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September Dogs - Starting with $4k

Forum: MLB Betting Page 55 of 58 «  53 54 55 56 57   »
Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: September Dogs - Starting with $4k
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#1351
Posted: 9/17/2017 1:23:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dbasports:

Thank you sir my comment about cheating on her was a bad joke but gave us some good karma again because we know you wouldn't do that 

Oh its ok. I just didn't respond. I'm too 'head-in-the-books' to even have time for cheating non-sense  :P

Divorcing isn't good or healthy, and I really don't want to advocate it to anyone. It is unfortunate that I'm petitioning one. As reluctant as I am to be the one to file, I'll let you do the math as to what happened...

Anyways, some thoughts here for September:
(As the thread title is 'SEPTEMBER DOGS', I wanted to briefly talk about MLB and how it has changed in the last few years since I began this thread roughly)

Up until the last several years (after they added the extra wild card spot) Septembers were my best month just blindly taking big dogs against clinched over valued favs. The rules changed though. September isn't dogs on the blind month anymore. Definitely more thinking required now.

Consider the following COLD HARD FACTS:
My first post was in 2012
*Since 2005 to 2011, (prior to the first season the extra wild card spot was added), September dogs were, 1245-1614 +77.68 units on the blind.

*Since 2012 (first season wild card spot was added), September dogs are flip flopped: 932-1376 -110.03 units.

It seems telling what happened if you understood the premise of betting dogs late season to begin with: you bet against overvalued, don't need the win favorites. Things are different now, more often, team do need a win...MLB wanted to make late regular season more interesting. so no more freebies.

So I wanted to test the original premise, isolating post 2011 season results only: The thought: does the original premise STILL hold up, but this time we isolate dogs with opponents with a plethora of wins above .500.
Let's see what recent history says:

BINGO!

Since 2012, Dogs facing teams (likely clinched) with over 33 more wins than losses, in regular season from 9/1's on, are 57-49 +39.06 units, +36.8% roi SU!

The premise holds true, it just needed to be more clearly defined. This is why keeping up with the rules and recent news in sports you cap is important.

That simple system is active on the Royals today. Will follow up if I'm betting them though.






laitay77 PM laitay77
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quote#1352
Posted: 9/18/2017 11:49:40 AM
My little system also suffered changes this year on the subject of dogs, maybe the dogs meet in April May and June is what my numbers say but what can be the reasons? I'm not an expert in baseball, but I'll comment on some ideas that came to me these days. As you said mlb can't afford games without excitement is not a long-term profitable show as the general public loses interest. My opinion and my numbers of the last 2 years tell me, that dogs are a value in days or stages of the season that a manager of a good team can take a break for example before and after the all star break this year from the day 7,8,9,10 (all star break 11-14 Jul) 15,16,17, every day these I mention won a great dog the odds were the highest +254 , the lowest was +130. I could also observe that the first days of the month 1,2,3 of each month is a day of big dogs, the system deals with fade to the general public maybe this would be the explanation money lost work. But the last idea I thought about is that I don't like to be conspiracy, but if I don't remember wrong last year I changed the headquarters of the mlb from toronto to cleveland I would say and also the maximum responsible person perhaps gave orders to have a league more equaled in percentage of victories you with the one of numbers that has it will be easy to answer if the league during this time is matched or not. Starting from this last idea it would be easier to give small help to the bad teams at the beginning of the season to take everything more evenly since the beginning and already at the end of the season wild card teams that need wild card would do their work and the percentages would be more or less the same as every year, the difference would be that during April - August everything would be more even in the table of classification. My humble opinion if you don't understand something I'm sorry I'm improving my English. Greetings and good luck!

herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#1353
Posted: 9/19/2017 3:11:39 PM
For today:

Pittsburgh Pirates +111 
vs Milwaukee Brewers
$89 to win $98.79

KEY SYSTEM: Since 2004, sub .500 home division dogs, +100 to +145, off of a loss as a home favorite are 145-114 +49.56 units SU +19.1% roi. - Take the Pirates

 
Motherflickee PM Motherflickee
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quote#1354
Posted: 9/19/2017 6:28:27 PM


Thanks.
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#1355
Posted: 9/20/2017 4:38:33 PM
Two dogs today for $77 each:

Atlanta Braves +144 
vs Washington Nationals

and 

Texas Rangers +134 
vs Seattle Mariners

SYSTEM OF THE DAY: Fade plus .600 Favorites at the end of regular season: 218-185 -93.44 units SU +15.5% roi fade. Very simple, very powerful.

SYSTEM OF MONTH: ???????Since 2012, Dogs facing teams (likely clinched) with over 33 more wins than losses, in regular season from 9/1's on, are 57-49 +39.06 units, +36.8% roi SU!
Profited up to +40 units - slight gain so far.
Active on the Angels, White Sox and Phillies if you want to consider those as well!

SBT PM SBT
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quote#1356
Posted: 9/20/2017 6:41:10 PM
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#1357
Posted: 9/21/2017 3:20:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

 

Two dogs today for $77 each:

Atlanta Braves +144  LOST
vs Washington Nationals

and 

Texas Rangers +134  WINNER!
vs Seattle Mariners

Slight gainer 1-1 on the dogs...

Current Bankroll: $12,896.58
from $4000 (+221.76 units)

For Today:

$89 to win $104.13
San Diego Padres +117 
vs Colorado Rockies
barneybeans PM barneybeans
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quote#1358
Posted: 9/21/2017 3:30:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:


Up until the last several years (after they added the extra wild card spot) Septembers were my best month just blindly taking big dogs against clinched over valued favs. The rules changed though. September isn't dogs on the blind month anymore. Definitely more thinking required now.



It seems telling what happened if you understood the premise of betting dogs late season to begin with: you bet against overvalued, don't need the win favorites. Things are different now, more often, team do need a win...MLB wanted to make late regular season more interesting. so no more freebies.
Herb you are most likely also talking about home field - but if yes or no for some who may not know Home field in the playoffs and the WorldSeries is it determined by winning record and not the all star game. So CLE, HOU etc... are all playing for home field. 

I think this september has that extra layer in it as well.

On another note I never got married and don't regret it. 




herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#1359
Posted: 9/22/2017 1:10:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:


$89 to win $104.13
San Diego Padres +117 
vs Colorado Rockies
WINNER!

The Padres were barkin'

Current Bankroll: $13,000.71
from $4000 (+221.76 units)

I think we're still just a bit below a previous high by like $200 or $300, but getting out of my personal funk here. Admittedly, my one screw up was bein ill and not posting these two +200 ish doggies which I feel very bad about. I hope you guys are saving all of these systems I'm sharing and doing a little of your own betting or trying to learn to.

TheDonkeyRancher PM TheDonkeyRancher
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quote#1360
Posted: 9/22/2017 1:14:15 PM
bojangles804 PM bojangles804
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quote#1361
Posted: 9/22/2017 1:20:40 PM
I have!  Since you last spoke about it a few weeks back, I've been tinkering with the SDQL and I've found some very interesting trends.  It's clear to me now how this becomes more of a strategical investment as oppose to just gambling.  Appreciate you for all the insights and I look forward to your posts daily!  Keep it up Herb!!!
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#1362
Posted: 9/22/2017 3:18:26 PM
For today:

Chicago White Sox +117 
vs Kansas City Royals
$118 to win $138.06

KEY SYSTEM OF THE DAY: A Dog off of a a win as a dog where they scored 3 or fewer runs is 758-939 +82.07 units since 2004. Active of the Padres and White Sox



herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#1363
Posted: 9/22/2017 3:23:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bojangles804:

I have!  Since you last spoke about it a few weeks back, I've been tinkering with the SDQL and I've found some very interesting trends.  It's clear to me now how this becomes more of a strategical investment as oppose to just gambling.  Appreciate you for all the insights and I look forward to your posts daily!  Keep it up Herb!!!

Yes! Good for you. I'm one of the sellers on the SDQL (Killersports) Trend Mart. Helped start that thing. Mainly because I appreciate what Joe Meyer over there did so much: It is a free to the public service.

Please consider supporting him by storing the trends I share (if you know how to query them) for $2

Yes, you can just bookmark them for free, but he does have to pay expensive server costs. :)

But bottom line: After running this thread for years now and sharing my valuable trends, it makes me happy to see people become their own independent gamblers gone investors. Building community is a good thing....so please share trends you guys find as well. Help others and you truly help yourself!

PlayWithThem PM PlayWithThem
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quote#1364
Posted: 9/22/2017 3:35:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:


Yes! Good for you. I'm one of the sellers on the SDQL (Killersports) Trend Mart. Helped start that thing. Mainly because I appreciate what Joe Meyer over there did so much: It is a free to the public service.

Please consider supporting him by storing the trends I share (if you know how to query them) for $2

Yes, you can just bookmark them for free, but he does have to pay expensive server costs. :)

But bottom line: After running this thread for years now and sharing my valuable trends, it makes me happy to see people become their own independent gamblers gone investors. Building community is a good thing....so please share trends you guys find as well. Help others and you truly help yourself!


Great post, Herb. After all, we are a community.
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#1365
Posted: 9/23/2017 11:32:22 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

For today:

Chicago White Sox +117 
vs Kansas City Royals
$118 to win $138.06

WINNER!

PCG newsletter stuff went 5-0 yesterday. 3-0 in CFL and 2-0 on the MLB dogs (also too the Mariners. Awesome run in Football over on that side of the fence :P 

Current Bankroll: $13,138.77
from $4000 (+221.76 units)

Will follow up if I have a play. Looking at the games...
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#1366
Posted: 9/23/2017 12:10:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PlayWithThem:


Great post, Herb. After all, we are a community.

I'm surprised how many people here at covers know, without me ever having said, what SDQL is. I'll have to share this thread with Joe.

SDQL is completely free (sportsdatabase.com) to the public.

I think it would be cool if we share the actual SDQL code for these systems...maybe another SDQL system sharing thread is in order, but I'm not sure if the forum mods are okay with that. Anyone know?

Example: The "SDQL" for yesterday's system ('A Dog off of a a win as a dog where they scored 3 or fewer runs is758-939 +82.07 units since 2004. Active of the Padres and White Sox') is:

D and p:D and p:W and p:runs <= 3

Anyone interested in starting a thread like that? (SDQL System sharing?)


SBT PM SBT
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quote#1367
Posted: 9/23/2017 12:38:22 PM
That's absolutely a great idea Herb! More knowledge, more power! Sharing is caring IMO. 

I like the SDQL to that Dog off win but what's the premise behind it? I think the biggest addition to the SDQL query is sharing the thoughts/premise behind why it works long term. Cheers!
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#1368
Posted: 9/24/2017 1:25:00 PM
$86 to win $236.5
San Francisco Giants +275 
vs Los Angeles Dodgers

SYSTEM OF THE DAY: A Dog off of a a win as a dog where they scored 3 or fewer runs is 758-939 +82.07 units since 2004. - Take the Giants!

herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#1369
Posted: 9/26/2017 1:26:17 PM
Minnesota Twins +180 
vs Cleveland Indians
$89 to win $160.20

Since 2012, Dogs facing teams (likely clinched) with over 33 more wins than losses, in regular season from 9/1's on, are 57-49 +39.06 units, +36.8% roi SU!
therealdutch PM therealdutch
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quote#1370
Posted: 9/26/2017 4:15:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

Since 2012, Dogs facing teams (likely clinched) with over 33 more wins than losses, in regular season from 9/1's on, are 57-49 +39.06 units, +36.8% roi SU!


Indians don't have 33 more wins than losses.  they're at 30 right now (98-58).  was 33 a typo in SDQL or just in your post?  or am i not reading that right?

one other thing i see that may skew the stat there is that for the years you queried, the World Series home-field advantage was determined by the All Star Game winner.  this year it will be determined by the regular season records of the 2 teams that meet.  Cleveland could still catch the Dodgers to gain home field, and on the flip side of that they don't want the Nationals to catch up to them and take that away since they won't know who they'll be playing until after the NLCS. 

sorry to critique your query, but i think this rule change (and the other number i pointed out) do affect this pretty significantly, at least in theory, as to how teams that have that far of a lead and have clenched would approach the final stretch of baseball.  makes every game count even with a huge lead in the win column.
Petyr_Baelish PM Petyr_Baelish
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quote#1371
Posted: 9/26/2017 4:19:35 PM
Started from first page of thread then jumped to last. 
Jorgelb47 PM Jorgelb47
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quote#1372
Posted: 9/26/2017 5:23:40 PM
98-58=40 
Jorgelb47 PM Jorgelb47
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quote#1373
Posted: 9/26/2017 5:25:43 PM
Dutch did you fail math in school????
therealdutch PM therealdutch
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quote#1374
Posted: 9/26/2017 6:00:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Jorgelb47:

Dutch did you fail math in school????


whoops, no, i have a masters in accounting.  i made a mistake in my haste to post the other info about the rule change having an effect.

 i think that the rule change for home field advantage is really the more important point anyway.  if this was in a prior year, the indians would already know they would have home field advantage b/c the AL won the ASG.  but not this season.  these games are important.


TheDonkeyRancher PM TheDonkeyRancher
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quote#1375
Posted: 9/26/2017 6:06:58 PM
Like this play Herb. BOL 
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