Posted: 8/29/2013 2:20:29 PM
This may be the very best play on the board this weekend. There are a number of line moves as well as peculiar betting action to make this game one to watch closely.
1. In a game of non public teams like this, one does not see heavy action on either side typically. However, so far this week, this game is easily in the upper 3rd of games with the most action. The question is why? See below.
2. There is a divergence between where the consensus at Sports Insights (real money being bet ) as compared to the internet consensus sites ( ie Covers) which is just regular dudes putting up opinions but not backing their opinions with real money. SI is showing money on WKY (sharp money?) at 59% while Cover is showing Kentucky at 60% (square opinion not backed by $) as of Thursday. This may change but if it does not change significantly, this will point to a play on W Ky.
3. The parlay betting is heavily in favor of Kentucky ( over 70% at Sports Insights). This is how one can determine which is the real public side. In this case, the public is all over Kentucky. I never like to back the public side so this also points to W Ky. Backing public sides in games will only win around 48 to 49% per year on average.
4. There is a reverse line move on W Ky. This situation is pretty strong typically and has hit about 55% over the last few seasons. This indicator also points to W Ky.
If there are any fundamental reasons, trends, situational plays that would negate this analysis, please post. I am not interested in reading " Kentucky is going to kick their behind...etc" but would love to see some informed opinions on this game.