they were just 4-9 ATS last year. They lost their best player in Ryan Tannehill to the NFL Draft and are going to struggle to replace him. Currently battling for the spot are redshirt freshman Johnny Manziel, r-Fr Jameill Showers (5 career pass attempts) and freshman Matt Davis. Inexperience will no doubt be a factor for A&M QB's throughout this season, although it may not show as badly until SEC play. On the offensive line, A&M returns 95 career starts. They are very experienced on the O-line which should protect the QB. they also return two good WR's in Ryan Swope and Uzoma Nwachukwu, both had very productive seasons last year. swope had 1207 yds last year and Nwachukwu had 639. A&M has a r-Fr kicker.

On D- A&M loses two 300lb D-Tackles. They also lose three in the secondary that already struggled to defend the pass last year. They should be ok at LB, with Three seniors returning, all with experience. They have a Sophomore Punter.
A&M also has a new coach in Kevin Sumlin, coming over from Houston.

LaTech is returning Sr. QB Colby Cameron, who struggled last year and eventually lost the job to ross Jenkins, who is no longer there. They have a few other guys who will compete to push Cameron, and with the return of 4 quality WR's, the QB play should get much better in 2012. The 4 receivers of mention are Myles White, David Gru, DJ Banks (Tulane Transfer), and Quinton Patton. each of these guys is capable of catching passes for 1000 yards in the WAC this year. This is the best WR group Sonny Dykes has had in three years at La Tech and the best in a while. La La Tech also returns 92 career starts on the O-Line and 9 of the top 10 contributors. The o-line is very experienced and should give the QB time to analyze any Defense A&M throws out there.

La Tech will have a mediocre D-Line, which returns two starters. their secondary will be solid, with the return of Chad Boyd and seniors Jamel Johnson and Dave Clark. This Secondary should be better than last years, although the numbers may not reflect that. The front four are going to struggle to get pressure on the QB.

I really feel like the in-experience of the QB for Texas A&M will keep La Tech very much in this game. La Tech should be able to move the football on offense and should put up points. Both QB's should be protected with veteran O-Lines and drives should not stall because of sacks or pressure picks.  Texas A&M has put up 46,48 and 41 points in their last three season openers. The last time they played La Tech, the spread was 19 in favor of A&M and the final was 48-16 A&M. If the o/u is around 58, i would lean over.


      
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#17
Posted: 6/10/2012 8:15:30 PM
 jd
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#18
Posted: 6/10/2012 10:12:25 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Boom_Boom:

jimmy....... this sounds much like your thoughts on Boise / Georgia game last year.

Look im not busting your balls bro. Im just thinking if Michigan TT is 13..... Give me the damn over. Just like Boise last year, this Michigan team will be very expereienced at the skill position.

Now Do I think they will win like I thought Boise would destroy Georgia?? NO

The basis of my Georgia/Bosie analysis was that Georgia was a much improved team, not that Boise wasn't a good team.  Based on the expected improvement I predicted and bet that the Dawgs would win the SEC East which in fact they did.  I said that before I saw Phil's magazine wherein he largely mirrored my thoughts.

Both the Boise prediction and the prediction that Georgia would win the SEC East was based on the fact that Georgia was entering their second year under Todd Grantham's 3-4 defense, and that Georgia had added the necessary pieces to effctively run that defense in the offseason.  I was very clear about this in my extensive writings on that game.  I also liked the fact Georgia was getting more than a field goal in what was essentially a home game, and I felt that Georgia had a lot to prove coming off of dismal performance against Central Florida in their bowl game.

Ultimately gambling is all about finding value, and I felt the value was on the Georgia side of the ledger.  Moreover, as I mentioned above, I explain extensively why I felt that way.  Although I lost the bet, I think my overall analysis of Georgia proved to be spot on.  The bottom line was that Georgia was just too raw in the first game.  Had that game been played at the end of the season, I'm confident it would have played out much closer to what I had predicted.

Lastly, I went 9 & 2 last season in week 1 and made a truckload of money.  Also, for the first time in about 20 years of betting I did not have a single losing week.  I came very close a few times, but I bailed myself out with the late game each time.

My only losses in Week 1 last season were the Georgia and Maryland games, and Maryland lost the cover on a ridiculous fluke play on the last play of the game.  It was probably my worst beat of the year.

With all of that said, the Alabama/Michigan game bears no resemblence to the Georgia/Boise game from last season.

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#19
Posted: 6/11/2012 12:00:06 AM

When analysing Alabama most posters rely heavily on the preseason magazines (and rightly so - I do as well for other teams), and every year I try to bring the board a balanced assessment of the Alabama program.

I also realize that many paosters have an innate hatres towards Alabama (and some just all things SEC).  I understand that.  If I were a fan of a non-SEC team, I'd probably feel exactly the same way.  In other words, as a college football fan I think that is a completely rational emotion, and there is nothing wrong with that.

Be that as it may, we must decide if we are going to strive to be success gamblers or fans.  Are we going to let our homerisms and biases adversely effect our bottom line???  I suspect that even some of the best gamblers still allow their emotions steer them into bad decisions, and I could very well be guilty myself.  But for those of you who are betting on Alabama's demise with real money, I suggest you tread lightly because that is not likely to happen as long as Nick Saban is the head coach.  I know that rubs some people the wrong way, but as H.L. Menken once said, "It is the nature of the human species to reject what is true but unpleassant, and to embrace what is obviously false but comforting."

In my post that follows, without doing a full Alabama writeup (which I do every season after watching their last scrimmage in the fall), I'll give you a basic overview of what you need to know.  I think Bunnychow's post above is pretty much on point.

 

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#20
Posted: 6/11/2012 1:14:54 AM

jimmy

thank you for your perspective.  you are a valued capper here.

UCF @ Akron UCF-18 O/U 47

When you get a chance, I would like your perspective.   According to P Steele, his power ratings have the spread at 28.  I think that is too high.   I play 3 games a week.   UCF is one of my targets right now.    UCF seems to have a chip on its shoulders.  According to Lindy's UCF is top 40, Steele top 20, and Athlon 66th,but the top ranked team in CUSA.  Akron of course is bottom 5 or at best bottom 10 with the addition of the 4 new patsy's.  UCF D is suppose to be talented, and supposedly if they can find some good WR's, could be a solid team this year.   Do you think they will cover (assuming a 18-20 point spread) against a bad but possibly improving T Bowden coached Akron Zip squad...

The other two games I like right now are...

LSU -43 over N Texas (LSU Home Team - kickoff 12 noon)

Oklahoma -30 over UTEP (UTEP Home Team time TBD)

The UCF v Akron game is at night.

I am watching 17 other games, but these are best 3 right now.  Thank you in advance for your thoughts...

 

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#21
Posted: 6/11/2012 5:30:55 AM
Akron is pretty much a D 2 team playing D1 Football.
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#22
Posted: 6/11/2012 11:26:16 AM
i think akron can win 3-4 games this year but not the UCF game. Akron has to improve their play under bowden
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#23
Posted: 6/11/2012 11:58:57 AM
Apparently Alabama is a 6.5 fav on the road against Arkansas according to the Golden Nugget. Lol what a joke line, way too much respect for the NC's.Submit
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#24
Posted: 6/11/2012 12:25:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

jimmy

thank you for your perspective.  you are a valued capper here.

UCF @ Akron UCF-18 O/U 47

When you get a chance, I would like your perspective.   According to P Steele, his power ratings have the spread at 28.  I think that is too high.   I play 3 games a week.   UCF is one of my targets right now.    UCF seems to have a chip on its shoulders.  According to Lindy's UCF is top 40, Steele top 20, and Athlon 66th,but the top ranked team in CUSA.  Akron of course is bottom 5 or at best bottom 10 with the addition of the 4 new patsy's.  UCF D is suppose to be talented, and supposedly if they can find some good WR's, could be a solid team this year.   Do you think they will cover (assuming a 18-20 point spread) against a bad but possibly improving T Bowden coached Akron Zip squad...

The other two games I like right now are...

LSU -43 over N Texas (LSU Home Team - kickoff 12 noon)

Oklahoma -30 over UTEP (UTEP Home Team time TBD)

The UCF v Akron game is at night.

I am watching 17 other games, but these are best 3 right now.  Thank you in advance for your thoughts...

 




i dont think we will see UCF favored by 28 on the road to open week one. remember, their defense is really good, BUT their offense struggled to score several games last year and they did get inconsistant QB play, even in CUSA. i think 17-19 will be the number. i think this will be another year for akron where they struggle to score, and they should see a PPG avg. of no more than 14 this year.

again, its all speculation at this point until the lines come out, but i think we see UCF take control on defense, maybe even pitch a shutout, in a really low scoring contest.

IMO, 24-3 not out of the question, but more like 31-7.

Akron is severely outclassed again this year, they should struggle to win 3 games.



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#25
Posted: 6/11/2012 12:29:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

jimmy

thank you for your perspective.  you are a valued capper here.

UCF @ Akron UCF-18 O/U 47

When you get a chance, I would like your perspective.   According to P Steele, his power ratings have the spread at 28.  I think that is too high.   I play 3 games a week.   UCF is one of my targets right now.    UCF seems to have a chip on its shoulders.  According to Lindy's UCF is top 40, Steele top 20, and Athlon 66th,but the top ranked team in CUSA.  Akron of course is bottom 5 or at best bottom 10 with the addition of the 4 new patsy's.  UCF D is suppose to be talented, and supposedly if they can find some good WR's, could be a solid team this year.   Do you think they will cover (assuming a 18-20 point spread) against a bad but possibly improving T Bowden coached Akron Zip squad...

The other two games I like right now are...

LSU -43 over N Texas (LSU Home Team - kickoff 12 noon)

Oklahoma -30 over UTEP (UTEP Home Team time TBD)

The UCF v Akron game is at night.

I am watching 17 other games, but these are best 3 right now.  Thank you in advance for your thoughts...

 





Also, i would never lay that many points with LSU. too many times, including one of my biggest bets of the year last year for the underdog, LSU is given way too many points. LY they were 42.5 fav's against W. Ky. and won 42-9, but scored 3 times in the 4th. the spread was never in doubt.

lets put it this way. 45-3 and you lose your bet. much better spots on the board IMO. esp. for a team that struggles so badly on offense.


Oklahoma vs utep, you might have something their. much better position for Ou vs a hogwash UTEP squad. and -30 is much easier to cover than -43.
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