September Dogs - Starting with $4k

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: September Dogs - Starting with $4k
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#351
Posted: 7/9/2013 12:53:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

Two Team Parlay:
#910 Atlanta Braves ML
#921 Tampa Bay Rays ML
($276 units to win $326.80) WINNER!

*Since 2009, -150 and up favorites are 176-56 (75.9%, +79.58 units, +19.3% roi) in July division games.
You could substitute Texas (ML) here for Tampa Bay; however, I think we've got a better bet in TB and a better starting pitcher.
**The Astros are just 9-45 (16.7%) SU since 2011 in July games. 3-25 (10.7%, -21.23 units) SU since 2012.

*Kris Medlen is 17-2 SU (89.2%, +14.56 units, +50.9% roi) in division games (career).

Current Bankroll: $6,806.09 (+70.15 units)
from $4000


herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#352
Posted: 7/9/2013 1:02:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gbpackman:

Nice win! I was worried about Medlin at first. He seemed off his game. He was lights out last year. I guess you could call it a semi-sophomore slump.

Glad you cashed it gb. Here's what I've got for today:

Two Team Parlay:
#966 Baltimore Orioles ML
#970 Detroit Tigers ML
($94 to win $144.92)

Notes:

**The O's are 26-14 (65%, +28.3% roi) this season off of a loss.
***That's 10-3 (76.9%, +34% roi) seeking immediate revenge and now a favorite***
*The Baltimore Orioles are 30-19 (61.2%, +12.29 units, +22.5% roi) this season against plus .500 teams.
*In the last two season, the O's have been 27-11 (71.1%, +19.64 units, +45.5% roi) on Tuesdays. 


*Since 2009, Home Favorites are 725-417 (63.5%, +104.38 units) SU in July.

*Mega Stat: *Since 2006, Justin Verlander is a whopping 86-33 (72.3%, +24.36 units) SU for -150 and up.  

Pendo PM Pendo
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quote#353
Posted: 8/13/2013 5:18:14 PM
Herballs,

time for Sept Dogs to bark a bit early...
Pendo PM Pendo
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quote#354
Posted: 8/20/2013 12:50:44 PM
20 aug '13
tues dogs:
Minnesota
San Fran
Houston
SD
Milw


and little pup is Clev-Laa under
Pendo PM Pendo
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quote#355
Posted: 8/21/2013 5:37:58 AM
Minnesota = +181
San Fran = +146
Houston = L
SD = L
Milw = +118


and little pup is Clev-Laa under = +100

––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
845 - 200 = +645
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#356
Posted: 9/5/2013 2:45:02 PM
I'm back. September is MONEY time. Get out your wallets. 

For today take:
#955 Seattle Mariners +160 ($188 to win $300.80)
over the KC Royals

We're gonna rock September exactly as we did last year: looks for the uncanny dog off of a win in this last month.

The public gets killed every year trying to get fancy in July and August and then only wants to be favorites in the last month a regular season, post deadline, and when the favorites start letting down as they clinch.

Woof woof!!


JayKay21 PM JayKay21
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quote#357
Posted: 9/5/2013 3:00:12 PM
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#358
Posted: 9/5/2013 5:21:59 PM
6-6 extra innings now. Well whatever happens I'm happy. I took the OVER in this one. Also took the +1 on SEA instead of the ML so I'm hoping they can hang on at least 1 run diff.
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#359
Posted: 9/9/2013 11:35:44 AM
Like the Buffalo Bills might often say, "Close But No Cigar." 

Seattle choked big time blowing a lead like that.

Here's what I like today:

#968 Chicago White Sox +128 ($282 to win $360.96)
over the Detroit Tigers

In Chicago:
*After July's and since 2012, the White Sox are 26-16 (65.0% +13.8 units, +31.6% roi) SU at home vs. plus .500 teams.
*One of the big stats to fade late season is Errors as 'good fielding.' I'm not sure why exactly, but this stat regresses consistently. 
This season, The Detroit Tigers are just 12-20 (37.5%, -17.09 units, +44.1% roi) SU to fade after 15 or more straight games with one or fewer errors. 

I have two theories on why that last thing happens: A. Teams get a false belief in themselves. B. Post trade deadline / New personnel nulls the stat. 

*This season, the Tigers are just 34-34 (-21.15 units, +22.8% roi to fade) SU after a game where the bullpen allowed nothing.
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#360
Posted: 9/9/2013 11:47:59 AM
Yankees were looking alright too, but Baltimore isn't really a team I like fading. Consider that one too though if you have some sort of conviction in it. 
str8from228 PM str8from228
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quote#361
Posted: 9/10/2013 1:12:35 AM
dammit should of listen to you about the Yankees..........
str8from228 PM str8from228
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quote#362
Posted: 9/10/2013 1:15:13 AM
been getting beat up in mlb herbshack....gonna follow you rest of the month.
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#363
Posted: 9/10/2013 2:24:28 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

Like the Buffalo Bills might often say, "Close But No Cigar." 

Seattle choked big time blowing a lead like that.

Here's what I like today:

#968 Chicago White Sox +128 ($282 to win $360.96) WINNER!
over the Detroit Tigers

In Chicago:
*After July's and since 2012, the White Sox are 26-16 (65.0% +13.8 units, +31.6% roi) SU at home vs. plus .500 teams.
*One of the big stats to fade late season is Errors as 'good fielding.' I'm not sure why exactly, but this stat regresses consistently. 
This season, The Detroit Tigers are just 12-20 (37.5%, -17.09 units, +44.1% roi) SU to fade after 15 or more straight games with one or fewer errors. 

I have two theories on why that last thing happens: A. Teams get a false belief in themselves. B. Post trade deadline / New personnel nulls the stat. 

*This season, the Tigers are just 34-34 (-21.15 units, +22.8% roi to fade) SU after a game where the bullpen allowed nothing.

Current Bankroll: $6,885.05 (+72.13 units)
from $4000
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#364
Posted: 9/10/2013 2:24:59 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by str8from228:

been getting beat up in mlb herbshack....gonna follow you rest of the month.

shiveringheights PM shiveringheights
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quote#365
Posted: 9/10/2013 8:21:25 AM
what are your picks today herbshack? daym you've been streaking!
shiveringheights PM shiveringheights
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quote#366
Posted: 9/10/2013 11:22:50 AM
Where do you get those stats? Its gold
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#367
Posted: 9/10/2013 11:38:20 AM
Just by running combinations and permutations on our databases.

We're not streaking. We are 1-2 in the last 3 games, but we're up because we're betting dogs and managing money well.
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#368
Posted: 9/10/2013 12:19:56 PM
Not a dog, but for smaller:

#920 Baltimore Orioles -1 +129 ($95 to win $123.36)
over the New York Yankees

Yankees had their chance in the momentum spot yesterday. Baltimore proved they're better and should have the Yanks reeling.
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#369
Posted: 9/10/2013 12:20:19 PM
Current Bankroll: $6,885.05 (+72.13 units)
from $4000
Zireal PM Zireal
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quote#370
Posted: 9/10/2013 3:07:28 PM
great thread!

Thanks for all your hard work here...

Could you share a secret - where do you take those stats from?

Keep it up - BOL!
tinfoils PM tinfoils
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quote#371
Posted: 9/10/2013 5:00:54 PM
The RED eye is back! Good luck herb!
PatrickBateman PM PatrickBateman
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quote#372
Posted: 9/10/2013 5:42:20 PM

herbshack,

Just found this thread, great job man. I really like the stats you provide for your plays. Just two questions if you don't mind:

1) Where do you find all those statistics? You mention a database sometimes, but is that your only source for info?

2) I notice that your wagers sometimes increase. When do you decide to bet more and when do you decide to bet less? I know it sounds like you bet a certain predetermined portion of you bankroll but sometimes you vary this. Just wondering why. Im a flat better myself but I always like to hear other peoples money management strategies. Thanks so much and BOL

BarcsHasBite PM BarcsHasBite
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quote#373
Posted: 9/10/2013 9:05:00 PM
Zireal PM Zireal
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quote#374
Posted: 9/12/2013 1:47:23 PM
Anything for today?
herbshack PM herbshack
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quote#375
Posted: 9/27/2013 11:32:00 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Zireal:

great thread!

Thanks for all your hard work here...

Could you share a secret - where do you take those stats from?

Keep it up - BOL!

I use both sportsdatabase.com and my own databases (primarily my own)...and I don't "take" anything. 


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