#27 Posted: 6/15/2012 4:26:12 PM
mistakehitter - you may be right about the sharps on the sox,
however do not make the mistake of assuming that there is a 'sharp' side in every game 
hoopsvader- the total came out at 5.5 for a reason, im sure the books know the majority of the bets will be on the over with such a low total, tread carefully....LOB% can be a useful stat, but a moderately high LOB% can be maintained by a player with the skills to support. (obv 78% and 82% are still rooted in some luck) Use other stats such as BAbip along with LOB% to create a better picture of a pitchers ability to strand runners, and whether he is squeaking out of tough situations with the aid of his defence/balls hit straight to his defence/luck, or with superior pitching. while his season LOB% is 78%, over the past 30days (35.2IP) kershaw owns a 73.4LOB% to go along with a .289BAbip. Sale on the other hand owns a 95 LOB% with a .207BAbip, over the past 30days (36.2IP) a number which is horribly unsustainable. The most difficult aspect of chris sale's LOB% to account for is his 43K through 36.2IP, however sale still has been benefiting from a fair share of luck, and at the current price, kershaw is certainly the SP with more value imo. Whether you have the stomach to back the dodgers offence right now is the question. |