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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: April 30 Mariners at Tampa Bay
3825 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#1
Posted: 4/30/2012 3:39:09 PM
Felix Hernandez vs Jeremy Hellickson tonight, seems like one should start by looking at an the under play.  It will cost 30 cents to protect the 7.0, if I wind up on the under, i think I will be very right or very wrong, thus I won't have an issue with sticking to the under 6.5

Hellickson dominated the Mariners last season, with the latter two starts being On July 31 and August 20, thus he has seen some of the Mariners young players.  So this isn't a completely new team that he is facing.

Felix went 1-1 last season vs the Rays, losing a CG performance at the Trop in that same August series.  Felix has been very good this year, and there is no real reason to project him to have a poor outing tonight.  He certainly could, but I would rather bet against that happening.

In general, my philosophy with the Mariners is still quite simple, back them at dog prices, be careful of laying much juice unless you have a clear angle that allows much margin for error with their offense. 

The Mariners offense is very, very flaky and unpredictable.  Note the outbursts in the detroit, the 9th and 10th innings on  Friday night in Toronto, and then the deafening slience in the last two games.  Since the Saunders Grand SLam on Friday, the Mariners are 0-22 with RISP.

That 0-22 isn't a good indicator of tonight's performance, but it does illustrate what happens when you have an offense that needs to click perfectly to score runs.

For that reason, I think the Mariners become more playable at underdog prices.  There will be cases, (and tonight might be one of them) where they just don't have a very good chance of scoring at all because the opposing pitcher has a mammoth advantage in the match ups.  Felix mitigates some of that tonight for me.

Moving foward, I'm looking for reasons to avoid an under 6.5 play, i might also get some Mariners ML, if, and only if, i can project Hellickson as not being a slam dunk to to be dominant tonight.


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#2
Posted: 4/30/2012 3:50:14 PM
Mariners Lineup
LF  Figgins
2B  Ackley
RF  Ichiro
1B  Smoak
DH  Montero
3B  Seager
C    Olivo
CF  Saunders
SS  Ryan
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FastTony1323
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#3
Posted: 4/30/2012 3:55:41 PM

Looking at M's and under as well...  Did well backing Felix as a big dog last outting.  I thought the M's bats were waking up after that series but it seems your analysis is spot on.  They need 1-9 to hit the ball and play good baseball before they start plating any substantial runs.  Hellickson has been tough and TB has been hitting the ball well but I think you can throw there previous few games out the window the way Felix has been hitting the ball as of late.  My only concern obviously is TB gets deep into counts with him and gets him out of the game after 6 and the pen needs to hold them.  Not really sure what I will do if anything it will be small play on M's ML and u6.5 and try for a scoop if the game plays out the way I see it doing.  Either way BOL 3825 always enjoy your writeups and analysis

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#4
Posted: 4/30/2012 4:23:14 PM
SP- Jeremy Hellickson

2012 season
3-0, 2.84 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 14 Ks
vs. Mariners last 5 years
3-0, 0.81 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 11 K

why wouldnt jeremey be a slam dunk?

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#5
Posted: 4/30/2012 5:48:17 PM
Ms to win... I got u!!!
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#6
Posted: 4/30/2012 5:48:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by RyanTRuchie:

SP- Jeremy Hellickson

2012 season
3-0, 2.84 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 14 Ks
vs. Mariners last 5 years
3-0, 0.81 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 11 K

why wouldnt jeremey be a slam dunk?



small sample size, flattered by an unsustainable  Opposing BABIP of .206.  Hellickson very well might smoke the Mariners again tonight, but its very unlikely that he will maintain this pace of smoking them very far into the future.

 I'm not a big fan of climbing aboard a moving train, i prefer to wait for it to stop before climbing aboard, so It's unlikely I will back the Mariners ML at these prices tonight, in part because of the confidence that Hellickson brings into this game.


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#7
Posted: 4/30/2012 5:50:48 PM
M'S & UNDER
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#8
Posted: 4/30/2012 5:52:34 PM
some guy named Alan Porter is behind the plate tonight, never heard of him.  But I would not be reading much into his 65% strike rate this year, it came in just 2 games.  he was 63% last season.
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#9
Posted: 4/30/2012 5:54:34 PM
Rays Lineup
2B  Zobrist
1B  Pena
3B  Longoria
DH  Scott
RF  Joyce
LF  Allen
CF  Upton
SS  Rodriguez
C    Molina
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#10
Posted: 4/30/2012 5:59:43 PM
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#11
Posted: 4/30/2012 6:11:03 PM
Look no further than Max Scherzer for an example of a guy who had previously dominated a team, and then falls flat on his face.

certainly, some small sample sizes tell a good story AND can be used to predict future performance, but many are not.

given larger sample sizes, one can make a case to back the Mariners, but I'm just not seeing enough of a case to back them at +128. 

If it was +140, I'd likely sign up.
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#12
Posted: 4/30/2012 6:21:11 PM
I'm on the Mariners tonight for 2 dimes. winning!

Toronto as well!!

BOL
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#13
Posted: 4/30/2012 6:25:54 PM
M's already locked in lets get the cash
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#14
Posted: 4/30/2012 6:37:02 PM
0.98 Units at +105 on Under 6.5 Tonight

The Under took a 10 cent hit in the past ten minutes,  I'm going with the "i'm either very right, or very wrong approach" tonight, thus i'll take the lower total at a better price.
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#15
Posted: 4/30/2012 6:40:31 PM
K.I.S.S. You have one of the best pitchers in baseball at a dog price. Maybe you don't play on him, but it is foolish to go against him. Total of 6.5? Doesn't look like totals gurus are looking for a high scoring game. That alone makes the dog dangerous. Someone said Rays will try to wear him down and get him out of there by the 6th. Good luck. Felix knows that strategy better than you do. First ball, fast ball, knee high strike. Down 0-1 in the count you going to keep trying to wear him out or wake up and realize if you keep the bat on your shoulder you will probably be 0-2 and have to swing at HIS pitch, not yours. BTW, I see 7 on the total, but the under is catching heavy juice, so that is the way totals bettors are going.
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#16
Posted: 4/30/2012 7:20:24 PM
What's the K.I.S.S. for?
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#17
Posted: 4/30/2012 7:22:21 PM
keep it simple stupid

gl 3825
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#18
Posted: 4/30/2012 7:56:41 PM
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#19
Posted: 4/30/2012 8:13:13 PM
Longoria on the bench potentially helps the cause.
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#20
Posted: 4/30/2012 8:16:02 PM
Like the play 3825, no play for me all around but BOL
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#21
Posted: 4/30/2012 10:35:27 PM
I'm starting to smell the scent of a far away, but closing, moose herd.
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#22
Posted: 4/30/2012 10:43:19 PM
Dont sweat it, They definitely aren't making it easy for you.  Certain things (1-1 tie after 9 and 2-2 after 12) you just can't cap.  Hope it comes in like it's supposed to.
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