| Author: |
[MLB Betting] Topic: Under & Over Valued Pitchers |
|
mylife23 |
RSI   View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 738
Location: California |
#26 Posted: 3/25/2012 5:20:10 PM 
|
|
quote |
|
Spartacus10 |
RSI  |
Captain
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 5009
Location: Ontario |
#27 Posted: 4/2/2012 3:41:16 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by GiLmo574: With overvalued pitchers, it's easy to throw in CC, or Doc Halladay, or Verlander, and maybe a couple others, who will 7 out of 10 games open up @ -200 or higher.
For me, I will never lay that much juice.
Some good undervalue pitchers - basically anybody on the Oakland A's roster. Since their offense is pathetic 5 days out of the week, there best pitcher (like Cahill the 1st half of the season) would be a +120 dog or more. You also had Gio Gonzales, Brandon McCarthy and even Morosco...
The same with the Miami Marlins and San Diego Padres, too. This year, they won't be as undervalued with the addition of Jose Reyes to the Marlins...
This year, I think some overvalued pitchers will be: * C.J. Wilson * Yovani Gallardo * Jair Jurrens * Brandon Morrow (espically @ home)
This year, I think some undervalued pitchers will be: * Brandon McCarthy * Cory Luebeke * Mat Latos * Jeremey Hellickson
Completely agree with Morrow unless this happens to be his break through year. Even last year against some mediocre opponents he was laying -150 to -170, which is certainly an inflated line. Morrow is a tough one though because when he is on his game he is a strikeout machine, and as close to it comes as unhittable, but when he's not on his game, he can give up 8 runs in a couple of innings.
|
|
quote |
|
BigJeezy70 |
RSI  |
Prospect
Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 307
Location: Indiana |
#28 Posted: 4/2/2012 7:33:07 PM ALWAYS fade AJ Burnet. I don't care where he's pitching. Fade him and make $$$
|
|
quote |
|
monroekelly21 |
RSI |
Prospect
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 313
Location: |
#29 Posted: 4/2/2012 11:06:31 PM
Looking at his underlying stats from 2011, it is almost unbelievable he kept his actual ERA under 3.
I would look to bet the over in his first few starts.
I definitely like Cory Luebke. His stellar run of starts from last season seems quite sustainable.
Brandon Beachy looks to possibly be an underrated commodity, as he has limited name recognition, but he does play for a pretty public team.
I think the Mets Over might hold some value early in the season. I think Ike Davis and Lucas Duda are very underrated, plus they moved the fences in at Citi Field. |
|
quote |
|
SlinginDope |
RSI |
Prospect
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 407
Location: |
#30 Posted: 4/2/2012 11:27:22 PM
Jake Peavy is likely a favorite no matter what just based upon his contract. 
The Indians Josh Tomlin doesn't overpower hitters, but he is a strike thrower and has a career record of 18-11.
|
|
quote |
|
|
|
lewlew |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 2102
Location: |
#31 Posted: 4/2/2012 11:44:26 PM you all fools. most will be valued korrectly!
have fun yall!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11 |
|
quote |
|
RJ89 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 538
Location: |
#32 Posted: 4/3/2012 1:23:07 AM I think Adam Wainwright might be overvalued to start the year. He has had a great ERA this spring, so I think many people will assume he is back to his old self. However, he has had a lower K-rate and a lot of times it takes Tommy-Johns players some time to get back to how they were.
I was looking to fade Pineda, especially at home (because of his high FB%), but now it looks like he won't pitch any time soon. |
|
quote |
|
FBNK |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Apr 2011
Posts: 59
Location: |
#33 Posted: 4/3/2012 1:33:21 AM
Madison Bumgarner (dark horse CY candidate imo) Henderson Alvarez TOR Juan Nicasio COL Tom Milone OAK Brandon McCarthy OAK Matt Harrison TEX Brian Matusz BAL
These guys probably won't post high W totals, but their ratios I think could be very good. |
|
quote |
|
RJ89 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 538
Location: |
#34 Posted: 4/3/2012 2:00:34 AM FBNK, you might want to check out my thread on the subject: http://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101311295
I obviously agree about Milone, Nicasio, and Alvarez.
I don't really think there will be much value on McCarthy and Bumgarner since everyone already knows they are solid, though I do agree Bumgarner could take another big step forward.
I think Harrison is definitely an interesting name because he really improved as the season went on. He’s definitely a guy I will add to my watchlist. |
|
quote |
|
LanceLogan |
RSI |
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 4767
Location: British
Columbia |
#35 Posted: 4/3/2012 2:05:39 AM |
|
quote |
|
Spartacus10 |
RSI |
Captain
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 5009
Location: Ontario |
#36 Posted: 4/3/2012 1:09:10 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by lewlew: you all fools. most will be valued korrectly!
have fun yall!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11
How ironic is it that you call us fools, yet don't have the level of intelligence to understand how to spell correctly. Try contributing to the conversation rather than shitting on it. Your just another pointless troll on covers that contributes absolutely nothing.
|
|
quote |
|
radunham |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Bodog | |
Prospect
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 201
Location: Indiana |
#37 Posted: 4/3/2012 1:25:07 PM |
|
quote |
|
iceman67 |
RSI |
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 2095
Location: United States |
#38 Posted: 4/5/2012 5:17:40 PM Over/Under valued is more of a game by game thing.
I'll give you my top SP's who will outperform their general season expectations
#1 C. Sale #2 M. Latos #3 C.J. Wilson #4 Greinke |
|
quote |