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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: WBC sloppy lines = opportunity
overnighter send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#51
Posted: 3/10/2009 7:18:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ace77:

GL Iggy


Cuba/Oz should have a decent chance of going over
Thanks Ace. Glad I bet early @10.5, its up to 12 now at Pinnacle
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#52
Posted: 3/11/2009 3:00:28 AM
Tues- 1-3 -2.5 units
WBC overall 9-7 +10.5 units

Not the best of days, but The Netherlands helped stop an ofer and stemmed a lot of bleeding with a 560 payout. Got caught in no mans land with Oz. Gotta say though we are watching some great baseball and I have to give Australia a lot of props. These guys are serious. And the Netherlands? Can they do it again?. That was a great game no matter who you back.
Back later with some early leans
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#53
Posted: 3/11/2009 4:29:31 AM
"Just an old fashioned love song
Coming down in three part harmony"

Yes its another Three Dog Night. Only moneylines @ Pinnacle so playing 1 unit on each. Numbers are not as favourable. Need two to profit, but I love dogs.

Ven +280
Neth +362
Aus +265

Looking for a total in the Neth/PR game thinking under. Also looking for info about pitching restrictions. Anyone know anything? Apparently there is some rule requiring four days off if you threw X # of pitches in X# of games. If I find an answer I'll post it. Also looking for info on stadium shifts and dimensions. That stadium in Mexico was a shoebox, especially in right. On the other hand the stadium in Puerto Rico has a massive outfielde. I kinda felt bad for the Dominicans tonight as they watched all these balls die in Center - Left.
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#54
Posted: 3/11/2009 4:32:43 AM
I would sit on all ml dogs til tomorrow if you want to get a better price
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#55
Posted: 3/11/2009 4:38:58 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by iggy0865:

"Just an old fashioned love song
Coming down in three part harmony"

Yes its another Three Dog Night. Only moneylines @ Pinnacle so playing 1 unit on each. Numbers are not as favourable. Need two to profit, but I love dogs.

Ven +280
Neth +362
Aus +265

Looking for a total in the Neth/PR game thinking under. Also looking for info about pitching restrictions. Anyone know anything? Apparently there is some rule requiring four days off if you threw X # of pitches in X# of games. If I find an answer I'll post it. Also looking for info on stadium shifts and dimensions. That stadium in Mexico was a shoebox, especially in right. On the other hand the stadium in Puerto Rico has a massive outfielde. I kinda felt bad for the Dominicans tonight as they watched all these balls die in Center - Left.


Some rules:

A pitcher cannot pitch until

  1. a minimum of three days have passed since he last pitched, if he threw 50 or more pitches when he last pitched.
  2. a minimum of one day has passed since he last pitched, if he threw 30 or more pitches when he last pitched.
  3. a minimum of one day has passed since any second consecutive day on which the pitcher pitched.

A pitcher cannot pitch more than

  1. 70 pitches per game in Round One of the tournament.
  2. 85 pitches per game in Round Two of the tournament.
  3. 100 pitches per game in the Semifinals and Final of the tournament.
  • A pitcher can still finish a batter's plate appearance even if the limit is reached, but must come out after completing the plate appearance.

A game will be a called game if the leading team is ahead by

  1. 10 or more runs when the opposing team has batted in at least seven innings.
  2. 15 or more runs when the opposing team has batted in at least five innings.

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#56
Posted: 3/11/2009 5:05:22 AM
Found this but its from 2006. I think the numbers have been upped slightly (65 pitch vount to 70) but its prolly an accurate guideline. The next question is, which teams are most affected by this and how?

Q: What are the pitcher use limitations of the tournament?
A: A pitcher must:

  • Not pitch until a minimum of four days have passed since he last pitched, if he threw 50 or more pitches when he last pitched;
  • Not pitch until a minimum of one day has passed since he last pitched, if he threw 30 or more pitches when he last pitched;
  • Not pitch until a minimum of one day has passed since any second consecutive day on which the pitcher pitched; and
  • Throw no more than:
    • 65 pitches per game in Round One of the tournament;
    • 80 pitches per game in Round Two of the tournament; and
    • 95 pitches per game in the Semifinals and Final of the tournament.

    Note: A pitcher may exceed the maximum per-game limits in order to complete a batter's plate appearance.


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#57
Posted: 3/11/2009 5:09:25 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by meser:



Some rules:

A pitcher cannot pitch until

  1. a minimum of three days have passed since he last pitched, if he threw 50 or more pitches when he last pitched.
  2. a minimum of one day has passed since he last pitched, if he threw 30 or more pitches when he last pitched.
  3. a minimum of one day has passed since any second consecutive day on which the pitcher pitched.

A pitcher cannot pitch more than

  1. 70 pitches per game in Round One of the tournament.
  2. 85 pitches per game in Round Two of the tournament.
  3. 100 pitches per game in the Semifinals and Final of the tournament.
  • A pitcher can still finish a batter's plate appearance even if the limit is reached, but must come out after completing the plate appearance.

A game will be a called game if the leading team is ahead by

  1. 10 or more runs when the opposing team has batted in at least seven innings.
  2. 15 or more runs when the opposing team has batted in at least five innings.

TY meser. Didn't see your post, b4 I posted. Breakem, you may be right, but I already locked in 3 small plays. We'll see where the market goes, but I suspect I should have waited. Live and learn.
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#58
Posted: 3/11/2009 5:54:22 AM
Early market moves are towards the dogs @ Pinnacle. Dog price has gone down 5pts across the board.
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#59
Posted: 3/11/2009 5:55:48 AM
Still no totals or runlines @ Pinnacle, anyone seeing anything?
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#60
Posted: 3/11/2009 6:18:48 AM
Looking ahead a bit these last games of the first round are virtually meaningless. For instance, both Venezuela and the US are through, and the game tonight only determines an unknown opponent. The exception to this is the Mexico/Australia winner vs. Cuba game. The loser of this game gets Korea. The winner gets Japan. With all due respect to the Koreans, I would prefer to avoid Japan. Remember Japan pounded Korea 14-2 when it mattered and lost 1-0 in this last meaningless game. Look for a sub par effort from the Cubans, especially if the giddy Australians can beat Mexico.
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#61
Posted: 3/11/2009 7:35:17 AM
Still,nothing at Pinnacle. Mebbe they no post totals or runlines? If you see anything please post.
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#62
Posted: 3/11/2009 8:43:02 AM
No lines at other bookies either.
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#63
Posted: 3/11/2009 9:51:34 AM
run lines here in asia, amon-re888.com
 
neth vs pr 9.0
 
vene vs usa 12.0
 
mex vs aust 11.5
 
any leans?
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#64
Posted: 3/11/2009 5:16:26 PM
locked in Neth +2.5 2units. Looks to be a low scoring game in a ballpark where homeruns go to die.
Dogs on moneyline across the board.
Back with more soon.
GLA
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#65
Posted: 3/11/2009 6:13:21 PM
Locked in 1 unit on the under 11 in the Ven-US game. This is a weird game, as it means very little.
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#66
Posted: 3/11/2009 9:50:00 PM
Late add- Mex/Aus over 11.5 2 units
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#67
Posted: 3/12/2009 12:06:23 AM
Weds 3-3 + 2 units
WBC overall 12-10 +12.5 units, assuming Oz does not make a miraculous comeback.
Thinking about an over/under play tomorrow. The Mexico/Cuba game means almost nothing.
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#68
Posted: 3/12/2009 1:18:57 AM
One thing's for sure......prior games between two countries in this year's WBC mean nothing when trying to figure out the next game between them.

It's bi-polar!
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#69
Posted: 3/12/2009 4:39:15 AM
tom, under mex/ cuban
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#70
Posted: 3/12/2009 2:15:43 PM
yeah, leaning under. thinking about a small play on Mex as I like the number +236
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#71
Posted: 3/12/2009 5:32:37 PM
Lets go Mexico locked in 2 units on each.
Under 11
Mexico runline +2
Mexico moneyline +236

Remember- winner gets Japan next.
GLA
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#72
Posted: 3/13/2009 5:58:25 AM
END ROUND 1 Ouch.
0-3 - 6 Units.
WBC overall 12 -13 +6.5 units.
Thank god I hit some moneyline dogs to keep me ahead moneywise, with a sub .500 record after the first round. Maybe a little overconfident towards the end, so got the inevitable girl slap from the gods. Or maybe its all just dumb luck, and I'm just fortunate to get out of the first round ahead. Nonetheless, I still say if you can go 12 -13 and be ahead, that the round one lines ARE SLOPPY. You may notice that I was more successful in the early going and the graph went downward as things progressed. As the lines tightened my performance dropped. I'm gonna learn from that , get behind the mule, and start doing some serious handicapping. We are now able to take a semi serious look at numbers and come to an evaluation based on a tiny statistical result. The age of the "Sloppy Line" is over. Or under, I don't freakin know.

Tonight was ugly, but I haven't shed a tear since Terry Fox failed to run past Thunder Bay. Its time to cowboy up. The 2nd round will be more conventional, and much less Wild Wild West. I'm thinking that the best value will be in unders early in the 2nd as the games tighten and the market may be a little slow to adjust to the heightened quality of the teams, the opportunity of Korea and Japan,and to a smaller degree The USA and Venezuela to rest their teams. The Cuban team will be more wowed by their surroundings, and this may also affect the Korean team. The Dutch will be the most distracted by this factor, combined with media attention. Right now, I like the US and Japan, but thats not saying much. Who doesen't like thos two teams?

Will start a new thread for the 2nd round, and please discuss. I would really love to hear more about what the people who read this think. It is the way to learning.

Thanks to all who posted here, and I hope to hear from you in Round 2!
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