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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: September Dogs - Starting with $4k
herbshack send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#251
Posted: 4/13/2013 10:14:35 AM
For 4.13.2013:

* The A's are 29-13 (69%) +22.41 units after 1 division series since 2012. They're 15-3 83.3% +15.6 units (+76.2% roi) after two division series.
* Since 2012, the Detroit Tigers have been just 25-33 (43.1%) -18.79 units (+26.5% roi fade) as road favorites. If you think Justin Verlander was an exception, you're wrong: He was the second worst investment next to Doug Fister going 11-10 -3.8 units.
* Since 2004, the home underdog is 1560-1809 (46.3%) +103.99 units in the first two and last two months of MLB.

Take:

#920 OAKLAND ATHLETICS +117 ($77 to win $90.09)

over the Detroit Tigers

List: Anderson / Verlander
quote
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#252
Posted: 4/14/2013 3:03:31 PM
For 4.14.2013 Take:

#977 Baltimore Orioles +104 ($112 to win $116.48)
over the New York Yankees

List: Chen / Kuroda

-Baltimore is 44-35 +26.82 units (+33.9% roi) since 2012 as road dogs. 
-That's 40-27 +28.73 units (+42.9% roi) where the total was greater than 7.
quote
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#253
Posted: 4/16/2013 11:14:03 AM
For 4.16.2013 Take:

#980 Chicago Cubs +118 ($168 to win $198.24)
over the Texas Rangers

In Chicago:
*Since 2004, <=155 home dogs off of a loss are 33-22 (avg line +124.9) facing an opponent off of a loss in April.
*Since 2004, in April, home dogs off of a road loss are 47-27 SU in series game 1.
quote
Pendo
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#254
Posted: 4/17/2013 11:45:30 AM
Had Houston as a dog in their season opener!
They're getting more runs than expected via "small-ball" and have
decent pitching in comparison.  They're going to be a pretty good dog
by hitting the whole season long.
quote
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#255
Posted: 4/17/2013 12:30:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Pendo:

Had Houston as a dog in their season opener!
They're getting more runs than expected via "small-ball" and have
decent pitching in comparison.  They're going to be a pretty good dog
by hitting the whole season long.

I agree with you Pendo. I had Houston too in the opener. Felt pretty good to hit that one. They'll be finding themselves in a lot of classic money spots this season. Houston may just finish in the black (units won) this year. Then again maybe not, still a lot work to do, and they weren't able to take any of that season opener magic with them anywhere.
quote
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#256
Posted: 4/17/2013 12:32:08 PM
For 4.17.2013 Take:

#920 Baltimore Orioles +104 ($385 to win $400.40)
over Tampa Bay Rays

List: Tillman / Moore

*The Baltimore Orioles are 57-44 SU +31.37 units (+31.1% roi) since 2012 as Underdogs in games where the total is greater than 7.
*Matt Moore is SU: 0-8 (+113.7% roi fade) career as a road favorite starter.
-Since 2012, the Rays are just 29-38 -16.93 units as 100-150 favorites.

Over 55% of the public bets are already on Tampa Bay. 
quote
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#257
Posted: 4/22/2013 3:05:11 PM
For 4.22.2013 Take:

#966 Baltimore Orioles -1 +129 ($616 to win $794.64)
over the Toronto Blue Jays

List: Happ / Tillman

-Since 2012, the O's are 49-31 +21.72 units after a game going OVER the total. 
-Since 2012, the O's are 31-19 +15.99 units SU and 35-15 +19.1 units RL after 2+ games where they had zero errors.
Since 2011, the Blue Jays are 12-31 (27.9%, +38.4%  roi fade [+20.22 units]) after 2+ games where the bullpen didn't allow any runs.

Go Baltimore!

quote
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#258
Posted: 4/24/2013 10:53:33 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

For 4.22.2013 Take:

#966 Baltimore Orioles -1 +129 ($616 to win $794.64)
over the Toronto Blue Jays

List: Happ / Tillman

-Since 2012, the O's are 49-31 +21.72 units after a game going OVER the total. 
-Since 2012, the O's are 31-19 +15.99 units SU and 35-15 +19.1 units RL after 2+ games where they had zero errors.
Since 2011, the Blue Jays are 12-31 (27.9%, +38.4%  roi fade [+20.22 units]) after 2+ games where the bullpen didn't allow any runs.

Go Baltimore!

Pushed...
quote
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#259
Posted: 4/24/2013 10:58:24 AM
For 4.22.2013 Take:

#971 Oakland Athletics +143 ($616 to win $794.64)
over the Boston Red Sox

*List Anderson/Lester (definitely list Lester)

*The Oakland A's are 36-13 (73.5%, +30.83 units, +58.6% roi) since 2012 after 4+ games on the road. 22-8 +17.56 units after win.
*Jon Lester is just 11-19 (36.7%, -20.66 units, +60% roi fade) as a home favorite since 2011. 
*That's a real nasty 3-14 (17.6%, -21.15 units, +114.1% fade) for -150 to -200 at home since 2011.

So far no one wants any part of Oakland today (nearly 0% of the public bets) even though they smoked Boston yesterday 13-0.
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#260
Posted: 4/24/2013 11:00:23 AM
Ah sorry that last post for Oakland +143 is for today (4.24.2013).

Let's cash one of these dogs...
quote
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#261
Posted: 4/24/2013 11:01:47 AM
Gahhh. Another typo there. Should be ($616 to win $880.88)

quote
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#262
Posted: 4/29/2013 11:50:32 AM
For 4.29.2013 take:

Two Team Parlay:
#902 Atlanta Braves +1.5 RL
#918 Detroit Tigers ML
($924 to win $1,358.28)

***Since 2004, -200 to -250 favorites are a massive 211-78 (73%) +38.5 units in the first two months. 8-0 this season.
*Since 2002, April dogs off of a 1,2 run win or less than 10 run loss against plus .400 opponents are 973-1107 +153.96 units (+7.4% roi).
quote
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#263
Posted: 4/29/2013 11:50:50 AM
 
quote
JEFFTHEHAT
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#264
Posted: 4/29/2013 5:11:00 PM
There was a loss -225 opening line April 19 th and more than 8 wins this year might want to check your stats!
quote
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#265
Posted: 4/29/2013 6:27:41 PM

Good luck herb!

quote
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#266
Posted: 4/29/2013 10:10:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:

There was a loss -225 opening line April 19 th and more than 8 wins this year might want to check your stats!

Oh my God. Pardon me. That game closed at -280 or above -250 in most books so it simply didn't get logged in my database. 

PLEASE forgive me for that one. I will have to try harder when checking my stats.

Thanks for the advice...
quote
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#267
Posted: 4/29/2013 10:14:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

For 4.29.2013 take:

Two Team Parlay:
#902 Atlanta Braves +1.5 RL
#918 Detroit Tigers ML
($924 to win $1,358.28)

***Since 2004, -200 to -250 favorites are a massive 211-78 (73%) +38.5 units in the first two months. 8-0 this season.
*Since 2002, April dogs off of a 1,2 run win or less than 10 run loss against plus .400 opponents are 973-1107 +153.96 units (+7.4% roi).

WINNER!


New Bankroll: $5,583.80 (+39.6%)
from $4000
quote
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#268
Posted: 4/29/2013 10:15:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tinfoils:

Good luck herb!


Thanks. Where were you on the last 20 plays I lost lol.
quote
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#269
Posted: 4/30/2013 11:10:04 AM
For 4.30.2013 Take:

Two Team Parlay:
#962 Arizona Diamonbacks +1.5 RL
#968 Detroit Tigers ML
(1 unit to win 1.29 units)

quote
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#270
Posted: 4/30/2013 11:11:22 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

For 4.30.2013 Take:

Two Team Parlay:
#962 Arizona Diamonbacks +1.5 RL
#968 Detroit Tigers ML
(1 unit to win 1.29 units)


Ah sorry that's ($77 to win $99.33)
quote
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#271
Posted: 5/1/2013 12:21:43 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

For 4.30.2013 Take:

Two Team Parlay:
#962 Arizona Diamonbacks +1.5 RL
#968 Detroit Tigers ML
($77 to win $99.33) WINNER!


New Bankroll: $5,683.13 (+42.08%)
from $4000
quote
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#272
Posted: 5/3/2013 2:31:53 PM
For 5.3.2013 Take:

#930 Colorado Rockies +114 ($78 to win $88.92)
over the Tampa Bay Rays

*Since 2008, teams whose tired (thrown 8+ innings last two games) bullpens' just got hammered 4+ earned runs are good fades: 644-529 (54.9%, +68.78 units, +4.6% roi).
-Last game, the Rays bullpen gave up 7 runs. The starter was relieved in just the 5th inning. Game before that, 4 runs and after 4 bombed in in the 6th.
-The Rockies' gave up 0 runs last game. The also do very well coming home after a long (4+ game) road trip: 16-5 (76.2%) +11.79 units since 2011.

quote
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#273
Posted: 5/3/2013 2:40:20 PM
smart man.
quote
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#274
Posted: 5/4/2013 11:15:03 AM
For 5.4.2013 Take:

#976 Houston Astros +1 +125 ($156 to win $195)
over the Detroit Tigers


quote
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#275
Posted: 5/4/2013 12:47:19 PM
Good luck herb!
quote
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